2-7-21 Sunday 8-12 hour nor'easter snowstorm roughly 5A-5P

[Dark Star]

36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here’s one recent paper:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abbc93/pdf

Thanks for the article and relatively short read.  I couldn't help but notice the author kept relating the warming to greenhouse gases, which seems unnecessary to keep repeating, since it is academic that greenhouse gases will increase atmospheric temperatures.  It is also somewhat self evident that extreme northern areas that did not receive a lot of snow will have increased frequency and amounts of snowfall.  Also, the recent "atmospheric river" which just slammed the west coast with extreme snowfalls is a good example of warm oceanic air causing an increase in snowfall.  However, I'm not sure if the original low that reached our area had any added moisture from the pacific atmospheric river.  The low weakened, and a new low formed along the Atlantic coast.  The author initially mentions many atmospheric circulations, but doesn't seem to tie them in to his conclusion?  So in areas like the NYC metro area, where snow is so difficult to come by, is the increase in overall temperature the primary reason for larger snowfalls?  Obviously as global temperatures increase, snow around here will become significantly infrequent.  I think this would be a great study for someone who is not as lazy or mathematically challenged as I am.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here’s one recent paper:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abbc93/pdf

And one that projects increases in Category 3 and 4 storms (RSI) until mid-century before the frequency declines.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2018GL079820

Thanks for the finds, Don!! 

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Thanks for the article and relatively short read.  I couldn't help but notice the author kept relating the warming to greenhouse gases, which seems unnecessary to keep repeating, since it is academic that greenhouse gases will increase atmospheric temperatures.  It is also somewhat self evident that extreme northern areas that did not receive a lot of snow will have increased frequency and amounts of snowfall.  Also, the recent "atmospheric river" which just slammed the west coast with extreme snowfalls is a good example of warm oceanic air causing an increase in snowfall.  However, I'm not sure if the original low that reached our area had any added moisture from the pacific atmospheric river.  The low weakened, and a new low formed along the Atlantic coast.  The author initially mentions many atmospheric circulations, but doesn't seem to tie them in to his conclusion?  So in areas like the NYC metro area, where snow is so difficult to come by, is the increase in overall temperature the primary reason for larger snowfalls?  Obviously as global temperatures increase, snow around here will become significantly infrequent.  I think this would be a great study for someone who is not as lazy or mathematically challenged as I am.

Arguably the very intense snow the NYC area had on Monday would’ve been less so if the water temps were a few degrees cooler. The length overall made for the probably record amount in NJ but the easterly jet on it was like a mini atmospheric river from the east and it was cold enough for that to be snow. And it wasn’t that powdery a snow, it’s water logged. 

[uncle W]

the driest ten years in NYC history was from 1956 to 1965...if you throw in a few years before and after there were many snowstorms and hurricanes along the east coast...I think the Oceans were cooler back then...when NYC got into this wet climate in 1971 there were only three years that had major snowstorms from 1970-1992...It was Feb/Mar 1993 when NYC started seeing bigger snowstorms again...

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Arguably the very intense snow the NYC area had on Monday would’ve been less so if the water temps were a few degrees cooler. The length overall made for the probably record amount in NJ but the easterly jet on it was like a mini atmospheric river from the east and it was cold enough for that to be snow. And it wasn’t that powdery a snow, it’s water logged. 

Yeah, someone should do a study including all our major snowstorms following the snowfall increase since the 02-03 winter. But just a few individual events listed in this thread show the increase related the to record SST warmth. The SST data should be combined with the increases in high latitude Atlantic and Pacific blocking that we have experienced over the same time period. We can probably add links between topical forcing and record Arctic warmth that can influence circulation patterns favorable for Northeast snowstorms.

 

 

[wdrag]

Good evening will rewrite the thread headlines tomorrow morning, probably dropping the wind, wind chill and sub14 potential and maybe even snow.   If we get down to 60hours and the ensembles are zero, near zero then this thread  won't work.  For now, while op models are not interested in any qpf here, 1/3 of the 12z GEFS ensembles have qpf snow. Much lower chance than a couple of days ago.  The big change seems to be associated with the 5th short wave being stronger and further east, while the second has receded into the Great Lakes only on the 7th, with rising heights immediately following on the 8th.  

