Upstate/Eastern New York

[DeltaT13]

1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

not even close!

Next weeks storm is a very classic Miller A setup though. That somewhat inland track almost makes sense when you see how far south this trough digs and where the surface low forms.  I mean it’s deep in Mexico!  This storm could actually still phase even better and be deeper....buutt. It’s still 6 days out. We been chasing Epic storms around day 7 for a couple years now and not one has really panned out. 
 

[tim123]

Joe bastardi says pattern for Texas is 1 in a hundred year event for them in regards to snow and cold coming there.

[tim123]

Kevin Williams a local rochester meteorologist says 3 storms next 10 days with lake snows in-between. Said could be a memorable stretch

[LakeEffectKing]

18 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Next weeks storm is a very classic Miller A setup though. That somewhat inland track almost makes sense when you see how far south this trough digs and where the surface low forms.  I mean it’s deep in Mexico!  This storm could actually still phase even better and be deeper....buutt. It’s still 6 days out. We been chasing Epic storms around day 7 for a couple years now and not one has really panned out. 
 

 And she looks impressive out in the Pacific.

 

[Thinksnow18]

25 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

 And she looks impressive out in the Pacific.

 

Yeah me thinks with all the pub this is receiving pretty much on every media already this isn’t just another weenie run that disappears, like the winters have since Matt moved to NY...

[Syrmax]

1 hour ago, tim123 said:

Kevin Williams a local rochester meteorologist says 3 storms next 10 days with lake snows in-between. Said could be a memorable stretch

Except for LES prone areas, we rarely see significant snowstorms after already having a deep base on ground. Usually we melt most of it with a warm up (not this time) or just sublimate in dry conditions (yes)  until the next cutter and mild spell.  So this predisposes me to think the next 7-10 days will play out with some variation of this. Supressed system tomorrow, weak system Sunday, bigger cutter with mixed precip tues/wed then cool down and weak/moderate system following up.  It'll add up the snow totals but be somewhat disappointing.

[BGM Blizzard]

Definitely a nice signal on the EPS...

[tim123]

23 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Except for LES prone areas, we rarely see significant snowstorms after already having a deep base on ground. Usually we melt most of it with a warm up (not this time) or just sublimate in dry conditions (yes)  until the next cutter and mild spell.  So this predisposes me to think the next 7-10 days will play out with some variation of this. Supressed system tomorrow, weak system Sunday, bigger cutter with mixed precip tues/wed then cool down and weak/moderate system following up.  It'll add up the snow totals but be somewhat disappointing.

Thats why it may be a memorable stretch. Cause there won't we huge warm ups or cutters. 

[TugHillMatt]

52 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Except for LES prone areas, we rarely see significant snowstorms after already having a deep base on ground. Usually we melt most of it with a warm up (not this time) or just sublimate in dry conditions (yes)  until the next cutter and mild spell.  So this predisposes me to think the next 7-10 days will play out with some variation of this. Supressed system tomorrow, weak system Sunday, bigger cutter with mixed precip tues/wed then cool down and weak/moderate system following up.  It'll add up the snow totals but be somewhat disappointing.

It's funny...so many on other subs are impressed and excited about how this winter has turned around in great ways for them...so many getting nice events.

And then...there's us..... lol

[tim123]

I could see south shore getting 4 to 8 inches from Thursday morning to sat morning. Most ofcourse near Lake shore in this setup. 

[mississaugasnow]

haha you guys are a tough bunch to please. 

[TugHillMatt]

22 minutes ago, tim123 said:

I could see south shore getting 4 to 8 inches from Thursday morning to sat morning. Most ofcourse near Lake shore in this setup. 

Yeah, looking good for you guys. It will be nice, fluffy stuff.

[BuffaloWeather]

I take it all back, I want more winter. Perfect night on the slopes. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Hey @TugHillMatt just drove through Springville where it snows 24/7.  Everytime I drive through there it is snowing. 2 feet on the ground and moderate snow. Besides redfield I think Springville is one of snowiest cities in the east. 

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Hey @TugHillMatt just drove through Springville where it snows 24/7.  2 feet on the ground and moderate snow. 

Nice! The setup isn't even really "right" for them to be getting moderate snow!!! My goal is to be in Volney in a year or two (20 to 25 minutes north of here) where they average probably close to 200 inches a year.

I just drove through Baldwinsville....where it snows 24 minutes every 7 days. 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Nice! The setup isn't even really "right" for them to be getting moderate snow!!! My goal is to be in Volney in a year or two (20 to 25 minutes north of here) where they average probably close to 200 inches a year.

I just drove through Baldwinsville....where it snows 24 minutes every 7 days. 

 

Springville is definitely around 200" per, every time I drive thru there down to Holiday Valley it's always snowing.

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Springville is definitely around 200" per, every time I drive thru there down to Holiday Valley it's always snowing.

I think it's too late for me...wife won't make another big move to a whole new area...unless it's Florida or Virginia. lol

She's quickly making her way up at her job and is doing great. As much as I love snow, I want to encourage/support her in her professional endeavors. She certainly does for me.

So...I've got to find somewhere more local for a more consistent snow high. (Thought N. Onondaga County would be doable, but man...these past 2 winters have been rough.)

[Thinksnow18]

21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I take it all back, I want more winter. Perfect night on the slopes. 

Those conditions look absolutely perfect.

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

Those conditions look absolutely perfect.

