BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Well this is a change. CPC actually has colder then normal temps for all of February! Feels like forever since I made a thread with below normal forecasted temps. Looks like after this snowstorm we get a little cutter and some cold arctic air behind it which should set the stage for a long duration LES event. A nice -EPO setting up allows some really cold air to make it into our area. Thursday night into Friday, an area of low pressure will track northeast across the Central Great Lakes, occluding in the process. Precipitation will overspread the region as the area of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. First the warm front associated with the system will track northeast across the area through Friday morning, followed by the cold front for the late morning into the afternoon. Temperatures on Friday will be a bit warmer in the lower elevations, resulting in rain or a mix of rain and snow. The higher elevations should stay mostly snow for the day on Friday. As the cold front passing over the area, and cold air advection brings temps down, any remaining rain will change over to snow. Behind the passing cold front, 850H temps in the -10C to -15C range will help support the potential for a lake response off of both lakes. Potential lake enhanced and then lake effect would continue through most of Saturday. A wave of low pressure and trailing cold front will track across the area on Sunday, bringing a return to cold temperatures once again. Lake effect behind this passing system also looks possible with 850H temps dropping to -15C Sunday night, and cooling even more so from there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 This looks to MAYBE be a 2015 redux? That was an epic month where I believe KBUF reported 40” of snow and in March 1st would’ve sworn it was January 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: This looks to MAYBE be a 2015 redux? That was an epic month where I believe KBUF reported 40” of snow and in March 1st would’ve sworn it was January 1st This one looks to start with a pretty large LES in February, pretty rare for WNY as the lake is usually frozen. That month was primarily synoptic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Yes it was. I guess I’m just thinking if the amount of snow and almost wall to wall cold. I think I heard Mike Cejka on 4 this morning say high temps in the single digits early next week? That’s legit finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Yes it was. I guess I’m just thinking if the amount of snow and almost wall to wall cold. I think I heard Mike Cejka on 4 this morning say high temps in the single digits early next week? That’s legit finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 Canadian is identical to GFS. 2 lake effect snow events in the next 10 days. Icon is nearly the same too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Everyone can thank the strong SSW event for this... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 20 minutes ago, vortmax said: Everyone can thank the strong SSW event for this... Yep. And I know he a bit off on his ideas, but, Cohen says another event took place yesterday over he Arctic, thus could be our future for the next 4-6 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Next 10 days on the Canadian.. Obviously some is from tomorrow but most east-NE of the lakes is LES and what ever SW round the trough.. Looks like fluctuating winds, subject to change a thousand times.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Next 10 days on the Canadian.. Obviously some is from tomorrow but most east-NE of the lakes is LES and what ever SW round the trough.. Looks like fluctuating winds, subject to change a thousand times.. Yeah. It's the best setup of the year if it wasn't for a lake in the process of freezing. I still think 2-4' totals in the next 2 weeks off both lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 @wolfie09 Euro looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 Well aligned flow, -15 to -17 850s. Moisture is only thing I'm worried about. It looks decent though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 So...hours 150 to 180 look to be a little interesting on the euro... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Yeah beat me to it lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I need a cigarette after that euro run and I don’t smoke. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So...hours 150 to 180 look to be a little interesting on the euro... Looks alright I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, 96blizz said: I need a cigarette after that euro run and I don’t smoke. Talk about a near perfect track for rochester. What euro showed would be a blizzard for rochester 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Talk about a near perfect track for rochester. What euro showed would be a blizzard for rochester I want this to be true. Snow on the ground in 8-9 days. Forecasted snow depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: Talk about a near perfect track for rochester. What euro showed would be a blizzard for rochester And its not even in fantasy land, quite intriguing. That's the Miller A we've been dreaming of. Frustratingly, that is the weekend of my annual Whiteface ski trip, that of course it's canceled this year. I will flip my shit if they get 3 feet of snow the first time I'm not there in the last decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: I want this to be true. Snow on the ground in 8-9 days. Forecasted snow depth. I can promise you that 8.1” at KBUF is about 2x’s too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Gfs and cmc are all showing alot of energy at same time frame. What euro is showing would be 40 to 50 mph winds entire state. Probally higher in areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I'll believe when I see it lol 967mb over SNE.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Euro 48 hour precip for storm duration. Definitely picks up on some enhancement off LO. Will see what EPS shows in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Euro 48 hour precip for storm duration. Definitely some enhancement off LO... Post in Storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah beat me to it lol Boom. With 850s -15 to -25 during the event? Dang... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 That's for D7/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: Post in Storm thread. No its for the possible storm around day 7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Crazy looking band haha Probably some IVT.. But yeah plenty of energy around, getting them to fit together is the hard part.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 18 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: And its not even in fantasy land, quite intriguing. That's the Miller A we've been dreaming of. Frustratingly, that is the weekend of my annual Whiteface ski trip, that of course it's canceled this year. I will flip my shit if they get 3 feet of snow the first time I'm not there in the last decade. That is a Classic Miller A look. Energy comes ashore in BC...system drops SE and then rounds the base of the trough and heads NE. Classic look. Hope it's right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 15 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: No its for the possible storm around day 7. Dang. Missed that!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now