HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: If this is an Ocean/ Monmouth/LI special we won't see a whole lot in our neck of the woods, like a 2-4, unless we go 4-8 and they go higher. Seen this set up a lot of times in recent years. East is not good for us, nor is too far west. We straddle the storm lines, it seems. Same in southern westchester but usually do better with storms that favor eastern locations than marginal setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: If this is an Ocean/ Monmouth/LI special we won't see a whole lot in our neck of the woods, like a 2-4, unless we go 4-8 and they go higher. Seen this set up a lot of times in recent years. East is not good for us, nor is too far west. We straddle the storm lines, it seems. I fully expect a bump west in track. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Don't underestimate the nam in this range. It's been pretty good with the 2 big storms this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Friday afternoon 509PM: Title change dropped late 6th-early 8th and reworded Description. NAM/GGEM/RGEM are tending to be the most robust of the models with a warnable 6-12" event LI and NJ basically s of I78 with lesser amounts north. Banding and decent snow growth may permit this but ensembles and other modeling indicate a little less. I think the minimum snowfall in our NYC subforum counties will be 2". Am not too worried about sleet on the southern edge for our area. Bottom line, shovels and snowblowers will be needed before the Super Bowl and safely keep those hydrant areas cleaned, and gutters from having dammed up meltwater icicles. Flat roofs might have some structure problems if the water content of the remaining snow exceeds limits (unknown to me). If removing snow, especially roofs/gutters-----safety FIRST. Walt- I have 24 inches still on the ground in Macungie? Snow loads are rapidly becoming problematical in the LV as two major building have been destroyed and a Amazon warehouse under construction had to be evacuated. Do you see another 6-12 for us in the LV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Another bump northwest by the Euro 12z 54 hours vs 18z 48 hours 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 On 2/4/2021 at 7:50 AM, MJO812 said: Not surprising that the models are bringing the storm back . the classic pattern of Euro sniffing out a storm in the long range, losing it in the mid range and it and other models bringing it back in the short range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Regular map and Kuchera A little more northwest and this will be a significant snowstorm both are labeled as Kuchera and the newer one (bottom) seems to show that the heaviest precip has moved NW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Can't wait for the 00Z suite 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I think the metro is in a good spot for this. There's still some wiggle room for a western push from most of the models. I think we'll get 6-10" with local spots near a foot. Lee Goldberg mentioned an 8" jackpot somewhere between S CT, W Nassau and Monmouth county and a very photogenic all day snowstorm with heavy snowfall rates in the middle of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Not liking it. The goods get going too far east. it doesn't look right.....note where the position of the low is....the heaviest precip is going to be NE of the low? That low is going west of the BM on that track and MVY should be changing to rain based on that track with heavy snow further to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 hours ago, Blizzardo said: I actually miss Bill Evans in the mornings.... lol This would've been one of his "Booyaaa" 4-8 tomorrow calls...lmao he used to be on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: it can only come so far north with the arctic front right behind it.... it reminds me of one of those classic early 90s storms that literally came out of nowhere, all day photogenic snow before we had a brief arctic shot.....back then these deals would dump about 4-8 inches, let's see what this one does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: both are labeled as Kuchera and the newer one (bottom) seems to show that the heaviest precip has moved NW Good catch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Lee Goldberg mentioned an 8" jackpot somewhere between S CT, W Nassau and Monmouth county and a very photogenic all day snowstorm with heavy snowfall rates in the middle of the day. That's super specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Rjay said: That's super specific. it caught my ear too.... the first time in my life I've heard Western Nassau jackpot lmao "Stay tuned at 11" was the tag at the end to tell us "where I paint the snowfall jackpot" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 And guys please put the media/met forecasts in the vendor thread before Brian#s has an aneurysm. 4 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: it caught my ear too.... the first time in my life I've heard Western Nassau jackpot lmao "Stay tuned at 11" was the tag at the end to tell us "where I paint the snowfall jackpot" Is that the same Lee Goldberg that had NYC 6-10 24 hours before the last storm? Now they are getting specific mentioning western nassau? Yeah ok. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Is that the same Lee Goldberg that had NYC 6-10 24 hours before the last storm? Now they are getting specific mentioning western nassau? Yeah ok. yeah he's been shady lately....I also remember last year he said that the city had snow in late May back in the 60s which was in fact a hail event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, Rjay said: And guys please put the media/met forecasts in the vendor thread before Brian#s has an aneurysm. Shouldn't we do away with this anachronistic practice? I mean, we have pro mets posting their forecasts here, they don't have to go to the vendor thread...what's so different about someone posting a pro forecast someone else made? Just food for thought. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 hours ago, Blizzardo said: I actually miss Bill Evans in the mornings.... lol This would've been one of his "Booyaaa" 4-8 tomorrow calls...lmao ..Bill Evan's is out here on the east end..him & his wife purchased WLNG radio station in Sag Harbor.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Battendown said: I say 1-3 nyc. She’s gonna honk out of the NOrth and blow it out and east. Maybe good hit out east. Based off what? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, Battendown said: I say 1-3 nyc. She’s gonna honk out of the NOrth and blow it out and east. Maybe good hit out east. Maybe you should forecast for one of the major news outlets. You would fit right in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Every model has over 6” for for NYC metro and east need I say more. I am thinking 6-12 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, Battendown said: I say 1-3 nyc. She’s gonna honk out of the NOrth and blow it out and east. Maybe good hit out east. There’s nothing coming from the north to blow this one east LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 15 minutes ago, Battendown said: I say 1-3 nyc. She’s gonna honk out of the NOrth and blow it out and east. Maybe good hit out east. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said: Every model has over 6” for for NYC metro and east need I say more. I am thinking 6-12 These set ups often don't favor areas of NJ just west of the city; at times the Hudson itself seems to be like a cutoff. Any thoughts on those areas; Middlesex, Union, Somerset counties? The geography of NJ can sometimes mean areas like Ocean and Monmouth do better and then the storm bands just keep moving east. I have seen this too many times to count. BUt hey, still digging out of 18 of snow and sleet here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 49 minutes ago, Rjay said: And guys please put the media/met forecasts in the vendor thread before Brian#s has an aneurysm. LOL Nothing gets my goat more than reading model analysis and then "Janice Huff says only 1-3" 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: LOL Nothing gets my goat more than reading model analysis and then "Janice Huff says only 1-3" The worst 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The SREF is ugly for areas i95 and south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: The SREF is ugly for areas i95 and south and east. I’m not losing sleep over it given how over overamped it usually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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