Northof78 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 NAM looks good @ 84, but still too early to fully extend out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 3:26 PM, Northof78 said: NAM looks good @ 84, but still too early to fully extend out Expand Yep more amped in the midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 may be a case where models don't pick it up until 48 hrs out-happened several times in the cold winters of 13-14 and 14-15 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 2:42 PM, donsutherland1 said: I am not aware of such storms following closely. However, there were two cases where a 10" snowfall was followed less than one week later by another 6" or greater snowfall in New York City: November 26-27, 1898: 10.0" and November 29-30, 1898: 6.0" February 3-4, 1926: 10.4" and February 9-10, 1926: 12.0" Expand some more dual 6" snowfalls or better in a weeks time... 2/7-8/1899.....6.5" 2/12-13/99.....16.0"... 1/31/1882......8.0" 2/4-5/1882.....9.0" 2/19-20/1934..7.6" 2/25-26/1934..9.3" 3/16-17/1956..6.7" 3/18-19/1956...11.6" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 3:28 PM, MJO812 said: Yep more amped in the midwest Expand The northern energy needs to slow down in order to phase with the southern vort, correct? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 3:41 PM, uncle W said: some more dual 6" snowfalls or better in a weeks time... 2/7-8/1899.....6.5" 2/12-13/99.....16.0"... 1/31/1882......8.0" 2/4-5/1882.....9.0" 2/19-20/1934..7.6" 2/25-26/1934..9.3" 3/16-17/1956..6.7" 3/18-19/1956...11.6" Expand Yes. I was focused on significant snowfalls that followed major snowfalls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 3:41 PM, uncle W said: some more dual 6" snowfalls or better in a weeks time... 2/7-8/1899.....6.5" 2/12-13/99.....16.0"... 1/31/1882......8.0" 2/4-5/1882.....9.0" 2/19-20/1934..7.6" 2/25-26/1934..9.3" 3/16-17/1956..6.7" 3/18-19/1956...11.6" Expand Anyone else find it interesting that despite the phenomenal seasonal snowfall totals we've had around here, even including 1995/1996, that we haven't cracked this list? Maybe because a lot of our recent great seasons have occurred without exceptional cold, and it's harder to thread the needle twice in a week in such conditions? Edit: I'll get back in my lane now lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 2:41 PM, allgame830 said: What did the the 0z EPS show?? Expand South east of 12z. Not terrible but not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 1:35 PM, HVSnowLover said: Feb 2010 and possibly Feb 2014 were the last times I can remember a pattern with snow on top of snow Expand February 2015 around here. We were building snow pack from January into the second week of March. Pretty much every snowfall that winter fell onto previously existing snowpack. 20" snowpack of mostly old snow a week into March isn't typical around here. /understatement 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 3:19 PM, MJO812 said: Especially the north shore Expand 25 year average here is 39". I think Upton is similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Ukie is a huge whiff for this weekend. What a terrible performance by the Euro and EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Newarks 17" snow depth on the 1st of the month set a record for snow depth for the 1st...17" on the second is also a record... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 5:01 PM, MJO812 said: Ukie is a huge whiff for this weekend. What a terrible performance by the Euro and EPS. Expand Euro was 6-7 days out-that's nowhere near a lock 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The northern stream energy for this potential is somewhere off the coast of NW canada right now....calm down 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 3:58 PM, coastalplainsnowman said: Anyone else find it interesting that despite the phenomenal seasonal snowfall totals we've had around here, even including 1995/1996, that we haven't cracked this list? Maybe because a lot of our recent great seasons have occurred without exceptional cold, and it's harder to thread the needle twice in a week in such conditions? Edit: I'll get back in my lane now lol Expand Layman’s take on the changing climate: it would make sense that we are trending towards more extremes... that more of our snow is coming from larger events. It’s harder to sustain cold that allows small systems to stack up snow... but when we thread the needle, with much more ocean moisture to work with... watch out. I predict we see a 30” + snow in NYC proper in the next 5-10 years 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 5:18 PM, hooralph said: Layman’s take on the changing climate: it would make sense that we are trending towards more extremes... that more of our snow is coming from larger events. It’s harder to sustain cold that allows small systems to stack up snow... but when we thread the needle, with much more ocean moisture to work with... watch out. I predict we see a 30” + snow in NYC proper in the next 5-10 years Expand Great point. Warmer air holds more moisture. The increased tendency for marine heatwaves being driven by climate change creates an increased probability of major snowstorms when synoptic conditions are favorable for storms. These storms can produce far more snowfall than had been the case without the warming/marine