2-7-21 Sunday 8-12 hour nor'easter snowstorm roughly 5A-5P

[HVSnowLover]

Uptons forecast and write up is reasonable with 4-8 inches for warning zone and they mention possibility totals will be lower if the bands stay to the southeast 

[Northof78]

4-8” updated accums for NYC metro

[sferic]

I don't think Sullivan county gets 4-6 inches

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Uptons forecast and write up is reasonable with 4-8 inches for warning zone and they mention possibility totals will be lower if the bands stay to the southeast 

I've seen that happen so many times. generally, if its good for the coast and we're marginal here, we will not do as well; the same is true if the snow is more NW; it seems we turn to rain when the coast does, but don't get the snow when the coast does either. I don't know what will happen tomorrow, the storms have favored the NW this year, but this one appears different.

[winterwx21]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Radar  looks better than the models 

18z RGEM looks very good on the color loop. No snow map out yet, but I think this run is going to give more snow.

[mannynyc]

7 minutes ago, sferic said:

I don't think Sullivan county gets 4-6 inches

Is that too high for the city? 

[sferic]

2 minutes ago, mannylovessnow said:

Is that too high for the city? 

That's the map as of 3PM

[eduggs]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Radar  looks better than the models 

Our shortwave is the area of precipitation rotating near the border of OK and AR.

I think it's difficult to say how that translates northeastward.

[sferic]

On Pivotal what are the RGEM and ICON labeled as? Thanks!

[winterwx21]

11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

18z RGEM looks very good on the color loop. No snow map out yet, but I think this run is going to give more snow.

3 to 5 inches on the 18z RGEM. Not bad.

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, sferic said:

On Pivotal what are the RGEM and ICON labeled as? Thanks!

RGEM=RDPS

Icon is not available.

[bklnwx1]

3:54pm Upton discussion:    https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.fxus61.KOKX.html

[sferic]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

RGEM=RDPS

Icon is not available.

Thank you once again Don; much appreciated

[the_other_guy]

This just seems to be trending in the wrong direction with each model run

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, bklnwx1 said:

3:54pm Upton discussion:    https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.fxus61.KOKX.html

From the discussion, details about the dynamics the NWS was relying on more than just the modeled QPF:

THE GFS SHOWS EXCELLENT LIFT IN THE   DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (-12C TO -18C) EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER   HUDSON VALLEY WHERE CURRENT FORECAST LIQUID AMOUNTS ARE LOWER.   FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OR COLDER SIDE OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL LOW   IS IMPRESSIVE FOR ABOUT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE   AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

 

[sussexcountyobs]

8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

This just seems to be trending in the wrong direction with each model run

Alot of times when you are 12-16 hrs from event start time, it is time to stop relying so heavily on what models show run to run. 

[sussexcountyobs]

FWIW. My forecast has been 3-5" for 2 days. On the NWS 4pm update, they raised the upside by 2". Now says 3-7".

15 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

This just seems to be trending in the wrong direction with each model run

Alot of times when you are 12-16 hrs from event start time, it is time to stop relying so heavily on what models show run to run. 

[Joe4alb]

Coastal NJ in on  the warnings now too.

 

Quote

The only notable changes were to expand the Winter Storm Warning
into coastal Monmouth County and inland Ocean County given forecast
totals sufficient to warrant a warning. The Winter Weather Advisory
was also expanded into coastal Ocean County for similar reasoning.
Some of the latest high-res guidance tries to hold onto the light
snow for a couple extra hours along and north of I-195, so totals
seem more probable to exceed the thresholds for the new areas in the
Warning/Advisory. It should be noted that there is the potential for
higher snowfall amounts within the band (where rates may approach 2
inches an hour), but would like to really get in the CAMs temporal
wheelhouse (e.g. <24 hours) before increasing amounts further.

 

[weatherpruf]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

From the discussion, details about the dynamics the NWS was relying on more than just the modeled QPF:

THE GFS SHOWS EXCELLENT LIFT IN THE   DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (-12C TO -18C) EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER   HUDSON VALLEY WHERE CURRENT FORECAST LIQUID AMOUNTS ARE LOWER.   FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OR COLDER SIDE OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL LOW   IS IMPRESSIVE FOR ABOUT A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE   AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

 

An excellent discussion laying out their reasoning.

[Northof78]

GFS looks really good in terms of coastal track and overall banding/CCB signature, still just 3-5” 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Starting to look more like a rain event.       My High T yesterday was 51* and I currently (2pm) have 45*.  (46* at 3pm.)      All I am seeing are T's in the mid 30's for the whole event.         Remember one week ago this was a rain event with the primary low hundreds of miles up into Canada, just dragging a front with it.

https://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/lamp/getlav.pl?sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA

12Z Cobb Method outputs:          GFS  1"      NAM   6", mixing issues

 

Even the linked model data shows very low initial dewpoints and evaporative cooling when precip starts

[PoTown]

WWA for Dutchess and Ulster Counties...NWS Albany indicating possible 4-6 along I84 in southern Dutchess / Ulster.  Morning discussion had Poughkeepsie at 4 inches...afternoon discussion 5 inches.  Seems high but ratio of 13:1 or slightly higher is mentioned.

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

GFS looks really good in terms of coastal track and overall banding/CCB signature, still just 3-5” 

Maybe a couple hours of decent banding potential as far west as NYC. There might be some spotty banding west of there too. It better really dump in that 4 hour window that we get. 

[White Gorilla]

29 minutes ago, PoTown said:

WWA for Dutchess and Ulster Counties...NWS Albany indicating possible 4-6 along I84 in southern Dutchess / Ulster.  Morning discussion had Poughkeepsie at 4 inches...afternoon discussion 5 inches.  Seems high but ratio of 13:1 or slightly higher is mentioned.

We take.  

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

We take.  

Check out NWS albany forecast for our area. It says it's 104* right now in Poughkeepsie. They must be having a pre SB party. 

[SnoSki14]

NWS going somewhat against guidance and probably for good reason.

Snow growth should be very good for a few hours. 4-8" still looking good

[White Gorilla]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

NWS going somewhat against guidance and probably for good reason.

Snow growth should be very good for a few hours. 4-8" still looking good

Enjoy.  We will be craving for this in 6 months. 

[Brian5671]

Take the few inches we get and enjoy it.    Stop obsessing over every model run.

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Enjoy.  We will be craving for this in 6 months. 

Not me. In 6 months I hope to be back at some fishing. Will be hoping for sunny skies, low humidity and moderate temps. But, I will likely have none of those, because it's NJ....heat, humidity, t-storms....

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Take the few inches we get and enjoy it.    Stop obsessing over every model run.

I'm still mighty sore from Monday's event. But I'll gladly take a nice walk in a moderate snow in the morning. Can someone tell me what the devil a jebwalk is?