Syrmax Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Canadian and German model still holding the line vs US and European output. Still early in the modelology game. Beyond about 120 hrs is still basically fantasy range. I give more cred to the GFS as long as it has Euro support, which it currently does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 GFS delivers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Canadian fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 GEM delivers but less LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Watch the next piece of energy in the rockies. Battle in models what one it wants to develop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The top analog for this weekend is 12/24/2001 Man an inch of QPF would equate to about 18” of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Globals that keep them separate have obviously more LES but isolated.. Ukie is like the gfs interrupts it on Tues with a light synoptic system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Something told me to check this thread. Crap... Might be wagons west time... How much did you get with last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 @wolfie09 Update your signature snowfall total, its bothering my ocd. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 GEFS through Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 KBUF has general idea of LES starting north of city and drifting south into central erie. 80% pops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: GEFS through Tuesday Not too impressive here at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The progs for the Canadian and icon that Wolfie posted are 2 separate waves. The Canadian is for the wave behind the Sunday wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Nice LES signature all week on the GEFS mean with some synoptic thrown in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 10.5”. It was a nice long duration event. I’m really just starting to look at the LES potential—like in the last hour lol. Y’all do a great job discussing potential. Sounds like there’s less clarity right now on what takes place in the next week given recent model runs. I was really hoping for 6-7’ LOL. Yeah LES most of the time is last minute stuff as there are so many variables. We will definitely have one ingredient in cold air, the rest is up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Not too impressive here at all. You’re not looking for lake effect on those ensembles are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Para is a no go for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah LES most of the time is last minute stuff as there are so many variables. We will definitely have one ingredient in cold air, the rest is up in the air. I see what you did there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Right. I like weenieing out here but I know how it goes. LES is the quintessential mesoscale tracking event. A lot of trying to fit pieces together to realize potential, especially for the high end stuff. Looking forward to the conversation the next few days. Hopefully the lakes region gets smoked. I really enjoy this subforum. Yeah need to get the higher res in range. The first event is almost there, the 2nd event is still way too far out. There will be some insane snow depths off the tug by next weekend though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: KBUF has general idea of LES starting north of city and drifting south into central erie. 80% pops. That’s 15 hours over the metro area in some form... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Euro looking good for first event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Nws has R/S with the CF but models have definitely trended colder..Could see a quick burst, squall line? Maybe a quick 2"-3".. A little from this storm is included..(ksyr south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Look at that cyclonic flow, just perfect setup for 1st event. (slightly dry) But that low pressure is close enough IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: GEFS through Tuesday lol, nearly all of them have a hole right over ROC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Quite the difference from the Canadian and icon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Second round on the euro starts right after the N stream moves through, early afternoon Sunday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Second round on the euro starts right after the N stream moves through, early afternoon Sunday.. First round of LES looks fantastic on Euro. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Euro is all over the place, synoptically, over the past day. Gone from a bomb over NYC Mon/Tues to suppressed storm to now a bit of a weaker cutter look that rolls over NY State. Full spectrum inconsistencies. Prob can't figure out which wave interaction to develop, and where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 European trying to rain on our parade on Tuesday lol Guidance is showing another synoptic potential D6.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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