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, Dark Star said:

While this sounds probable, I am not convinced that the warmer climate is the reason for higher snowfall amounts.  Snow in the NYC metro area has always been difficult to come by.  It seems most systems have always been on the edge of the rain snow line. Cold air is always a necessary ingredient.  As temperatures have increased, I find it difficult to believe that the warmer climate is the reason for our bigger snowfalls over the last 20 years. Warmer air holds more moisture, but is the increase in ocean (or air) temperature proportionately related to the higher snow amounts?    Is there actual data/studies proving that the warmer climate is leading to increased snowfall in the NYC area, or just supposition?  Or maybe it has to do with the track of the systems (perhaps due to a warming climate)? 

yes that last part is exactly correct....compare this to the 80s.....winters were much colder but also much drier.....many more suppressed tracks that benefitted DC and Baltimore over us.  With warming the track has lifted north.  Higher snowfall totals in NYC is only part of the story.....also look at what has happened to DC snowfall in the past few decades compared to the 80s.  In a sense, we're taking their snow.......

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, hooralph said:

Layman’s take on the changing climate: it would make sense that we are trending towards more extremes... that more of our snow is coming from larger events. It’s harder to sustain cold that allows small systems to stack up snow... but when we thread the needle, with much more ocean moisture to work with... watch out. 
 
I predict we see a 30” + snow in NYC proper in the next 5-10 years

um it's already happened in Jan 2016.....New York City exists outside of Manhattan and I submit that we shouldn't use Central Park for our data.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

February 2015 around here.  We were building snow pack from January into the second week of March.  Pretty much every snowfall that winter fell onto previously existing snowpack.  20" snowpack of mostly old snow a week into March isn't typical around here. /understatement

2014-15 was our last truly great snow season

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, uncle W said:

some more dual 6" snowfalls or better in a weeks time...

2/7-8/1899.....6.5"

2/12-13/99.....16.0"...

1/31/1882......8.0"

2/4-5/1882.....9.0"

2/19-20/1934..7.6"

2/25-26/1934..9.3"

3/16-17/1956..6.7"

3/18-19/1956...11.6"

 

wasnt PD2 preceded by a major storm?

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

The models almost always make LI warmer than it is actually is.

it amazes me that they're always so slow to fix such obvious model errors, there should be some self-correcting built in- isn't this the age of AI?

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yes that last part is exactly correct....compare this to the 80s.....winters were much colder but also much drier.....many more suppressed tracks that benefitted DC and Baltimore over us.  With warming the track has lifted north.  Higher snowfall totals in NYC is only part of the story.....also look at what has happened to DC snowfall in the past few decades compared to the 80s.  In a sense, we're taking their snow.......

 

You and many others on this forum, I’m guessing people in their 40’s because it’s your childhood memories of winter, seem to pick the 1980’s as if they were representative of an average NYC winter. In the 15 decades of record keeping in NYC the 1980’s is last in snowfall, and as anomalous of an average winter as we’ve ever seen. My first memoirs are the 1960’s which were cold and snowy, a great time to be a little kid. A white Christmas was almost a guarantee then especially where I grew up in the HV.
 

Yes the last two decades were a couple of inches, three to be exact, above NYC’s 152 year average of 29 inches. Contrast that to the 1970’s and 1980’s which were the least snowiest decades ever recorded. They were each barely above a 20 inch average, almost 9 inches below the historical norm. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

You and many others on this forum, I’m guessing people in their 40’s because it’s your childhood memories of winter, seem to pick the 1980’s as if they were representative of an average NYC winter. In the 15 decades of record keeping in NYC the 1980’s is last in snowfall, and as anomalous of an average winter as we’ve ever seen. My first memoirs are the 1960’s which were cold and snowy, a great time to be a little kid. A white Christmas was almost a guarantee then especially where I grew up in the HV.
 

Yes the last two decades were a couple of inches, three to be exact, above NYC’s 152 year average of 29 inches. Contrast that to the 1970’s and 1980’s which were the least snowiest decades ever recorded. They were each barely above a 20 inch average, almost 9 inches below the historical norm. 

I looked through 1960s data and it seems like the only really good seasons were 1960-61 and 1966-67.  There were a lot of middling seasons and one somewhat better than average (1963-64).  Overall for the decade though yes it was our last 30" average before the 00s.  The 80s were the worst though but the winters were still much colder than they are now (especially January) and the 70s were the second worst (thank goodness for 77-78!)

 

[LibertyBell]

I would have loved to have experienced any of those three winters during the 60s though, they all must've been amazing.  And the 1966 Summer as well as Donna in 1960!  March 1960 snowstorm and Feb 1969 in addition to the ones in the winters I mentioned also.

 

 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

2014-15 was our last truly great snow season

 

I'd say 13-14; because it had some beefy storms, while most of 2015 were light events IMBY. 

