PerintonMan Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 It's cheating to throw in a prediction after kickoff, but here goes anyway. This is predicated on a fairly sharp E/W cutoff and spotty LES off of Ontario on the northerly flow. BUF: 2" ROC: 6" (could be anywhere from 2 to 10" and I wouldn't be surprised) SYR: 16" (I think they just get into the main synoptic action) BGM: 18" ALB: 15" NYC: 22" Jackpot: Somewhere between Allentown and Poughkeepsie: 32" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 NYC about to get into some very heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Looking at visible sat this low is super tucked. Almost touching jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 Watch that megaband come through! Has to be well over a foot here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 18 minutes ago, 96blizz said: That radar has zero model support. Solid! This storm is modeling itself 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Looks like low just east of cape may nj about 30 40 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: It's cheating to throw in a prediction after kickoff, but here goes anyway. This is predicated on a fairly sharp E/W cutoff and spotty LES off of Ontario on the northerly flow. BUF: 2" ROC: 6" (could be anywhere from 2 to 10" and I wouldn't be surprised) SYR: 16" (I think they just get into the main synoptic action) BGM: 18" ALB: 15" NYC: 22" Jackpot: Somewhere between Allentown and Poughkeepsie: 32" Well your KBUF one is gonna bust low as I’m already at 1.8” for the day and the real show is tomorrow into Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: I wouldn't be surprised at all if ROC west gets skunked like that, but that is way, way underdoing the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Looks like 12"-18" so far in some parts of jersey/PA.. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=PHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Watch that megaband come through! Has to be well over a foot here right now. About 10 min from my old neighborhood. Crushed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 An inch or so this morning and then the sun came out with flurries for the past two hours. Looks like it might start up again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Damn that's a great feed from down in the City. Jelly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 LIttle streamers forming on LO. The lake wants to play. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 That our one big hope. Vort let's hope we get a assist from lake. Out in Chicago they where forecasting no lake enhanced for storm cause its to warm. They where like 30 31 for entire storm. But they got good lake enhanced precip though. Sw Wisconsin ne Illinois. Where forecasting 6 to 9 some areas got over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: That our one big hope. Vort let's hope we get a assist from lake. Out in Chicago they where forecasting no lake enhanced for storm cause its to warm. They where like 30 31 for entire storm. But they got good lake enhanced precip though. Sw Wisconsin ne Illinois. Where forecasting 6 to 9 some areas got over a foot. Agreed. When looking at the loop, you can see the streamers started up by the St. Lawrence, but as moisture decreased, they shrunk. As new moisture streams north, they should get reinvigorated. Pushing NW nicely and ahead of schedule from my perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Hrrr says mixing gets into the city by 3-4 pm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I know its late in game for globals but euro has rochester back up to .6 precip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Agreed. When looking at the loop, you can see the streamers started up by the St. Lawrence, but as moisture decreased, they shrunk. As new moisture streams north, they should get reinvigorated. Pushing NW nicely and ahead of schedule from my perspective. Snowing again in Skaneateles. Definitely ahead of schedule and the NYC crews are calling bust on the monster amounts. Reminds me of March 2017 (and I was in NJ). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Looks to me some dry-slotting about to happen: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: Snowing again in Skaneateles. Definitely ahead of schedule and the NYC crews are calling bust on the monster amounts. Reminds me of March 2017 (and I was in NJ). NYC is already at monster amounts. Look at those cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Allentown to Catskills looks to be jackpot zone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: NYC is already at monster amounts. Look at those cars. I’m talking the 25-30” amounts some were calling for. They definitely are having and awesome storm! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Because of the under-forecasted snow this AM, I think that more of the moisture that moves in from the SE will hit the ground (and sooner) as it's already been primed a bit. Hoping this translates to more LE as well. DPs here raised from 13 @ 3am to 21 now and keeping steady. 88% humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Euero bumped up precip in roc to .6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Very interesting features in vis sat. You can see spin in old low in Ohio moving south now. And a spin in clouds in south Carolina moving south east. Lots of energy spinning that will come swinging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 12z euro fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I like how it got rid of insane cutoff to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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