weathermedic Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Watches up for the city/long island and nearby counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, sferic said: @Ericjcrash @snywx @crossbowftw3 Deleware, Sullivan and orange counties represented here; 18z nam way NW Thoughts? 3-6 still seems good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 WSW for the possibility of 5" - 7" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: NAM is still good for the coast but you definitely don't want it amped anymore without it becoming an inland focused event and a chunk of it being rain or a dryslot from the city east. The mid level lows all trended about 50 miles NW from last run. Only NAM 3k is like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Its also the most amped model we have right now Hopefully this is as amped as it gets and others don't make a big leap NW. 3k NAM was even more amped and brings a dryslot in. This winter you can never rule it out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I want it a tick or two NW so the majority of us are happy from Long Island to the Catskills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully this is as amped as it gets and others don't make a big leap NW. 3k NAM was even more amped and brings a dryslot in. This winter you can never rule it out. Low has been tucked with every storm we have gotten this winter. Insane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, sferic said: I want it a tick or two NW so the majority of us are happy from Long Island to the Catskills Another tick or 2 and LI is rain. This isn't the type of storm that will make everyone happy. I could see this trending closer to the coast. We'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Rjay said: Another tick or 2 and LI is rain. This isn't the type of storm that will make everyone happy. Ok 1/2 of a tick so we can share in the wsw here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It’s still plenty cold even with the more tucked in track. for now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, bluewave said: It’s still plenty cold even with the more tucked in track. Any closer and it's an issue out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: for now I thought suppression was an issue ? Now people are worried about rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: I thought suppression was an issue ? Now people are worried about rain. you thought so. i didn't 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully this is as amped as it gets and others don't make a big leap NW. 3k NAM was even more amped and brings a dryslot in. This winter you can never rule it out. yep-last 2 storms have had sleet well N and W of where anyone thought it would be. It's part of living at the coast. Either way we get a ferocious front end dump. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I thought suppression was an issue ? Now people are worried about rain. it can only come so far north with the arctic front right behind it.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lawnguyland Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NWS just issued Winter Storm Watch for Nassau county, 4 to 8 inches. Booooom Shakalaka! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: you thought so. i didn't Okay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I feel like all winter the SE ridge has been discussed as being stronger than modeled. I think the correction closer to the coast is reflective of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Gives me another 13"... I take to the Bank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Rgem is west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: I feel like all winter the SE ridge has been discussed as being stronger than modeled. I think the correction closer to the coast is reflective of that. It’s more that the shortwave is absurdly strong down south. The NAM would indicate that even if this ticked 40 miles more west this thing could be wrapped enough that areas that mix or change to rain but still have the low track just east of them could flip back to very heavy snow for a period of 2-3 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rgem is west THE LP is east of 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s more that the shortwave is absurdly strong down south. The NAM would indicate that even if this ticked 40 miles more west this thing could be wrapped enough that areas that mix or change to rain but still have the low track just east of them could flip back to very heavy snow for a period of 2-3 hours Yep. Showing up as impressive with moisture feed/jet. Also think the PNA help is here with this at moment as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 No Winter Storm Watch from Upton for Rockland, Orange, Northern Westchester or Passaic, or western Bergen County. They are calling for a very quick mover, 7am-2pm, 3-5 inches of snow total in my area (Rockland) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 That’s still an advisory type situation though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: No Winter Storm Watch from Upton for Rockland, Orange, Northern Westchester or western Bergen County. They are calling for a very quick mover, 7am-2pm, 3-5 inches of snow total in my area (Rockland) if history is correct NW areas will likely do best....$100 says those watches are extended NW by tonight or tomorrow AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Greg g said: That’s still an advisory type situation though that's still close to upper bound WWA for inland areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, crossbowftw3 said: that's still close to upper bound WWA for inland areas Yes very true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Greg g said: That’s still an advisory type situation though That'll likely change if more models come in NW. In fact, I think it's quite likely that Rockland County sees warning level snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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