North and West Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, crossbowftw3 said: that's still close to upper bound WWA for inland areas Morris County is about that 3-6 range, so it doesn't qualify for a watch at this point. To be honest, I would be fine with it hitting elsewhere. I'd like my roof, downspouts, and drains to have ample time to melt. We had a general 1-2" quick hitter this morning (melted already, but still). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, mob1 said: That'll likely change if more models come in NW. In fact, I think it's quite likely that Rockland County sees warning level snow. Even into Orange dutchess Sullivan counties if there are any further ticks west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Even into Orange dutchess Sullivan counties if there are any further ticks west Marginal warning at that, it would still be just as possible to issue a high end WWA for 4-7. Don't like the idea overall for anything over that this far inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: Not double digit for NYC, but I always think of this one for a quick hitter, Miller A : https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=SPSNYC&e=199602030203 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=NOWNYC&e=199602030349 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSNYC&e=199602031520 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 craig allen is calling for 4-8 for the city and 6-12 for down the jersey shore and east across long island.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 RGEM is a scraper NW areas get very little. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: RGEM is a scraper NW areas get very little. Coast does well it seems - dependent on thermal profiles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 29 minutes ago, nycwinter said: craig allen is calling for 4-8 for the city and 6-12 for down the jersey shore and east across long island.. An oldie, but a goodie. One of the best 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yes he is 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I actually miss Bill Evans in the mornings.... lol This would've been one of his "Booyaaa" 4-8 tomorrow calls...lmao 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I like listening to Craig allen too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 keep the so and so says 4-8 to the vendor thread pls. Doesn't belong in this thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 What is exactly going on here with the GFS....? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said: What is exactly going on here with the GFS....? Not liking it. The goods get going too far east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 What is exactly going on here with the GFS....?drugs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: you thought so. i didn't Every storm everyone worries about rain. This is not winter 2020 anymore. This is not a rain threat based on current guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, North and West said: drugs . I can’t tell if the pink is mixing or super heavy snow, I think the latter? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: What is exactly going on here with the GFS....? F*** Martha's Vineyard in particular. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Rgem is actually east of its 12z run. NAM is the western outlier right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Every storm everyone worries about rain. This is not winter 2020 anymore. This is not a rain threat based on current guidance. There is a extent to how far west this can go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Every storm everyone worried about rain. This is not a rain threat based on current guidance. I think this one is done coming NW, the models are coming back from the overcorrect. You had the suppression earlier on in the week which was dead wrong, then the models corrected when they realized they underestimated the SE Ridge, we saw an overcorrection yesterday and this morning, now they have evened out, the RGEM just came east from its far west track earlier. I can easily see an eastern NYC and LI jackpot here. The 18z RGEM is actually matching up very well with the 12z EPS. I really don’t see this one becoming a NW suburb (Rockland, Orange, Bergen, Passaic, northern Westchester, Sussex, Sullivan) jackpot. NAM is too far west. Outlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I think this one is done coming NW, the models are coming back from the overcorrect. You had the suppression earlier on in the week which was dead wrong, then the models corrected when they realized they underestimated the SE Ridge, we saw an overcorrection yesterday and this morning, now they have evened out, the RGEM just came east from its far west track earlier. I can easily see an eastern NYC and LI jackpot here. The 18z RGEM is actually matching up very well with the 12z EPS. I really don’t see this one becoming a NW suburb (Rockland, Orange, Bergen, Passaic, northern Westchester, Sussex, Sullivan) jackpot. NAM is too far west. Outlier Agree usually if it was going to trend more west the models would just keep trending west and west like the two big storms we’ve had. I still think 3-6 for the city and 6-12 for central and eastern LI is a good call. Nice storm but not a big one city on west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 might be one of those freak scenarios where li gets more than anyone else. we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: There is a extent to how far west this can go. I think the metro is in a good spot for this. There's still some wiggle room for a western push from most of the models. I think we'll get 6-10" with local spots near a foot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Friday afternoon 509PM: Title change dropped late 6th-early 8th and reworded Description. NAM/GGEM/RGEM are tending to be the most robust of the models with a warnable 6-12" event LI and NJ basically s of I78 with lesser amounts north. Banding and decent snow growth may permit this but ensembles and other modeling indicate a little less. I think the minimum snowfall in our NYC subforum counties will be 2". Am not too worried about sleet on the southern edge for our area. Bottom line, shovels and snowblowers will be needed before the Super Bowl and safely keep those hydrant areas cleaned, and gutters from having dammed up meltwater icicles. Flat roofs might have some structure problems if the water content of the remaining snow exceeds limits (unknown to me). If removing snow, especially roofs/gutters-----safety FIRST. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, wdrag said: Friday afternoon 509PM: Title change dropped late 6th-early 8th and reworded Description. NAM/GGEM/RGEM are tending to be the most robust of the models with a warnable 6-12" event LI and NJ basically s of I78 with lesser amounts north. Banding and decent snow growth may permit this but ensembles and other modeling indicate a little less. I think the minimum snowfall in our NYC subforum counties will be 2". Am not too worried about sleet on the southern edge for our area. Bottom line, shovels and snowblowers will be needed before the Super Bowl and safely keep those hydrant areas cleaned, and gutters from having dammed up meltwater icicles. Flat roofs might have some structure problems if the water content of the remaining snow exceeds limits (unknown to me). If removing snow, especially roofs/gutters-----safety FIRST. one lucky element from the last storm-high winds blew alot of the snow off roofs..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 WSW issued for nyc/li and immediate suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 40 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think the metro is in a good spot for this. There's still some wiggle room for a western push from most of the models. I think we'll get 6-10" with local spots near a foot. If this is an Ocean/ Monmouth/LI special we won't see a whole lot in our neck of the woods, like a 2-4, unless we go 4-8 and they go higher. Seen this set up a lot of times in recent years. East is not good for us, nor is too far west. We straddle the storm lines, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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