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2-7-21 Sunday 8-12 hour nor'easter snowstorm roughly 5A-5P

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yep NAM on it’s own right now 

The NAM is in its own universe right now. Outlier in every sense of the word. Upton is going to have to drop total up this way, all the new model runs are spitting out only 2-3 inches total for my area (Rockland) this afternoon. The 6z Euro had 2 inches, there is pretty good agreement and consensus now. This is shaping up to be a very minor event NW of NYC

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Rjay
Rjay

And guys please put the media/met forecasts in the vendor thread before Brian#s has an aneurysm. 

wdrag
wdrag

Friday afternoon 509PM: Title change dropped late 6th-early 8th and reworded Description.  NAM/GGEM/RGEM are tending to be the most robust of the models with a warnable 6-12" event LI and NJ basically

forkyfork
forkyfork

i would wait until the storm ends before criticizing any forecasts

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM is in its own universe right now. Outlier in every sense of the word. Upton is going to have to drop total up this way, all the new model runs are spitting out only 2-3 inches total for my area (Rockland) this afternoon. The 6z Euro had 2 inches, there is pretty good agreement and consensus now. This is shaping up to be a very minor event NW of NYC

Ukie/rgem say minor event everywhere but they may be underdone on the other extreme 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep, this is quickly becoming a very minor event, especially NW of NYC. None of the new model runs have more than 2-3 inches total for my area now. The NAM is on drugs

Models have really sucked this winter and past years. It is sad how we can't even trust them a day out.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models have really sucked this winter and past years. It is sad how we can't even trust them a day out.

I disagree. Models have never been more accurate. People need to stop obsessing over QPF and vendor snow maps and start looking at the model panels - 850mb, 700mb, 500mb etc. We have model information overload these days, and people see what they want to see.

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sussexcountyobs

sussexcountyobs

Posted
Posted

Can you imagine if Upton, or Mt. Holly changed their advisories or snow totals on every new model run that comes out every couple hours?

The public's confusion would be epic. They would probably just be dismissed as pathetic. I know I would dismiss them.  That's why they don't do it. 

Let's see what they say on the afternoon update.

 

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm sticking with 4-8"

Nearly perfect track with intensifying low will not yield 2-4" totals for the coast. 

Whoever can stay snow along the coast - particularly eastern sections, has a shot at 6" of snow I think. But the forecasted SLP is pretty far offshore and it's moving quickly. There isn't a well-defined mid-level circulation to throw moisture back over us. There's a lot more to snow accumulations than track and surface pressure.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Kind of crazy that a day away we can’t forecast a storm properly because the models are all over the place. 

It looks like a pretty straight forward 2-4" forecast for now with a mention of up to 6" or so if and where banding sets up. Model consensus overall is pretty good IMO. The NAM track is slightly west of consensus.

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e46and2

e46and2

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

They have been spot on.

You just dont like what they are telling you.

There hasnt been one storm that occurred or didnt occur that wasnt accurately modeled when within the proper range of the model.

This is a scraper. Has been for days. This forum is trying to make this Blizzard Part 2. You will be disappointed if you do that.

3-6 inches. If we are lucky. 

 

 

this was not obvious to anyone in the way you are making it seem.  red taggers have been waffling for days on this storm as well, with forky warning it could come further NW and threaten coastal sections with rain.

i agree people like to see what they want to see, but to imply this has been a "scraper" for days isn't totally fair.  we are simply reaching that consensus now.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

They have been spot on.

You just dont like what they are telling you.

There hasnt been one storm that occurred or didnt occur that wasnt accurately modeled when within the proper range of the model.

This is a scraper. Has been for days. This forum is trying to make this Blizzard Part 2. You will be disappointed if you do that.

3-6 inches. If we are lucky. 

 

They have been spot on ? Uh?

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, e46and2 said:

 

this was not obvious to anyone in the way you are making it seem.  red taggers have been waffling for days on this storm as well, with forky warning it could come further NW and threaten coastal sections with rain.

i agree people like to see what they want to see, but to imply this has been a "scraper" for days isn't totally fair.  we are simply reaching that consensus now.

Forky stated how he thought this storm was going to be more northwest which can still happen but we are running out of time. 

The models have been awful with this storm. 

This looks like a few inches to me

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e46and2

e46and2

Posted
Posted
Just now, MJO812 said:

Forky stated how he thought this storm was going to be more northwest which can still happen but we are running out of time. 

The models have been awful with this storm. 

This looks like a few inches to me

wasn't an insult to forky, simply pointing out how this was never an obvious forecast for those thinking the outcome has been locked in for days.

i wouldn't say awful.  they vary quite a bit for sensible weather in our tiny geographic area of the world, but the reality is the overall synoptics are only shifting slightly.  the chance you take being on the razor's edge.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Forky stated how he thought this storm was going to be more northwest which can still happen but we are running out of time. 

The models have been awful with this storm. 

This looks like a few inches to me

All the way home from running errands I am hearing on the news on radio 3-6 inches and intensity ( with one station going 5-9 ) and it sounds like a lock. I get home, come here and find that we're more like 1-3.....jeez

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

All the way home from running errands I am hearing on the news on radio 36 inches and intensity ( with one station going 5-9 ) and it sounds like a lock. I get home, come here and find that we're more like 1-3.....jeez

Globals are weaker compared to the Nam and Herpie derpes.

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kat5hurricane

kat5hurricane

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models have really sucked this winter and past years. It is sad how we can't even trust them a day out.

The models pretty much nailed the last event only a day out. They've been fine. 

This was never going to be a big event because the storm is moving so fast, it's a moderate sized 3-6 inch deal less west more east. The models never spit out a major event with this one, at least not the consensus.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

The models pretty much nailed the last event only a day out. They've been fine. 

This was never going to be a big event because the storm is moving so fast, it's a moderate sized 3-6 inch deal less west more east. The models never spit out a major event with this one, at least not the consensus.

Euro did while we were digging our from the last storm lol

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

The mid-level s/w on most guidance is not very sharp, which inhibits the precip. shield from making it too far NW and also allows the system to be shunted eastward.

But the solution is very sensitive to the s/w sharpness. Heavier banding could easily shift 50 miles one way or the other from a very minor change in upper level features.

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sussexcountyobs

sussexcountyobs

Posted
Posted

My forecast hasn't waivered since early yesterday morning. 3-5". We are only under WWA. I'd be happy with just 2" honestly. That would put me at 50" for the season. Plus, after this storm we have at least 3 snow potentials in the next week and a half. By mid February, I will maybe be at 60" or above. With 2nd half of February and all of March to go.

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White Gorilla

White Gorilla

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

My forecast hasn't waivered since early yesterday morning. 3-5". We are only under WWA. I'd be happy with just 2" honestly. That would put me at 50" for the season. Plus, after this storm we have at least 3 snow potentials in the next week and a half. By mid February, I will maybe be at 60" or above. With 2nd half of February and all of March to go.

Same.  If our area only gets a 2-3 inch refresher, I am OK with it.  Lot more snow chances to come.  Plus I have plans tomorrow that I want to see through without much snow disruption 

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