I was a snowboarder for awhile and definitely prefer skiing. Have been doing it last few years and getting so much better. I hit 35 mph today and got 3 feet of air off a jump, baby steps lol

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I think it's too late for me...wife won't make another big move to a whole new area...unless it's Florida or Virginia. lol

She's quickly making her way up at her job and is doing great. As much as I love snow, I want to encourage/support her in her professional endeavors. She certainly does for me.

So...I've got to find somewhere more local for a more consistent snow high. (Thought N. Onondaga County would be doable, but man...these past 2 winters have been rough.)

I selfishly want a poster on here to live in a snowbelt in WNY. I was hoping @lakeeffectkid383 was going to move to Boston but the markets too insane there.

[TugHillMatt]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

I selfishly want a poster on here to live in a snowbelt. I was hoping @lakeeffectkid383 was going to move to Boston but the markets too insane there.

Like Syrmax, I've toyed with the idea of finding something in Worth/Northern Tug Hill.

[BuffaloWeather]

32 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

haha you guys are a tough bunch to please. 

Everyone on here is spoiled in terms of winter weather. We all cry unless we get 100"+ and a couple 2 footers each year. Don't forget we want sustained snow cover for months at a time and temps to never get above 30.

[DeltaT13]

54 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It's funny...so many on other subs are impressed and excited about how this winter has turned around in great ways for them...so many getting nice events.

And then...there's us..... lol

I can’t tell if the bar is just low these recent years, but this winter is already a B- in my book with a lot of time to still go up.  We are in the midst of 4 straight weeks of below normal temps and have had a consistent snowpack the whole time.  That’s pretty rare. If we can get just one of these next three events to at least give us a moderate snow we’ll really be on to something, at least for me 

[Buffalo Bumble]

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

I think it's too late for me...wife won't make another big move to a whole new area...unless it's Florida or Virginia. lol

She's quickly making her way up at her job and is doing great. As much as I love snow, I want to encourage/support her in her professional endeavors. She certainly does for me.

So...I've got to find somewhere more local for a more consistent snow high. (Thought N. Onondaga County would be doable, but man...these past 2 winters have been rough.)

Volney is a great spot (in-laws lived in Fulton up to a couple years ago). But...having spent a lot of time over 20 winters in that area you have to temper snow expectations. Very much boom/bust. When it hits it hits in a big way. Best events in my life have been a few 4”+/hour long duration storms in Fulton (north side of town).  30-50” totals, no problem. But winds have to line up perfect on the WNW vector. And no help from elevation. So you’re still subject to some relative ratters there. Unlike a place like Springville that gets hit from multiple wind flows and gets a nice boost from elevation. 

[Thinksnow18]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I was a snowboarder for awhile and definitely prefer skiing. Have been doing it last few years and getting so much better. I hit 35 mph today and got 3 feet of air off a jump, baby steps lol

I have been a skier since learning in my very early 20’s. I did dabble with snowboarding but I prefer skiing as well. I don’t have much time to hit the slopes anymore, however, I may have piqued my two oldest ones interest to have them take lessons

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Volney is a great spot (in-laws lived in Fulton up to a couple years ago). But...having spent a lot of time over 20 winters in that area you have to temper snow expectations. Very much boom/bust. When it hits it hits in a big way. Best events in my life have been a few 4”+/hour long duration storms in Fulton (north side of town).  30-50” totals, no problem. But winds have to line up perfect on the WNW vector. And no help from elevation. So you’re still subject to some relative ratters there. Unlike a place like Springville that gets hit from multiple wind flows and gets a nice boost from elevation. 

Springville literally gets hit from every wind direction. The place just snows all the time all winter if there is cold weather. It even snows on SW wind there sometimes lol

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

I can’t tell if the bar is just low these recent years, but this winter is already a B- in my book with a lot of time to still go up.  We are in the midst of 4 straight weeks of below normal temps and have had a consistent snowpack the whole time.  That’s pretty rare. If we can get just one of these next three events to at least give us a moderate snow we’ll really be on to something, at least for me 

I think a couple synoptic storms that actually drop more than 3 inches (more like warning-level criteria) would help in improving the grade for this winter.

It's been tough because we went from a horrible pattern with no chance....to a pretty good pattern and still getting missed left and right (at least around here). So many possibilities, but just can't much to click in.

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

I think a couple synoptic storms that actually drop more than 3 inches (more like warning-level criteria) would help in improving the grade for this winter.

It's been tough because we went from a horrible pattern with no chance....to a pretty good pattern and still getting missed left and right (at least around here). So many possibilities, but just can't much to click in.

You're more of a snow depth person though. So this winter should be good for you. About a month straight of double digit depth and looks to extend another 2-3 weeks.

[rochesterdave]

13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Those conditions look absolutely perfect.

Yeah. Those are perfect.

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Volney is a great spot (in-laws lived in Fulton up to a couple years ago). But...having spent a lot of time over 20 winters in that area you have to temper snow expectations. Very much boom/bust. When it hits it hits in a big way. Best events in my life have been a few 4”+/hour long duration storms in Fulton (north side of town).  30-50” totals, no problem. But winds have to line up perfect on the WNW vector. And no help from elevation. So you’re still subject to some relative ratters there. Unlike a place like Springville that gets hit from multiple wind flows and gets a nice boost from elevation. 

Great points. Yeah, I'm learning just how difficult this WNW flow is. We need it here in this area too. The chances are still greater there than in Onondaga county though.

Elevation helps tremendously...which is lacking in this particular area.

Thanks for the suggestions/heads up. Volney may be my best option, at least for the short term.