2-7-21 Sunday 8-12 hour nor'easter snowstorm roughly 5A-5P

[MJO812]

Nice bump northwest 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It is either delayed or it is 2 storms

its really difficult to fiqure out what the Canadian is trying to accomplish here and hard to believe that northern stream energy will make it this far north during that time period without redeveloping further south

[Heisy]

[MJO812]

Ukie

[Heisy]

I ninja’d MJO for once ;). Ukie also looks like it might have done something similar to LR cmc as well

[winterwx21]

0z UKMET is a significant snowstorm sunday. A good 6 to 8 inches for most of the area. The Euro is not alone.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

0z UKMET is a significant snowstorm sunday. A good 6 to 8 inches for most of the area. The Euro is not alone.

 

[eduggs]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice bump northwest 

Yeah the GEFS mean has been trending closer to the coast and wetter for a few runs now. It's noticeably wetter this run. About .3 or .4 inches liquid.

[TriPol]

A 6 inch snowfall after a 2 foot snowfall is icing on the cake.

[BxSnowWx37]

We are still counting snowfall from this last storm. And still snowing after 4 days.so imagine another 6 to 9 inches..some might reach 40+ inches in less then a weeks time with more winter to go.

[TriPol]

9 minutes ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

We are still counting snowfall from this last storm. And still snowing after 4 days.so imagine another 6 to 9 inches..some might reach 40+ inches in less then a weeks time with more winter to go.

After 40+ inches of snow and arctic temperatures, I imagine people will be very happy if we get an early spring.

[Nibor]

Euro misses way south.

[winterwx21]

Funny how it goes. You'd think the UKMET jumping aboard big-time would be a sign that the Euro (which was consistently showing a snowstorm) was really onto something with the snowstorm idea, but then the Euro comes in a miss by a lot. It's never easy trying to figure out potential storms. At least we still have 1 model showing a snowstorm, but the Euro dropping the storm certainly lowers confidence. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Funny how it goes. You'd think the UKMET jumping aboard big-time would be a sign that the Euro (which was consistently showing a snowstorm) was really onto something with the snowstorm idea, but then the Euro comes in a miss by a lot. It's never easy trying to figure out potential storms. At least we still have 1 model showing a snowstorm, but the Euro dropping the storm certainly lowers confidence. 

need to wait for EPS, they are better at this range, look how GEFS has been trending wetter and further north consistently

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Funny how it goes. You'd think the UKMET jumping aboard big-time would be a sign that the Euro (which was consistently showing a snowstorm) was really onto something with the snowstorm idea, but then the Euro comes in a miss by a lot. It's never easy trying to figure out potential storms. At least we still have 1 model showing a snowstorm, but the Euro dropping the storm certainly lowers confidence. 

The Ukie has been God awful this winter, terrible. It is now a huge outlier 

[wdrag]

Good morning everyone, As noted above the EC has temporarily (hmmmm-do we remember about 4-5 days before this top 10r just past?) dropped the ball. GFS now closer. V16 not posting due to data flow problems with an unknown (to us, or at least me) return. As noted above the UK unreliable but on.  

What I think, and I'll attach as a placeholder for WPC, is that we're still on... with atmospherics needing to sort out the myriad of disturbances and bring us a little more consensus (or is the consensus too many short waves and a relatively flat but cold westerly flow?).

One thing that's changed since the thread inception. Great Lakes 500MB troughing has put much more stock in the first disturbance carving into the northeast Friday, and holding back on the 7th-8th. That would probably negate sub 14F cold into NYC by the 9th, but not necessarily beyond as modeling persists with anomalous cold from the Great Lakes to the Northern Plains beyond Valentines Day. One of these disturbances coming through between now and the 19th 'should' become a substantial northeast wintry weather event and draw in a pretty decent cold shot. 

So, since the ensmbles and modeling are flipping and uncertain, I keep the thread alive as is, with doubts about wind and temps meeting thread options by the 9th but not a shut down yet, in my mind. Snow is definitely on the table (aside from current on going at this 6AM writing, and the 5th   1" potential for the I84 corridor for which I may eventually start an OBS thread I84?).

I do think we'll see some sort of snow here in NYC 7th or 8th- but will be corrected by reality.  Not every thread works out... this one may be that.  Too much uncertainty as of now. 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Nibor said:

Euro misses way south.

It is a cold and potentially wintry pattern moving forward if we do even miss Sunday's  event. Get alot of sleep now.

[wdrag]

15 hours ago, North and West said:

I really like reading your write-ups. It reminds me of when I was kid listening to the weather channel, and had no idea what was going on behind the scenes.

Now I'm just older and still have no idea what's going on. 

There is plenty to digest and try to sort out for all of us.  I am going to post something later today on a communique I've received regarding an inquiry with WPC about their probs for snow and ice on LI. (my over reliance for 2/1 and subsequent under prediction on my part-it's illuminating and now allows me to take the guidance for Li with more grains off salt).  Sometimes I think throwing everything into a pot and blending is best, though some modeling is clearly better than others, especially when it comes to snow-ice vs rain. 

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good morning everyone, As noted above the EC has temporarily (hmmmm-do we remember about 4-5 days before this top 10r just past?) dropped the ball. GFS now closer. V16 not posting due to data flow problems with an unknown (to us, or at least me) return. As noted above the UK unreliable but on.  

What I think, and I'll attach as a placeholder for WPC, is that we're still on... with atmospherics needing to sort out the myriad of disturbances and bring us a little more consensus (or is the consensus too many short waves and a relatively flat but cold westerly flow?).

