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Upstate/Eastern New York


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It's like deja vu, litterly lol

Last event you had Rgem, Hrdps and NMMB showing more of  280ish (central Oswego) flow..The rest of guidance (Nssl,arw, hrrr etc) kept it farther south at more of a 290-300 flow..Well they are pretty much all the same for this event lol

Band looks to move around some..

snku_acc.us_ne - 2021-02-09T094147.690.png

snku_acc.us_ne - 2021-02-09T094203.957.png

snku_acc.us_ne - 2021-02-09T094710.179.png

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5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Looking at cameras it looks like another 1.6” on the board since I cleared it so 4.8” total for the event in Amherst. Solid for sure and way more than the forecasted 1-2”. Back to 11” OTG. Deep winter rolls on. 

How did you guys do so much better than us?  I havent watched the radar closely.  ROC has 2" and its winding down.  

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Can’t buy a true LES band in Irondequoit. Not much of a NW winter. We do better with east based cold. This last few weeks has been west based cold. 
When I first bought my place, we had a couple winters 2001-2004 where we’d get this sliver of a band that would hug the shore and just pummel us with fluff. Niziol was still at BUF and I’d send him reports and ask him why we don’t split Monroe into N and S zones like Erie; he told me the truth, what we were seeing was not standard. My neighbors went to Florida one of those years and their car became completely buried under 2.5-3’ of snow, which is the most snow I can recall seeing otg in Irondequoit. 

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9 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

No idea. Best guess is that the dendrites were so perfect it just stacked up beautifully. Literally pure fluff. Probably 25:1 stuff. 

Did you read Syrmax and my posts?  We both measured snow at over 30:1 ratio this morning. That’s lake effect territory. 

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16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Can’t buy a true LES band in Irondequoit. Not much of a NW winter. We do better with east based cold. This last few weeks has been west based cold. 
When I first bought my place, we had a couple winters 2001-2004 where we’d get this sliver of a band that would hug the shore and just pummel us with fluff. Niziol was still at BUF and I’d send him reports and ask him why we don’t split Monroe into N and S zones like Erie; he told me the truth, what we were seeing was not standard. My neighbors went to Florida one of those years and their car became completely buried under 2.5-3’ of snow, which is the most snow I can recall seeing otg in Irondequoit. 

I know the exact winter you’re talking about. Jan-feb 2004.  Basically the entire south shore had a tea kettle or very weak nw flow band setup for literally days on end.  I remember driving along the parkway and the snow was piled up so high I couldn’t even see the lake at times. Hell of a winter.  Also bittersweet because just one year prior I lived directly on the lake up in Charlotte and we didn’t get squat. I moved to henrietta that next year and the lakeshore got buried. 

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Bottom line for this period will be the continuation of a low
confidence forecast as models continue to struggle with the overall
evolution of the large scale pattern.

There are some recent trends however that the large vortex that has
been spinning over southcentral Canada will become dislodged and
drift southeastward over the upper Great Lakes late this week into
the weekend as a trough begins to dig across the West. By late in
the weekend into the start of the new work week, the closed low or
possibly open wave by this point, will move into the
Northeast/southeastern Canada.

Meanwhile at the surface, a wavy/stationary boundary stretching from
the Gulf to the Southeast and Mid Atlantic will lead to the
development of several possible low pressure systems, either riding
up the East Coast or further offshore. The two main drivers of just
where these areas of low pressure will track will be: How far
east/southeast a large area of Canadian high pressure to our
west/northwest builds toward our area, and the position of the
upper closed low/open wave as it slides east/southeast.

Putting it all together with regards to sensible weather; the
next piece of upper level shortwave energy pinwheeling around the
main upper vortex will cross the area Friday morning bringing the
chance for snow showers during this time. Next piece of energy tries
to move in from the southwest late Friday night into Saturday. The
best chance of some showers will be across areas south of Lake
Ontario, as strong high pressure ridged across eastern NY/New
England will try to keep areas east of Lake Ontario mainly dry. The
highest probability for some organized synoptic snowfall during this
period now appears to be Saturday night and Sunday as a
strengthening area of low pressure moves up the eastern seaboard.
The track, speed and strength of this system will determine just how
much snow will fall and how far west it will reach. Conditions may
then relax some for the start of the new work, with just the chance
for some lake effect snow showers downwind of the Lakes. As stated
above, overall forecast confidence during this time period remains
low.

Temperatures will remain below average through the period with
daytime highs in the teens to low 20s, and lows ranging from below
zero across the North Country to the single digits and low teens
elsewhere.
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