wishcast_hater Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Same. If our area only gets a 2-3 inch refresher, I am OK with it. Lot more snow chances to come. Plus I have plans tomorrow that I want to see through without much snow disruption I hate hearing that we have more chances because it’s not a guarantee of anything. Rather this one just pan out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Whatever falls needs to be cleaned up quickly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I really do want this to pan out. We lost a lot of snow depth this week. Would be cool to have another big snow. I am noticing that the colder temperatures seem to be moderating in the long range again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Totally fine with <4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I really do want this to pan out. We lost a lot of snow depth this week. Would be cool to have another big snow. I am noticing that the colder temperatures seem to be moderating in the long range again. Yes but more storm threats (although iffy temps for the coast) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Guys remember 10:1 ratios maps are not so good for this storm.... ratios look to be higher because of higher snow growth potential! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 41 minutes ago, Battendown said: Like I said 1-3 Nyc hahaha Troll 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Upton 1:33 pm ill take it Overall, expecting a widespread 6-9 inches across portions of NE NJ, NYC, Southern Westchester, Long Island and Southern CT. Can not rule out a few 10+ inch amounts across eastern LI and far eastern CT, if any of those 2+ inch per hour rates do occur. Further North and West, across western Passaic in NJ, much of the lower hudson Valley and northern Fairfield, amounts may be slightly lower, with less precipitation expected. Snowfall amounts are expected to range form 3-6 inches. Have converted the entire watch area to warnings, along with northern New Haven in CT and western Bergen in NJ. Northern Fairfield in CT, much of the Lower Hudson Valley and Western Passaic, winter weather advisories have been issued. Wow they must be interpreting the models different than we are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Wow they must be interpreting the models different than we are Well they are the Meteorologists lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 That forecast is actually from much earlier this morning. They did not change the verbiage for the 1:33pm update. That is still based off the 0Z model data 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said: I hate hearing that we have more chances because it’s not a guarantee of anything. Rather this one just pan out. Chances just mean that. Chances. Not guarantees. Keep expectations minimal and if those chances verify big, then you are pleasantly surprised. If not, then it is per expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Starting to look more like a rain event. My High T yesterday was 51* and I currently (2pm) have 45*. (46* at 3pm.) All I am seeing are T's in the mid 30's for the whole event. Remember one week ago this was a rain event with the primary low hundreds of miles up into Canada, just dragging a front with it. https://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/lamp/getlav.pl?sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA 12Z Cobb Method outputs: GFS 1" NAM 6", mixing issues 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Chances just mean that. Chances. Not guarantees. Keep expectations minimal and if those chances verify big, then you are pleasantly surprised. If not, then it is per expectation. Not so much responding to you as the post you were responding to but In the interior there will be definitely be more chances and on the coast this one still may pan out. Also we can’t control whether this pans out or not. Also the more chances are within 5 days it’s not like fantasy runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 21 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: In the interior there will be definitely be more chances and on the coast this one still may pan out. Also the more chances are within 5 days it’s not like fantasy runs. Hoping the coasties do well tomorrow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Upton 1:33 pm ill take it Overall, expecting a widespread 6-9 inches across portions of NE NJ, NYC, Southern Westchester, Long Island and Southern CT. Can not rule out a few 10+ inch amounts across eastern LI and far eastern CT, if any of those 2+ inch per hour rates do occur. Further North and West, across western Passaic in NJ, much of the lower hudson Valley and northern Fairfield, amounts may be slightly lower, with less precipitation expected. Snowfall amounts are expected to range form 3-6 inches. Have converted the entire watch area to warnings, along with northern New Haven in CT and western Bergen in NJ. Northern Fairfield in CT, much of the Lower Hudson Valley and Western Passaic, winter weather advisories have been issued. That is wording carried forward from 4am. The 1:33pm AFD updated the near term but not the rest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 23 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Starting to look more like a rain event. My High T yesterday was 51* and I currently (2pm) have 45*. All I am seeing are T's in the mid 30's for the whole event. Remember one week ago this was a rain event with the primary low hundreds of miles up into Canada, just dragging a front with it. https://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/lamp/getlav.pl?sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Which storm is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Radar is juicy. How are the models dry is beyond me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Hoping the coasties do well tomorrow. Right? I don’t live there, but if it makes other people happy, it doesn’t take away from your own happiness.I will be pleased if we get a little conversational snow tomorrow in Morristown that doesn’t add to potential roof issues or future flooding concerns.