weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Steve D. Put a video out around noon today. Not MIA? Paid or free to public? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Yeah it takes so long to put the slippers on by 8... It's funny but all of the forums I hang out on are dead tonight. Gotta say, some days I never even take em off..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordsnot Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, weatherpruf said: Paid or free to public? It was free. and over 8 hours ago. I said this morning, I was off by one minute. My point is, normally with a snowstorm on the way he tweets frequently. He (and Mike Masco) have been silent all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Based on where the low will be the heaviest stuff should be over central/east NJ into NYC/LI. Remember the strongest banding tends to be further NW than modeled. Where do you think we stand here in Middlesex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Paid or free to public? Free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, lordsnot said: It was free. and over 8 hours ago. I said this morning, I was off by one minute. My point is, normally with a snowstorm on the way he tweets frequently. He (and Mike Masco) have been silent all day. Well, Mt Holly did use the " challenging forecast" qualification IIRC in the morning report... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, weatherpruf said: Where do you think we stand here in Middlesex? I'm sticking with 4-8" but higher than normal bust potential. Thinking rapidly intensifying low taking track up to 40/70 should yield better results than a couple inches. But we'll see, hoping for a positive bust for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, White Gorilla said: Instead of focusing on a particular forecaster, let's all nowcast and look at real time trends, upper air pattern, radar development and the high res short range (HRRR, Srefs) The latest HRRR looks like a general 1-3 except maybe far eastern LI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, lordsnot said: It was free. and over 8 hours ago. I said this morning, I was off by one minute. My point is, normally with a snowstorm on the way he tweets frequently. He (and Mike Masco) have been silent all day. So according to your forecast and snow map, here in NE Sussex County NJ we are 1-2" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, eduggs said: The latest HRRR looks like a general 1-3 except maybe far eastern LI. HRRR was garbage on Monday. The only thing it got right was the sleet elements. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: HRRR was garbage on Monday. The only thing it got right was the sleet elements. I'm not vouching for it. I'm just pointing out yet another model that had been showing moderate QPF that has backed off as we've gotten closer. There's not much model support for >0.4" QPF outside of far eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, eduggs said: I'm not vouching for it. I'm just pointing out yet another model that had been showing moderate QPF that has backed off as we've gotten closer. There's not much model support for >0.4" QPF outside of far eastern areas. This isn’t true at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 18 minutes ago, lordsnot said: Let's all remember this call tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: This isn’t true at all. The 0.4" QPF contour runs across LI on every piece of 18z guidance I've seen except the 12km NAM and a handful of SREF and ensemble members. And those have been shifting east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Nam well west, with a distinct band in E PA..low passes inside the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 NAM definitely a bit NW with the LP placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Northof78 said: Nam well west, with a distinct band in E PA.. The heavy stuff still goes from SNJ into eastern SNE. Only LI looks to get >0.5" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Its basically a 990 on the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Though less qpf for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 There is always the 3K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 If a deepening low passes that close with no confluence In front, I think we know the result....2 past events trended NW in last day...no reason for this not to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 46 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Yeah it takes so long to put the slippers on by 8... It's funny but all of the forums I hang out on are dead tonight. By and large, most people seem to be back in normal socializing mode. I was invited out by a couple different groups tonight. I think you can guess my feelings on that without too much trouble so I won't get into it, but Saturday night is alive and well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, Northof78 said: If a deepening low passes that close with no confluence In front, I think we know the result....2 past events trended NW in last day...no reason for this not to follow Not necessarily that simple but I respect sticking with your forecast. I don’t think it’ll be a total bust and sticking with 3-6 for nyc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tristateweatherFB Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Hello all. I am Adam from tsw we been posting all day on our page. Don’t know why my name was brought up of Mia. Keeping 3-6/4-8 as I have all week. I learned from the blizzard I kept 1-2 feet for a week as a forecast and didn’t back down. The worse thing do to is model hug great page and a lot of great forecasters on here. More snow is coming after this. Enjoy the ride! 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 21 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said: Hello all. I am Adam from tsw we been posting all day on our page. Don’t know why my name was brought up of Mia. Keeping 3-6/4-8 as I have all week. I learned from the blizzard I kept 1-2 feet for a week as a forecast and didn’t back down. The worse thing do to is model hug great page and a lot of great forecasters on here. More snow is coming after this. Enjoy the ride! Good to see you here Adam! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: By and large, most people seem to be back in normal socializing mode. I was invited out by a couple different groups tonight. I think you can guess my feelings on that without too much trouble so I won't get into it, but Saturday night is alive and well. SMH. I'm with you.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Liberty NY 19.4 / 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: You mean people are starting to wake up to all the bulls**t we've been fed for the last year? Sadly, it's too late. Don't exaggerate. We've only been tracking this storm for a few days. 24/14F here, though the rate of cooling has leveled off quite a bit with the high clouds streaming in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said: Hello all. I am Adam from tsw we been posting all day on our page. Don’t know why my name was brought up of Mia. Keeping 3-6/4-8 as I have all week. I learned from the blizzard I kept 1-2 feet for a week as a forecast and didn’t back down. The worse thing do to is model hug great page and a lot of great forecasters on here. More snow is coming after this. Enjoy the ride! Wow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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