[wdrag]

Thursday Feb 4: 614AM topic update. Have dropped the wind event (45MPH+) and wind chill (-15 Poconos) and narrowed the date range. As many are witnessing, the modeling has been uncertain but always the ensembles have suggested a little bit of snow Sunday. Individual model operational cycles have tended to be nil (exception EC and V16 robust early on) until the 06z/4 GFS V15 and 16.  The 06z GEFS has developed an 850MB LO just south of LI and increased qpf dramatically. (graphic added). Noting also other 00z/4 ensemble MINOR increases in QPF and NAEFS indications of rapidly developing low pressure as it passes southeast of our subforum Sunday night. Until the ensembles nix the event, am continuing the snow threat. The 00z/4 MEX MOS was only 14% chance of qpf Sunday, so it's difficult to be sure about an event Sunday.  Ensembles suggestion and recent GFS northward trend (uncertain) in my mind require consideration of a general 1-4" snow event Sunday (may be melting on pavement on LI with marginal near freezing temps during any snow). I've kept the 9" max in there, just in case the coastal comes closer but 9" is highly unlikely. We do know it's going to be a vigorous event but its northwest proximity to our area is in doubt. Gusty north-northwest winds may follow Sunday night and it could be quite a bit colder Monday morning (near 14 NYC?) than statistical guidance suggests.   No thread on the 9th-10th, if ever) until Super Bowl Sunday is better resolved. 

Added 06z GEFS 24 hr qpf, as well as a number of plumes for LGA , qpf, snow, 2m temps and 850 temp)

[wdrag]

One additional note: I think the NAM which has hints on its 06z run will be helpful in trends, whether this was an aberrant 06z GFS northward cycle. The 06z GGEM says no way and we need that on board for an event. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

One additional note: I think the NAM which has hints on its 06z run will be helpful in trends, whether this was an aberrant 06z GFS northward cycle. The 06z GGEM says no way and we need that on board for an event. 

Yes that was interesting but these 06z runs can be flukes a lot of the time. 

[MJO812]

Not surprising that the models are bringing the storm back . 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes that was interesting but these 06z runs can be flukes a lot of the time. 

Euro also shifted west and gefs is clustered near the coast 

[MJO812]

Eps more west

[495weatherguy]

4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

You and many others on this forum, I’m guessing people in their 40’s because it’s your childhood memories of winter, seem to pick the 1980’s as if they were representative of an average NYC winter. In the 15 decades of record keeping in NYC the 1980’s is last in snowfall, and as anomalous of an average winter as we’ve ever seen. My first memoirs are the 1960’s which were cold and snowy, a great time to be a little kid. A white Christmas was almost a guarantee then especially where I grew up in the HV.
 

Yes the last two decades were a couple of inches, three to be exact, above NYC’s 152 year average of 29 inches. Contrast that to the 1970’s and 1980’s which were the least snowiest decades ever recorded. They were each barely above a 20 inch average, almost 9 inches below the historical norm. 

Don't forget that you grew up in the HV, that's a vastly different winter experience than those who are from Manhattan and eastward.  Storms were always  "North and west of the city" for accumulating snow.  Every teacher/professor I queried would explain to me how difficult it was to get snow set-ups on an island surrounded by warmish water. 

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro also shifted west and gefs is clustered near the coast 

Yes they really brought it back. 

Let's see if the 12z runs hold or if this was just a fluke. It'll be a fast mover but could easily drop 6-10" if everything works out.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes they really brought it back. 

Let's see if the 12z runs hold or if this was just a fluke. It'll be a fast mover but could easily drop 6-10" if everything works out.

Models are really struggling again this year

[MJO812]

Eps for Tuesday has no cutter.  Models are trending away with it and more of a Miller B look.

[MJO812]

Sref is a hit

[Heisy]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sref is a hit

Yea that’s a pretty big increase in qpf. I’m still worried about 1 camp being inland and the other OTS. We need “just right” down here in Philly.

[wdrag]

GEFS 06z plumes for LGA for your review... Try not to buy into the high end, as NEG NAO and others have stated, getting a big one after a top 10r, within a week, is highly unusual.  This may all be in response to Stratwarm of Jan?  I don't know but I do think high end qpf anomalies, per research, are a little more common-possible in the warmer thermal columns. Our coastal SST's are still above normal with a steadily weakening Nina.  For now, let's see the future modeling straighten this out the next day or so and think much lower than the extreme seen here.  That prevents disappointment, but eyes wide open and expect anything from nil, to melting on LI and possibly heaviest inland. The plumes are unquestionably more numerous than the 00z/4 version. Whether this was correct?  I'm continuing to lean an event, particularly because of other ensemble trends and the V16.  Always prepared for downside (nil) in the next few cycles but could be interesting. 

 

[wdrag]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sref is a hit

I saw SREF, but was a little surprised at it giving freezing rain interior. Your source? 

[ILoveWinter]

Not that this one is a done deal for snow but it often seems like models show a storm a week out then lose it for a few days before coming back.