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 As per Mt. Holly 11am update Storm Details: Timing... In stark contrast to the system earlier this week, this will be a quick hitter with most of the precipitation being in and out of the area in about 12 hours. Precipitation should begin working into the area from SW-NE around 06-09Z with precipitation reaching far NW areas by 12-15Z. The system`s departure will also be rapid with precipitation largely ending from SW-NE between 18-21Z. Precipitation Types... Unlike the previous two significant winter events we had, there will not be a cold/dry antecedent airmass in place when precipitation begins early Sunday morning. Rather a "stale" airmass characterized by temperatures in the low 30s and dewpoints in the upper 20s/lower 30s will be in place. Additionally the heaviest snowfall will likely occur during the daytime hours, which while not overly significant in early February, can limit accumulations somewhat. The one pro for snowfall accumulations will be the intensity of lift within the aforementioned FGEN band, and dynamical cooling within this band should nudge temperatures down. Given all these factors, expect that areas NW of I-95 will see nearly all snow, areas near I-95 will likely see mostly snow, but could see some rain mix in at times (particularly when rates are low), with some mixing likely in southern Delmarva and the Coastal Plain of NJ. Given that we won`t really have a CAD setup in place think significant sleet is unlikely, although right at ptype transition zones we could see it briefly mix in. Snow Amounts... A very challenging forecast given uncertainties in both the northward extent of QPF, and the southward extent of accumulating snowfall. After a consistent northward/more amplified trend Thursday, there has been a bit of "windshield wipering" the last couple cycles with the low`s placement and thus the resulting placement of QPF/snowfall. The latest consensus is a low positioned a bit further SE of the 18Z suite`s consensus, which would place the I-95 corridor in the sweet spot of this event (i.e. the intersection of sufficiently cold profiles and sufficiently high QPF) and the current placement of the winter storm warning reflects this. However, any northward shifts would likely cut snow amounts (due to increased mixing) near and SE of I-95 while bumping up amounts in the NW, with the converse happening with a any southern shifts. But, assuming a perfect prog, amounts in the 4-7 inch range look likely in the vicinity of the I-95 corridor with 3-5 inch amounts buffering this on either side (where advisories are in place). The most significant modifications to the snowfall forecast with this package was near the coast, where a mix with rain looks likely and amounts will largely be under 2 inches. It should be noted that there is the potential for higher snowfall amounts within the band (where rates may approach 2 inches an hour), but would like to really get in the CAMs temporal wheelhouse (e.g. <24 hours) before increasing amounts further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Radar is juicy. How are the models dry is beyond me. Radar always looks juicy in the south. Let’s hope models a bit too dry though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Rather surprisingly, WWA for 3-5 in Sullivan now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 51 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Well they are the Meteorologists lol Dynamics suggest more QPF than modeled. That’s part of the reason OKX is more aggressive than what is modeled. We’ll know tomorrow how things worked out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Rather surprisingly, WWA for 3-5 in Sullivan now Surprising since 18z nam took away as compaed to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Newest NAM is probably most realistic. Other models seem too dry for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 20 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Rather surprisingly, WWA for 3-5 in Sullivan now BGM is being a bit bullish. 5" is a reach here in Orange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, snywx said: BGM is being a bit bullish. 5" is a reach here in Orange Even more of a stretch for Sullivan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Looks like the 18Z NAM moved heavier precipitation 30 to 50 miles SESent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, sferic said: Even more of a stretch for Sullivan 1-3" for Sullivan would be my call.. 2-4" in my neck of the woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Radar looks better than the models 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, snywx said: 1-3" for Sullivan would be my call.. 2-4" in my neck of the woods Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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