One thing that's changed since the thread inception. Great Lakes 500MB troughing has put much more stock in the first disturbance carving into the northeast Friday, and holding back on the 7th-8th. That would probably negate sub 14F cold into NYC by the 9th, but not necessarily beyond as modeling persists with anomalous cold from the Great Lakes to the Northern Plains beyond Valentines Day. One of these disturbances coming through between now and the 19th 'should' become a substantial northeast wintry weather event and draw in a pretty decent cold shot. 

So, since the ensmbles and modeling are flipping and uncertain, I keep the thread alive as is, with doubts about wind and temps meeting thread options by the 9th but not a shut down yet, in my mind. Snow is definitely on the table (aside from current on going at this 6AM writing, and the 5th   1" potential for the I84 corridor for which I may eventually start an OBS thread I84?).

I do think we'll see some sort of snow here in NYC 7th or 8th- but will be corrected by reality.  Not every thread works out... this one may be that.  Too much uncertainty as of now. 

 

As I mentioned yesterday - it is  rare for the immediate NYC metro to get a significant snowstorm that follows so closely ( less then 1 week) a major snowstorm the size of the previous storm .That said I think the storm doesn't phase along the coast this weekend and the current EURO OP is going in the correct direction. BUT the EURO OP is showing some potential for a few days later. So now go ahead and tell me I am wrong (I hope I am wrong ) about the weekend. Also can anyone remember a SECS following so closely behind MECS or HECS comparable to the previous storm in NYC ?

[HVSnowLover]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

As I mentioned yesterday - it is very rare for the immediate NYC metro to get a significant snowstorm that follows so closely ( less then 1 week) a major snowstorm otherwise known as new snow on top of already fallen snow. That said I think the storm doesn't phase along the coast this weekend and the current EURO OP is going in the correct direction. BUT the EURO OP is showing some potential for a few days later. So now go ahead and tell me I am wrong (I hope I am wrong ) about the weekend. Also can anyone remember a SECS following so closely behind MECS or HECS in NYC ?

Feb 2010 and possibly Feb 2014 were the last times I can remember a pattern with snow on top of snow 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

As I mentioned yesterday - it is very rare for the immediate NYC metro to get a significant snowstorm that follows so closely ( less then 1 week) a major snowstorm otherwise known as new snow on top of already fallen snow. That said I think the storm doesn't phase along the coast this weekend and the current EURO OP is going in the correct direction. BUT the EURO OP is showing some potential for a few days later. So now go ahead and tell me I am wrong (I hope I am wrong ) about the weekend. Also can anyone remember a SECS following so closely behind MECS or HECS in NYC ?

Jan 2011 ? 

Feb 2010 ? ( well not NYC but many areas)

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

There is plenty to digest and try to sort out for all of us.  I am going to post something later today on a communique I've received regarding an inquiry with WPC about their probs for snow and ice on LI. (my over reliance for 2/1 and subsequent under prediction on my part-it's illuminating and now allows me to take the guidance for Li with more grains off salt).  Sometimes I think throwing everything into a pot and blending is best, though some modeling is clearly better than others, especially when it comes to snow-ice vs rain. 

The models almost always make LI warmer than it is actually is.

[HVSnowLover]

7 hours ago, Nibor said:

Euro misses way south.

One run. Even with 2/1 it had one run pretty far SE so 12z run will be telling if it’s a fluke or this threat is really done. 

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The models almost always make LI warmer than it is actually is.

Portions of LI have gotten quite a bit of snow the last 10 years..................

[allgame830]

What did the the 0z EPS show??

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

As I mentioned yesterday - it is  rare for the immediate NYC metro to get a significant snowstorm that follows so closely ( less then 1 week) a major snowstorm the size of the previous storm .That said I think the storm doesn't phase along the coast this weekend and the current EURO OP is going in the correct direction. BUT the EURO OP is showing some potential for a few days later. So now go ahead and tell me I am wrong (I hope I am wrong ) about the weekend. Also can anyone remember a SECS following so closely behind MECS or HECS comparable to the previous storm in NYC ?

I am not aware of such storms following closely. However, there were two cases where a 10" snowfall was followed less than one week later by another 6" or greater snowfall in New York City:

November 26-27, 1898: 10.0" and November 29-30, 1898: 6.0"

February 3-4, 1926: 10.4" and February 9-10, 1926: 12.0"

[coastalplainsnowman]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I am not aware of such storms following closely. However, there were two cases where a 10" snowfall was followed less than one week later by another 6" or greater snowfall in New York City:

November 26-27, 1898: 10.0" and November 29-30, 1898: 6.0"

February 3-4, 1926: 10.4" and February 9-10, 1926: 12.0"

Hi Don, all,

I have only my memory to go by , but I believe that February 8 and February 11 1994 (a Tuesday / Friday) had back to back 8"+ snowfall, at least for Nassau.   This is my best recollection of significant back to back snowstorms going back to at least the mid 80s.  It might not meet the 10" followed by 6", but if it's not, it probably just missed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Hi Don, all,

I have only my memory to go by , but I believe that February 8 and February 11 1994 (a Tuesday / Friday) had back to back 8"+ snowfall, at least for Nassau.   This is my best recollection of significant back to back snowstorms going back to at least the mid 80s.  It might not meet the 10" followed by 6", but if it's not, it probably just missed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes. That’s correct. I didn’t include those storms for NYC, as the earlier storm had less than 10” snow (9”). The second brought 12.8”.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Portions of LI have gotten quite a bit of snow the last 10 years..................

Especially the north shore

[Heisy]

Icon continues having a strong low for Sunday.