tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 .00000000001 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I am feeling this line we see on radar is going to be "the wall" in which there is snow and not much snow. It's been training over this same path for several hours. Even here IN the echoes it's been a virga storm all afternoon. I feel the bust potential is huge with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Thats Exactly where models are showing most accumulating snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Here a couple of the best frames off the 18z hrdps for you south shore and thruway folks. Run almost done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: I am feeling this line we see on radar is going to be "the wall" in which there is snow and not much snow. It's been training over this same path for several hours. Even here IN the echoes it's been a virga storm all afternoon. I feel the bust potential is huge with this one. Seems to me that most models didn't have us getting much snow until later tonight and tomorrow in sort of a wraparound feature. I've been thinking this is mainly a Tuesday storm for us so i'm not going down the dark path. Yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steffen Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Noticeable uptick in intensity in the past hour. Moderate snow now. It never actually stopped completely today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Seems to me that most models didn't have us getting much snow until later tonight and tomorrow in sort of a wraparound feature. I've been thinking this is mainly a Tuesday storm for us so i'm not going down the dark path. Yet. Agree completely right here. Nearly every single Meso model looks the same over “roughly” the same area. The “virga” up here wasn’t even modeled at all. That band is coming for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Ithica may be jack pot zone. Thats what I am thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 18z HRDPS... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Tonight's 00z will be telling from the meso models. Thanks for the maps and dealing with us asking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Seems to me that most models didn't have us getting much snow until later tonight and tomorrow in sort of a wraparound feature. I've been thinking this is mainly a Tuesday storm for us so i'm not going down the dark path. Yet. 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: Agree completely right here. Nearly every single Meso model looks the same over “roughly” the same area. The “virga” up here wasn’t even modeled at all. That band is coming for us. Hope you guys are right...burned way too many times. I sure would love the HRDPS to come true. The latest RAP looked meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Looking at that map looks like a 15 to one ratio. I could see that. Particularly cause upstairs is pretty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hope you guys are right...burned way too many times. I sure would love the HRDPS to come true. The latest RAP looked meh. We all have man. I grew up in Monmouth County in NJ. It was torturous. No matter what happens give me a bust and less snow than a whiff or rain when snow is 30 miles away!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I just saw channel 3’s forecast. Their in house model doesn’t show snow starting in Syracuse until around 10 tonight. The heaviest snow will be between midnight and mid morning tomorrow. Lighter snow during the day then another burst tomorrow night tapering Wednesday morning. 6-12 over Syracuse, 3-6 over southern Oswego County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z HRDPS... If this crazy son of a bitch is right I'll do a snow angel in the middle of the street. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 The coast from Central jersey south may as well be atlanta. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: We all have man. I grew up in Monmouth County in NJ. It was torturous. No matter what happens give me a bust and less snow than a whiff or rain when snow is 30 miles away!! Grew up in Lancaster County, PA...that was pretty torturous for a winter lover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Channel 9’s snowfall forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Channel 9’s snowfall forecast. Pretty conservative and fair. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 3" new at East Aurora today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Came home from work in Hamburg where there was maybe half an inch of new snow if that. Home in Amherst looks about 2” new snow. Would go out and shovel but hurt my back at work today so I’m gonna be out of shoveling commission for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Rates are approaching 1"/hr I'd estimate for the first time this storm... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 55 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Pretty conservative and fair. Yeah that looks like a good map in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 25 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Came home from work in Hamburg where there was maybe half an inch of new snow if that. Home in Amherst looks about 2” new snow. Would go out and shovel but hurt my back at work today so I’m gonna be out of shoveling commission for a while. Yup we overachieved in the north towns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 @tim12318z Euro... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 18 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: @tim12318z Euro... Nice uptick IMBY this evening on some guidance. Right on the line of decent storm and big hit. Gonna be fun to watch evolve either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 19 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: @tim12318z Euro... Euro has definitely been the stingiest model with QPf up here. Still think it struggles with the lake enhancement the mesos are seeing. We will know soon enough! Thanks for the prolific map posting @BGM Blizzard!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Yeah seriously, big shout out to @BGM Blizzard for all the maps. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Side note, def gonna be some 30+ totals out of Northern Poconos east/southeast of Scranton in Carbon, Monroe, and Pike County region. They been getting banded for hours now with no end in site. Models def pegged that one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: Nothing beats what rochester got in March 1999. 43 to 50 inches in 3 days. Was amazing. Mix of synoptic and lake enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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