MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, wdrag said: I saw SREF, but was a little surprised at it giving freezing rain interior. Your source? A little too close to comfort but seeing it this west is nice. Lets see 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Not that this one is a done deal for snow but it often seems like models show a storm a week out then lose it for a few days before coming back. GFS and others never showed a hit except for the Euro and Icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 No surprise that the Sunday event is trending back to a hit-arctic waves often show up 48 hrs out.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 31 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Yea that’s a pretty big increase in qpf. I’m still worried about 1 camp being inland and the other OTS. We need “just right” down here in Philly. Well then it's good we have some mix of the two now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 49 minutes ago, MJO812 said: GFS and others never showed a hit except for the Euro and Icon. And one run of the UKMET. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Nam is a nice hit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Nam is a nice hit Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 How real is this ? From many other models just yesterday far out to sea to a benchmark track ??? BUT its out of the NAM more reliable range of 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: How real is this ? From many other models just yesterday far out to sea to a benchmark track ??? 6z models trended west Models have sucked this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: 6z models trended west Models have sucked this year so what makes you think this 72 hour NAM doesn't fall into that category ? Benchmark track at NAM 72 hours ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: How real is this ? From many other models just yesterday far out to sea to a benchmark track ??? BUT its out of the NAM more reliable range of 60 hours Long range NAM toss for now but continue tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 It just wants to snow now! We are about to enter a historic stretch!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: How real is this ? From many other models just yesterday far out to sea to a benchmark track ??? BUT its out of the NAM more reliable range of 60 hours There's a lot of uncertainty. The GFSv16 took a step toward a snowier solution at 6z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: so what makes you think this 72 hour NAM doesn't fall into that category ? Benchmark track at NAM 72 hours ??? All the models trended west at 6z. Lets see the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It just wants to snow now! We are about to enter a historic stretch!!! A huge storm is possible near Vday when the NAO shoots back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The SE ridge often trends more amped at the last minute and is characteristic of Nina winters so that can help us here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: A huge storm is possible near Vday when the NAO shoots back up one storm at a time! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: All the models trended west at 6z. Lets see the other models. Yes - really interesting that yesterdays 12Z EURO it was really difficult to even tell if there was a storm was a storm out there ....and now expect that at todays 12Z it will be anywhere close to the 12Z NAM ???BUT a few days prior the EURO was the first model to pick up on a direct hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, NEG NAO said: Yes - really interesting that yesterdays 12Z EURO it was really difficult to even tell if there was a storm was a storm out there ....and now expect that at todays 12Z it will be anywhere close to the 12Z NAM ??? I have no clue. Euro has been awful with this storm. Last storm Euro did pretty well but no model really stood out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: A little too close to comfort but seeing it this west is nice. Lets see 12z. Ok... I have a SREF source and its waist a hit, but I do see the hit by the NAM. Haven't seen anything else for the 12z cycle and am off line til 530P. I think this is a very good sign and am counting on an event for Sunday. Hopefully RGEM supports as well as future 12z/4 GFSv16/GGEM. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 This reminds me of the post super bowl storm in 2014 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I haven't moved my car since Sunday lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I have no clue. Euro has been awful with this storm. Last storm Euro did pretty well but no model really stood out. Not certain but didn't the GFS Para seemed to hold serve for a major EC snow storm for a while, while the other models wavered in and out of that idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: No surprise that the Sunday event is trending back to a hit-arctic waves often show up 48 hrs out.... was it 14-15 where we got an arctic wave conveyor belt, it seemed that every 2 weeks we'd get a clipper that trended from nada to 2-4 at 72 hrs, up to 3-6 at 48, and then 5-10 at 24? It was my first year lurking on this site and tracking winter storms and I got spoiled assuming every weak event would inevitably trend stronger the closer we got lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, romba said: was it 14-15 where we got an arctic wave conveyor belt, it seemed that every 2 weeks we'd get a clipper that trended from nada to 2-4 at 72 hrs, up to 3-6 at 48, and then 5-10 at 24? yep. Remember it well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 SOme foreign models have been showing this. Icon and French model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 RGEM still south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The models underestimated the SE Ridge, now they are correcting north. Sunday is going to be another snowstorm. If there are thunderstorms blowing up in the SE on Saturday into Sunday, the latent and sensible heat release aloft is going to pump the ridge up even more 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The models underestimated the SE Ridge, now they are correcting north. Sunday is going to be another snowstorm. If there are thunderstorms blowing up in the SE on Saturday into Sunday, the latent and sensible heat release aloft is going to pump the ridge up even more Who took over your account ? =p 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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