SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The UKMET might be more like the CMC. I don’t have specific graphics yet but the 72-96 positions suggest a near miss to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The models underestimated the SE Ridge, now they are correcting north. Sunday is going to be another snowstorm. If there are thunderstorms blowing up in the SE on Saturday into Sunday, the latent and sensible heat release aloft is going to pump the ridge up even more WOW,,,were you hacked by MJO ??? Asking for a few friends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The models underestimated the SE Ridge, now they are correcting north. Sunday is going to be another snowstorm. If there are thunderstorms blowing up in the SE on Saturday into Sunday, the latent and sensible heat release aloft is going to pump the ridge up even more Who are you and what have you done with snowman19? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET might be more like the CMC. I don’t have specific graphics yet but the 72-96 positions suggest a near miss to me doesn't even look near - BUT that being said until some of these foreign based models get on board especially the Canadian and EURO I'm less then 50 % invested in this event right now......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: doesn't even look near - BUT that being said until some of these foreign based models get on board especially the Canadian and EURO I'm less then 50 % invested in this event right now......... Further northwest compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Further northwest compared to 0z Yeah by quite a bit, right? Good trends today all around, as I see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Further northwest compared to 0z Way NW of 0Z.. 250 miles or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 When the NAVGEM shows this... usually a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 40 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Who are you and what have you done with snowman19? We actually have a good pattern now for the first time in a winter and a half 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 EURO will be NW of 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 all aboard EURO at 12Z -this event is legit now IMO....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, mikem81 said: EURO will be NW of 0Z It’s basically a coastal scraper. And it’s frigging flying too. This thing is going to have the after burners going lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Coastal grazer on new gfs for us. Mid Atlantic gets hit good. ...love the coastal grazers..better chance of a all snow event.especially for us east enders.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Euro is a couple inches. Good sign, and I bet it will be more robust tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, tim said: ...love the coastal grazers..better chance of a all snow event.especially for us east enders.. probably a 2-4 or 4-8 type event if it all works out. Some people are rooting for a phase but that's probably a change to rain on the coast if it's too amped 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, tim said: ...love the coastal grazers..better chance of a all snow event.especially for us east enders.. there is a chance the guidance might not be through adjusting west yet since it just began the last couple model cycles - remember the EURO was showing this a few days ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Still time for it to come NW enough for most of us to get a few inches and possibly more near the coast. The nature of this being an Arctic wave means it won’t be a long lasting event- it won’t amplify like crazy and slow down. This wouldn’t be the kind of storm for huge amounts, maybe 6-8” type stuff at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 This is definitely a miller A. Origins are from the gulf. Could be loaded with moisture despite being a fast mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This is definitely a miller A. Origins are from the gulf. Could be loaded with moisture despite being a fast mover. If it does I would agree with the idea of 6-10 as a high end despite the fast movement—mainly focused on the coastal areas perhaps? Otherwise 3-6/4-8 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: If it does I would agree with the idea of 6-10 as a high end despite the fast movement—mainly focused on the coastal areas perhaps? Otherwise 3-6/4-8 event Yes it's a southern stream wave, but embedded in a fast pattern and not slowing down/amplifying too much. NAM would be the best outcome obviously but at this range it can be too amped. Hopefully others trend NW again at 18z/0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yes it's a southern stream wave, but embedded in a fast pattern and not slowing down/amplifying too much. NAM would be the best outcome obviously but at this range it can be too amped. Hopefully others trend NW again at 18z/0z. Either way it’s actually a bit of a legit shock to see a pack-reinforcing storm to be coming so close behind such a “massive” blizzard as last weekend was, even if this looks more like a moderate event at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Roughly 19 ECMWF ensembles members are hits. 3-4 are actually so far west they are wet for the coast. The other 25-28 are more or less misses or nothing notable. It seems more or less the ensembles are going big or going nothing at all. The 19 hits more or less show 6 inch plus events. That’s ALOT of more or lesses by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Lots of hits on these as well. (half of GEPS and most GEFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Significant western lean on the GEFS cluster there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Nam might be even more west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Holy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam might be even more west still adjusting left - just remember that 979 low on the coast south of us from the Sunday run of the EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I'm SO confused. I've never heard of any winter where two 10"+ snowstorms impacted the NYC Metro area a week apart. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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