rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Can anyone post the high Rez HRDPS qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I am quickly learning Syracuse sucks synoptically. I expressed my concerns about this a couple days ago and some said downsloping doesn't occur here. WNW winds are the only thing that seem to be able to produce here Lol Syracuse doesn't suck synoptically. It's literally the best city in New York for synoptic/LES combo. There is a reason they average more per year then any city in USA with 100k people. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Yup. Snow hole over the Cuse is only getting bigger. Legit just closed the blinds and getting off of here for a bit. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Lol Syracuse doesn't suck synoptically. It's literally the best city in New York for synoptic/LES combo. There is a reason they average more per year then any city in USA with 100k people. They did until I moved here. Lol. It's been horrible bad luck. Sorry... getting off now because I am irritated and am done filling everyone's morning with negativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Basically every model has upped qpf for south shore for the 12z run. I can’t recall a last second boost like this. I think it portends good things! Snowing moderately in Irondequoit. Better than it looks on radar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Can anyone post the high Rez HRDPS qpf? It dries up by 15z Wednesday... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Here we go. Now they see what I’ve been yammering on about ALL week. Let’s GO! Second issue is from mid afternoon through early evening concerning a period of heavy snow for especially Monroe, Wayne and Ontario counties. This would include Rochester Metro and specifically the commute home this afternoon. All high-res models very insistent on backing swath of moderate to heavy snow over North Country /eastern Lake Ontario over this area during this time. Snowfall rates 1-2 inches per hour likely which will result in a very rough commute in the Rochester area. Going to start messaging this potential and will look into whether warning will be needed as seems at least possible some spots will see 7+ inches in less than 12 hours (warning critiera) and even if we fall just short of this, the impact to the commute could be significant enough to justify. So far the snow is having a hard time moving west, but radar trends do indicate it is starting to do this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: It dries up by 15z Wednesday... Man. It’s been insistent. This would be awesome on top of what we gotten! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Nice hope it works out. Where is Tim??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Here we go. Now they see what I’ve been yammering on about ALL week. Let’s GO! Second issue is from mid afternoon through early evening concerning a period of heavy snow for especially Monroe, Wayne and Ontario counties. This would include Rochester Metro and specifically the commute home this afternoon. All high-res models very insistent on backing swath of moderate to heavy snow over North Country /eastern Lake Ontario over this area during this time. Snowfall rates 1-2 inches per hour likely which will result in a very rough commute in the Rochester area. Going to start messaging this potential and will look into whether warning will be needed as seems at least possible some spots will see 7+ inches in less than 12 hours (warning critiera) and even if we fall just short of this, the impact to the commute could be significant enough to justify. So far the snow is having a hard time moving west, but radar trends do indicate it is starting to do this. Finally some recognition...geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 0.8 inch since 8 AM puts me over 4 inches for the “storm”. I really was only expecting 4-6 inches so I’m just about there. Hope I can make it to 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 In and out of moderate snow here, little donut hole to my north, hope it stays away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: In and out of moderate snow here, little donut hole to my north, hope it stays away lol That band east of Onondaga is finally making some westward progress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Here we go. Now they see what I’ve been yammering on about ALL week. Let’s GO! Second issue is from mid afternoon through early evening concerning a period of heavy snow for especially Monroe, Wayne and Ontario counties. This would include Rochester Metro and specifically the commute home this afternoon. All high-res models very insistent on backing swath of moderate to heavy snow over North Country /eastern Lake Ontario over this area during this time. Snowfall rates 1-2 inches per hour likely which will result in a very rough commute in the Rochester area. Going to start messaging this potential and will look into whether warning will be needed as seems at least possible some spots will see 7+ inches in less than 12 hours (warning critiera) and even if we fall just short of this, the impact to the commute could be significant enough to justify. So far the snow is having a hard time moving west, but radar trends do indicate it is starting to do this. I'll believe it when I see it. 7+ inches, give me a ****ing break. 1-2" on the high end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Colossal BUST! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I mean is no one at that office actually looking at the radar and what is happening. There has been heavy snow heading in our direction for 12 hours now and none has made it here yet. There is obviously impressive subsidence and dry air to contend with. Current radar is drying up as fast as it has been all morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 The radar is just maddening. Looks like theres some kind of forcefield overhead that won't allow snow to fall, weird! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I mean is no one at that office actually looking at the radar and what is happening. There has been heavy snow heading in our direction for 12 hours now and none has made it here yet. There is obviously impressive subsidence and dry air to contend with. Current radar is drying up as fast as it has been all morning. no doubt, and some are still drinking the koolaid, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 If all the precip I've seen on radar, the past couple days actually fell, then maybe we'd have a few to several inches but damn, talk about a mostly virga storm, WOW! Look at the North Country where snow wasn't even forecasted, lol, just unreal. The models did absolutely horrific with this event and they continue to print out snow for the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 ...HEAVY SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING... Snow will increase by mid afternoon and become heavy by late afternoon into early this evening. Snowfall rates after 3 PM over 1 inch per hour are expected. Since the heavy snow will occur from late afternoon into the early evening, expect a very slow evening commute in some areas. Give yourself extra time to reach your destination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 18 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I mean is no one at that office actually looking at the radar and what is happening. There has been heavy snow heading in our direction for 12 hours now and none has made it here yet. There is obviously impressive subsidence and dry air to contend with. Current radar is drying up as fast as it has been all morning. Starting to get concerned about this. Shouldn't this have been firing by now if we were going to get significant returns in Monroe County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Look at that band thats just sitting over Jefferson and Lewis county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 25 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Colossal BUST! How much have you gotten and how much were you expecting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Here was the NWS AFD yesterday lol Now they forecast what guidance is showing so hard for me to put blame lol Expect accumulations to be limited to 2-4 inches for most of Jefferson and Lewis counties spread over 36 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Here was the NWS AFD yesterday lol Now they forecast what guidance is showing so hard for me to put blame lol Expect accumulations to be limited to 2-4 inches for most of Jefferson and Lewis counties spread over 36 hours. Gonna get that in 1-2 hrs...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Here was the 12z nam lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Here was the 12z nam lmao Wow, thats just Nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Here was the 12z nam lmao Hmm, still likes 5-6" for me. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Looks like precip is going a bit farther north west than was predicted. Thats good thing. All the meso models increases precip for roc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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