psv88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 34 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 0.4" QPF contour runs across LI on every piece of 18z guidance I've seen except the 12km NAM and a handful of SREF and ensemble members. And those have been shifting east. LI is 120 miles long 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 22 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Not necessarily that simple but I respect sticking with your forecast. I don’t think it’ll be a total bust and sticking with 3-6 for nyc Good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Don't exaggerate. We've only been tracking this storm for a few days. 24/14F here, though the rate of cooling has leveled off quite a bit with the high clouds streaming in. Still 38 here not really worried about precip type tomorrow at all though but may be a wetter snow if temps don’t fully cooperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 this is good 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I think those heavier amounts will end up 20-30 further NW like we saw with past storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think those heavier amounts will end up 20-30 further NW like we saw with past storm. Possibly could happen there also may be an inland band as some models have hinted and the places between the coastal and and inland band would get the biggest shaft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Im at 34F up in Westchester. Temps in city still in low 40s. This airmass has been quite a bit warmer than forecast over the last 3 days. Dont know if that affects things tomorrow for the start...but def marginal temps going into this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, jfklganyc said: Im at 34F up in Westchester. Temps in city still in low 40s. This airmass has been quite a bit warmer than forecast over the last 3 days. Dont know if that affects things tomorrow for the start...but def marginal temps going into this. This is not a marginal event by any means. Look at the dewpoints Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Consider anything more than a good snowpack builder a bonus. Southern stream systems typically end up wetter/north in the end. Hopefully this follows that pattern. In Long Beach this weekend-decent chance at 6+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riverrat Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 16 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this is good This is what we want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, psv88 said: This is not a marginal event by any means. Look at the dewpoints Yea it’s not marginal in the sense of precipitation type concerns but agree with poster that at the start it might be a bit warm in some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, riverrat said: This is what we want to see Can you elaborate....this still looks like the heaviest stuff is south and east to my untrained eye, and not good for areas like Wayne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 24 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Im at 34F up in Westchester. Temps in city still in low 40s. This airmass has been quite a bit warmer than forecast over the last 3 days. Dont know if that affects things tomorrow for the start...but def marginal temps going into this. That has little to no effect due to wet bulbing. We saw 55+ temps a day before a snowstorm before. Looks like city is 40/18 right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea it’s not marginal in the sense of precipitation type concerns but agree with poster that at the start it might be a bit warm in some areas Maybe in lighter rates in time square. During heavy rates it will stick everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 26F here. Locked and loaded, ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: Maybe in lighter rates in time square. During heavy rates it will stick everywhere If we get heavy rates lol (less of a concern on LI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Our future precip. is currently in TN. It looks pretty well modeled to me so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: 26F here. Locked and loaded, ready to go. Here too. 24/12. Expecting 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The RGEM hits Suffolk Co. pretty hard. Mostly light accumulations west of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 30/25 in nw Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowzone Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 27.5 degrees, dew point 20 with thin overcast skies in North Haledon, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, psv88 said: 30/25 in nw Suffolk 38 in Long Beach still. I miss Huntington. Not much difference in snow that fell on Monday but a pretty big negative difference in snow left from there to here driving down last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: 38 in Long Beach still. I miss Huntington. When did you return to LB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The GFS cut back QPF from 18z. Shifted east slightly. No help there. Minor accumulations NW of NYC. Could still be a quick and disruptive 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Half inch to 2 inches for the boroughs, though i doubt it sticks given weak rates predicted on the models. Next 2 threats look good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: When did you return to LB? Just here for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 21 minutes ago, eduggs said: The GFS cut back QPF from 18z. Shifted east slightly. No help there. Minor accumulations NW of NYC. Could still be a quick and disruptive 1-3. This is one in a series of snow events unlike last winter when it was pulling teeth even to get tomorrow to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 22 minutes ago, wizard021 said: Half inch to 2 inches for the boroughs, though i doubt it sticks given weak rates predicted on the models. Next 2 threats look good. Thursday and next weekend, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, eduggs said: The GFS cut back QPF from 18z. Shifted east slightly. No help there. Minor accumulations NW of NYC. Could still be a quick and disruptive 1-3. Unfortunately seems the trend is undeniable and this is becoming a nuisance event west of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Thursday and next weekend, correct? For north of the city Tuesday is also a threat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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