wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Cmc squashes it, brings a storm up a couple days later.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The Sunday event kind of reminds me of the event several weeks back, models overdid confluence and the dying primary went into rochester lol Models are trying to find the weakness as there is an extension of HP in the atlantic as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 A little late and just a minor nuisance event for the forum, but with all 0z runs complete, here my thoughts for Today's storm thru 0z Wednesday. For the 3-7" zones, most locations will be on the low end of the range with 3-4.5" commonly observed. The exception will be from the Catskill Park to the hills along CT/MA border where widespread 6-7" amounts are likely. This includes KMSV and KPOU. Elsewhere, a general 1-3 for the most part, with highest concentration of 2-3" amounts along and east of 81. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 0z Euro suppressed for Friday. Here the Sunday storm precip/kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Euro also has this porn for Day 8-9... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: SUffice to say but were gonna have to moisten up as the Temp is 13F and a dp of 2F so I don't know how much of the precip it'll eat up before it starts to precipitate, at least a few hrs worth Id imagine. Yeah more like 8-10 hrs, lol and I thought I was being conservative last night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Very nice steady snow falling with nice flake size. Eyeballing 2 inches or so overnight. Dink and dunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Quite high sn/lq eq throughout the region with this SWFL event. Snow is starting to fall nicely as all the dirt/salt mixture this one horse town drops starts to fade away behind the accumulating snow, nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Does the RGEM have any bias', if anyone knows? This would be a complete kick in the teeth right here but damn its been super consistent so we'll see soon enough I suppose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just measured. More than it looked. 3.2” and coming down nicely! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The band will start out near Wolfie around 7-8 tonight, then there should be a subtle wind shift, which imo, (unlike last event 2 nights ago) will be more NAM like in placement vs. the Canadian counterparts (RGEM/HRDPS) i.e...a more southerly placement. S. Oswego Co. and N. Onondaga Co. are my targets for jackpots, and not Central Oswego Co. what RGEM is showing. Kinda like this for mean placement overnight into tomorrow morning, before lifting north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 44 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Very nice steady snow falling with nice flake size. Eyeballing 2 inches or so overnight. Dink and dunk Odd I’m at 2.1”. Measure again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Odd I’m at 2.1”. Measure again! Just did. On driveway and on snowboard. 3.0” exactly on driveway , was definitley 3.2” on snowboard. Even I was surprised lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Just did. On driveway and on snowboard. 3.0” exactly on driveway , was definitley 3.2” on snowboard. Even I was surprised lol. Well we’ve overachieved twice this week. The dink and dunk has added up to a little more than half a foot. Not bad for some Southern slider and a cold front passage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Snowing hard in Pittsford! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 0.8" at my 7am measurement in Westmoreland. Some light snow falling now. Up to 15.6" for February and 55.5" for the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Once again this isn't a true WNW event.. Actually the winds are a carbon copy of last event.. Obviously doesn't mean it will be the same outcome lol Rgem has been wrong this year, happens to all of them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Snowing marshmallows here which I'm sure everyone is enjoying lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 53 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: The band will start out near Wolfie around 7-8 tonight, then there should be a subtle wind shift, which imo, (unlike last event 2 nights ago) will be more NAM like in placement vs. the Canadian counterparts (RGEM/HRDPS) i.e...a more southerly placement. S. Oswego Co. and N. Onondaga Co. are my targets for jackpots, and not Central Oswego Co. what RGEM is showing. Kinda like this for mean placement overnight into tomorrow morning, before lifting north. That puts it right smack dab over my house bring it on lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Looks a little better than I thought it would.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Hi end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Dang Toss. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 46 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Snowing marshmallows here which I'm sure everyone is enjoying lol Yeah a nice surprise (here). 1.3" at 8am. Ratio is super high. I only had 0.04" liquid, which is like a 32:1 ratio and I'm pretty confident on the measurement. And collection as there is little wind. Unless I did some math wrong when melting and repouring into the graduated cylinder. Which is always possible... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 3.2" overnight and snowing moderate/heavy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 3.2" overnight and snowing moderate/heavy Could we get to 5” today? I’m also at 3.2”...my guess is just shy but these ratios have the Mets confused. 4 to 4.5 is likely and I noticed the NWS did up the aerial amount to 2-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Could we get to 5” today? I’m also at 3.2”...my guess is just shy but these ratios have the Mets confused. 4 to 4.5 is likely and I noticed the NWS did up the aerial amount to 2-4” Yeah we're definitely getting 5" just perfect accumulating snow right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Colder west-northwest flow develops behind the wave tonight allowing lake effect snow to redevelop southeast of the lakes. 850 mb temperatures lowering to near -16C will allow inversion heights to gradually rise. Expect a band of lake effect snow to organize this evening over central or northern Oswego County, then drift south later tonight to southern Oswego County, clipping northern Cayuga County. Several inches of snow will be possible in this area. Lake effect potential looks weaker off Lake Erie with higher terrain seeing around 2 inches. Heavy lake snow will continue beyond this period southeast of Lake Ontario as discussed below. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Secondary front moves through overnight Tuesday with another shot of colder air filtering in over Lake Ontario with H850MB temps falling to around -16C/-18C by early Wednesday morning. This will send lake induced equilibrium levels up to 6-8K feet through mid-afternoon Wednesday then start to lower by late Wednesday. Moisture extending through the DGZ found beneath the inversion will allow for ideal large dendrite conglomerates with snow ratios likely exceeding 25:1 in this environment. Wind flow will make some adjustments over the course of this event but will likely provide enough residence time under WNW flow to produce warning criteria for NE Cayuga and SE Oswego county. This continues to be supported by the 09/00Z RGEM/Canadian-NH/NAM and HRRR, based on latest guidance and CIPS analogs have issued a LES Warning through Wednesday night. Off Lake Erie, very little is anticipated with a less then favorable supporting environment. Very little moisture extending through the DGZ and the shorter fetch under WNW flow will likely not support much in the way of accumulating snows. Although, there could be some snow showers early in the morning Wednesday, then drier air and a lowering inversion shuts any activity down by Wednesday afternoon. Not forgotten, there is a weak wave that ripples by to our south late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. It appears right now that most if not all precipitation associated with this system will likely scurry along the NY/PA boarder clipping the S. Tier. Wednesday night, lake snows off Lake Ontario will continue throughout a majority of the night. It likely won`t be until late in the night that wind flow turns more northerly which then weaken the band and pushes it onshore. This could possibly bringing some lighter accumulations to areas along and near the Lake Ontario shorelines of northeastern Orleans, Monroe and Wayne counties, before falling apart as it moves further inland by early Thursday morning. Expect an additional few inches across northeastern Wayne, northern Cayuga and southwestern Oswego counties, with an inch or so along the northeastern Orleans to northwestern Wayne County shorelines Wednesday night. Aside from a few lingering lake effect snow showers south of Lake Ontario Thursday morning, expect a mainly dry, but seasonally cold day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 51 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Yeah a nice surprise (here). 1.3" at 8am. Ratio is super high. I only had 0.04" liquid, which is like a 32:1 ratio and I'm pretty confident on the measurement. And collection as there is little wind. Unless I did some math wrong when melting and repouring into the graduated cylinder. Which is always possible... I measured at 8:15 and my measurements matched yours almost exactly. I had 1.4 inches on 0.04 liquid. That is 35:1, very lake effectesque. Snow has let up to almost nothing right now, hopefully we’ll get another burst before the synoptic snow ends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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