Thinksnow18 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: We've had 5 consecutive days with sun here. (Yesterday was filtered sun.) It's done a number on our snowpack. Yeah I keep having to remind myself that it’s February. The sun angle is getting a bit higher now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 In one run, less than 24 hours from when it begins...we went from this to.... This...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's a confusing map/timeline. Nobody's getting that by 12 pm tomorrow. Plus, I think his map is giving way too much of a NW to SE orientation. It's going to be more westerly . I would bump that 1 to 2 inch line up to Clay. That's the farthest south it will get is my guess. Perhaps if the convergence works out, N. Onondaga can get into it a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Rgem FWIW. Still a little bit out there. Keeps LES going into Thursday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Yeah it looks like the RGEM is an exact opposite of all other guidance for tomorrow night, interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of over 9 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties. * WHEN...From late Tuesday evening through late Wednesday nightin this againg. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times with snow covered roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute on Wednesday. Yeah, Im definitely not buying into this again but at least they are now seeing the potential! I knew this period would eventually lead to some kind of flags, nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Rgem was on its own last night to lol 3k as of now also looks 280 ish.. Not that it's gonna help me anyway lol Actually makes it worse, missing just to the south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 We'll know tomorrow night when it starts to form and we'll know real quick who's gonna get what, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: We'll know tomorrow night when it starts to form and we'll know real quick who's gonna get what, lol! The only thing we know is who will NOT be getting it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: The only thing we know is who will NOT be getting it.... Yeah you and I, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah you and I, lol! (just no snow bands) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Gfs holds onto the primary this run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 That late weekend storm is really going to be a nail biter. Its amazing that its bouncing from a cutter to nearly missing us from run to run. It's all about that giant lobe of the PV and the h500 heights. When the storm cuts, There is a phase with a smaller shortwave and the predominate h500 low situated over the PV. When the storm misses east, it doesnt Phase. Very subtle differences but still enough time to wiggle out of the cutter scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 And that's what happens when Surface/Ull ride inland lol I would expect it to transfer earlier with that confluence though..So we'll see.. Next run will be in bermuda lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: And that's what happens when Surface/Ull ride inland lol I would expect it to transfer earlier with that confluence though..So we'll see.. The HP is 1042!!! I don’t know how it plows into that but ya never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs holds onto the primary this run lol It holds on to it longer but I'd imagine it still has to redevelop so I can't see it redeveloping and the primary remaining the dominant feature so we'll see but I can't see that scenario playing out quite like the GFS is showing but its the weather so anything can happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A winter storm will move from the Mid-Atlantic to the east coast overnight, spreading snow across our terminals. Visibilities will drop to between 2SM and 5SM with ceilings around 1500-2500 feet after the snow arrives. This doesn't even make sense, lol, the storm will move from the Mid-Atl to the East Coast, seriously?? Maybe they mean the Midwest, lol?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Down to 13 degrees already here. Hopefully ratios help out with tomorrow's storm. Kuchera might be overdoing it a bit with the near 20-25:1 ratio, but I could definitely see this being a bit of an overperformer across at least south central NY over to E NY esp the Catskill region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 18z Euro for tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z Euro for tomorrow... Unreal!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Any way we can get this to come farther northward like all the other events this season? Probably not, since that would put us in the bull's eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z Euro for tomorrow... Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Jim Teske on channel 9 brings the axis of the lake effect into southern Oswego County tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Jim Teske on channel 9 brings the axis of the lake effect into southern Oswego County tomorrow night. Looks like he includes the rte. 31 corridor as the line...hard to tell though with the fading white color. @Syrmax may actually have the best chance out of our group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Looks like he includes the rte. 31 corridor as the line...hard to tell though with the fading white color. @Syrmax may actually have the best chance out of our group. We might get a couple inches. Not holding my breath but the possibility is there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GEFS mean.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: crazy spread, but big time potential. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 GSB Cities The 2020 - 2021 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time Last Season Normal Seasons Average All Time Season Snowfall Record Binghamton 79.5 51.7 53.7 83.4 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017) Buffalo 55.6 66.9 50.7 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977) Syracuse 47.6 84.3 60.9 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993) Albany 47.5 38.5 38.9 60.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971) Rochester 43.8 63.7 73.0 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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