Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 19 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Snow picked back up here again after another nice little burst between 12 and 1. Very cool to watch the radar and see snow moving due east down the 90. Don’t see that very often! Yeah I’m starting to think there’s an inverted trough back over the Niagara frontier. That LP from yesterday that hit the Midwest has decayed over our area and could be a conveyer for moisture back further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Unfortunately Oswego County looks to stay that way. Crazy combo of dry mid levels and down sloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 We'll be alright but its just gonna take a bit longer is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Where abouts in Oswego county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just North of the great northern mall so very close to he county border of Onondaga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Going to be a brutal cut in Oswego County. According to models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Yeah, Im not so certain but we'll definitely see where that cutoff sets up as I'm really interested in seeing if the models can actually verify for once, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 They've been pretty insistent that Northern Oswego gets skunked so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I think these models need to be reevaluated and have some serious dollars put into a one model supercomputer. The snow to our west looks decent over Lake Erie and northern Ohio WAS MODELED NOWHERE! the snow over WNY, albeit light, was modeled nowhere...now they’re STILL not even admit their error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Can some post hrdps when it comes out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Once you get north of syracuse proper the snow goes down on almost all guidance except the Canadians.. It's just more pronounced in the northern part of the county lol I'm 40 miles north of syracuse, it's the southern part of the county that will have the tight cutoff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Rgem i see upped roc a tic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Finally reached the 4.0" mark for running total. Probably 0.5"/hr rate currently and hopefully that's now sustained for a good while after inconsistent and unsteady rates since the snow restarted around noon. Temp now 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Can some post hrdps when it comes out? No problem. 18z hasn't initialized yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 According to the NWS this morning it's over a 36 hour period lol Nothing to write home about in my book, they have 1" each 12 hr period haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Got a snow map for rgem 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: No problem. 18z hasn't initialized yet. Got a kuchie map for rgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Got a snow map for rgem Got a kuchie map for rgem? 18z RGEM 10k 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 That model is just something else. I really doubt we see anywheres near what their forecasting, so we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Yeah it would be nice but it's an outlier and I don't roll with outliers lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: That model is just something else. I really doubt we see anywheres near what their forecasting, so we'll see! I'm still sticking with my 5" ROC and 6" Syracuse, 11" BGM idea. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Here was the 3k.. Now it may be downsloping me to much lol But you never know.. I'd go 1"-3"..But looks nothing like the Rgem..(For portions of the lake) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Syrmax said: I'm still sticking with my 5" ROC and 6" Syracuse, 11" BGM idea. Sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Radar out of Exeter, Ontario. You can see the lake enhancement starting. That’s the key for south shore. Especially Roc to SYR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 UBER cold over WNY tomorrow at the 850. Each run is colder. This could be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Winds are starting to pick up here. Hopefully that doesn't hurt the ratios too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Radar out of Exeter, Ontario. You can see the lake enhancement starting. That’s the key for south shore. Especially Roc to SYR. I think they’re HEAVILY under doing the whole Lake Ontario south shore...I got more snow today than was anywhere near modeled, and no 2” is nothing but it was supposed to be zero, so I’m saying a 5” total by Wednesday morning. That’s easily within reach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 @tim123 you're gonna like the 18z HRDPS. Its really lighting up the South Shore this run. Hopefully it's right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 , @Syrmax, you were right when you said Northern Onondaga county nickels and dimes its way to average. Almost ALWAYS on the border of decent snows here. I see this one will be no different. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I see icon brings .5 all the way back to ne niagara county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 23 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Winds are starting to pick up here. Hopefully that doesn't hurt the ratios too bad. I'd like it if we had any ratios up here...Virga ratio...undefined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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