NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Gfs wasn't far from delivering. Big runs tonight. The 0Z and 12Z runs have the updated Radiosonde data which should deliver a more accurate model run then the previous 06Z and 18Z runs....... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The 0Z and 12Z runs have the updated Radiosonde data which should deliver a more accurate model run then the previous 06Z and 18Z runs....... 18z and 6z runs also incorporate updated data. It’s a myth that somehow they just run off previous 12z or 0z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 18z and 6z runs also incorporate updated data. It’s a myth that somehow they just run off previous 12z or 0z data. I was talking about the balloons they only launch for the 0Z and 12Z runs which incorporate the most important new upper air data..........18Z and 06Z aren't as accurate with any other new data in them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Did the GEFS come more NW than 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Did the GEFS come more NW than 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Thanks. Wow spread increased. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 26 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 18z and 6z runs also incorporate updated data. It’s a myth that somehow they just run off previous 12z or 0z data. I think that’s a half truth. From what I understand they use 6hr data from the previous run, and add some new data. I might be explaining this wrong but I had a convo with a met on phillywx. Regardless off runs are still updated and worth taking serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 It would be fun if we could get a winter of snow like the tropics had a summer of hurricanes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 hours ago, TriPol said: I'm SO confused. I've never heard of any winter where two 10"+ snowstorms impacted the NYC Metro area a week apart. This isn’t likely to be 10+ it’s a fast mover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: This isn’t likely to be 10+ it’s a fast mover Agreed. This is more of a 3-6 with pops to 8-9 if full potential reached 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: This isn’t likely to be 10+ it’s a fast mover there could be, but a very isolated exception rather than the norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Agreed. This is more of a 3-6 with pops to 8-9 if full potential reached If full potential reached and inland areas get hit than maybe with ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Bring this one on. a nice little event to make the super bowl even better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18z Euro relatively unchanged with position. Less robust precipitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, Nibor said: 18z Euro relatively unchanged with position. Less robust precipitation. Most likely late to the party. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Most likely late to the party. We will see. Fairly confident we’ll see uptick on euro as we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 We want this to hold and slowly trend NW when it's under 48hrs. No issue with confluence here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said: If I had to make an early guess I'd almost certainly bet 4-8/6-10 across the region with the 10 most common on the coasts and just inland. For @snywx @sferic and I 4-7" seems most plausible I'll take it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'll update in the morning if any change from this morning and the initial thread. I think the range in our forum is generally 1-9" with 9" unlikely (NAM already has 8" as did the EC wayyy back) but we want to resolve the model differences. For the heavier 4+ amounts I want to the see GGEM/RGEM continue to edge north in their future cycles and remaining models hold firm. Overall, I see a potential advisory event for a portion of the forum but cant rule out 6+ LI/NJ. Will take a longer look at this tomorrow. The only other note I have, if this does come to pass, as it appears, this will be the second successive event that the EC had a good idea about 5-7days out or beyond, and then all models lost it at about 96-114 hours and recovered northward (not as far north as D6-7) beginning at about 84 hours. Others might see it different? It remains to be seen if this forecast on forecast is going to verify. This history of models losing an event well modeled in the courser modeling 6-7 days in advance and then losing it closer in, hen reacquiring in the shorter term dates back decades. This is written (96-120 hr loss, then reacquisition ~84 hours) needs to be debunked, or, it's something that I will be looking forward to, the rest of this winter, for possible subsequent events. Later, Walt 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Sref is amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Sref is amped My question is how amped and closer to the coast can this storm get before causing mixing or changeover issues along the coast especially ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Sref is amped When are they not amped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, mikem81 said: When are they not amped? ARW is over Cleveland and the NMB is over Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, mikem81 said: When are they not amped? They were pretty significantly too amped with the past storm at around this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: ARW is over Cleveland and the NMB is over Bermuda. I hope there’s some kind of weird micro CCB over your car only that drops 3 feet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: They were pretty significantly too amped with the past storm at around this range. Didn’t some places receive nearly 3 feet of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Didn’t some places receive nearly 3 feet of snow? They had a large chunk of the storm as rain here but 95% of it was snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Did someone say the NAM was going away? If so, what’s replacing it? Know it can have its movement sometimes, but it definitely has its strengths at times and can give good signals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I will miss the NAM at the short range it does very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Looks like the 0z NAM is going to be a little east and dryer. The H5 height field is slightly less favorable. Still a close call with plenty of time to nudge closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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