heatwaves even if all other variables are held constant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 and the GFSv16 is back trying hard to save the day ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 5:18 PM, hooralph said: Layman’s take on the changing climate: it would make sense that we are trending towards more extremes... that more of our snow is coming from larger events. It’s harder to sustain cold that allows small systems to stack up snow... but when we thread the needle, with much more ocean moisture to work with... watch out. I predict we see a 30” + snow in NYC proper in the next 5-10 years Expand On 2/3/2021 at 5:38 PM, donsutherland1 said: Great point. Warmer air holds more moisture. The increased tendency for marine heatwaves being driven by climate change creates an increased probability of major snowstorms when synoptic conditions are favorable for storms. These storms can produce far more snowfall than had been the case without the warming/marine heatwaves even if all other variables are held constant. Expand Not downplaying any of your points about climate change but wondering if the difference had more to do with measurement technique than what was actually falling from the sky? NYC back in the late 1800's to 1930's would have been about as cold as the parts of the mid hudson valley today. These areas are averaging over 40" per year currently and they are further from the coast so maybe are a bit drier, while NYC back then was still around/below 30" per year if Im not mistaken? Were the people doing the measurments back then including every storm no matter how minor? Were they measuring every 6 hrs during large storms or just plopping in a yard stick at some point after the storm was over with compaction already having taken a serious bite out of the totals? Seems data integrity could at least be part of the story. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 5:54 PM, deathstar9 said: Not downplaying any of your points about climate change but wondering if the difference had more to do with measurement technique than what was actually falling from the sky? NYC back in the late 1800's to 1930's would have been about as cold as the parts of the mid hudson valley today. These areas are averaging over 40" per year currently and they are further from the coast so maybe are a bit drier, while NYC back then was still around/below 30" per year if Im not mistaken? Were the people doing the measurments back then including every storm no matter how minor? Were they measuring every 6 hrs during large storms or just plopping in a yard stick at some point after the storm was over with compaction already having taken a serious bite out of the totals? Seems data integrity could at least be part of the story. Expand Part of the difference is almost certainly a reflection of differing measurement methodologies. However, the frequency of major snowstorms has increased relative to where it was during the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s when measuring methodologies were essentially the same as they are today. After 1970, New York City has also experienced the emergence of a wetter climate. The same holds true for many of the climate sites in the Northeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Euro is flat like a pancake People got suckered in because of the eps showing alot of hits Smh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 6:26 PM, MJO812 said: Euro is flat like a pancake People got suckered in because of the eps showing alot of hits Smh Expand The 12Z GFSv16 I posted earlier almost phased in time - this 12Z EURO OP doesn't make sense - it shows basically nothing for Sunday offshore and then midweek tries cutting a low west of us into New York State ? ??? Each 12Z model has a totally different solution it seems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 6:33 PM, NEG NAO said: The 12Z GFSv16 I posted earlier almost phased in time - this 12Z EURO OP doesn't make sense - it shows basically nothing for Sunday offshore and then midweek tries cutting a low west of us into New York State ? ??? Expand You're going to see a ton of models changes. Went from a SE ridge to trough and back to SE ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 6:33 PM, NEG NAO said: The 12Z GFSv16 I posted earlier almost phased in time - this 12Z EURO OP doesn't make sense - it shows basically nothing for Sunday offshore and then midweek tries cutting a low west of us into New York State ? ??? Expand GFS and CMC showed a cutter today as well.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 6:36 PM, Brian5671 said: GFS and CMC showed a cutter today as well.... Expand I think this storm is legit vs the flat phaser but it won't be a cutter. Strong 50/50 on Euro and very strong west based block in place. It'll be a SWFE or another Miller B. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 6:36 PM, Brian5671 said: GFS and CMC showed a cutter today as well.... Expand Geps disagrees No storms are cutting through that block. Suppression is a bigger threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Its probably best to wait for the northern stream to be properly sampled before jumping to any conclusions with this storm. When will the northern stream be in a better sampling zone?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 6:15 PM, donsutherland1 said: Part of the difference is almost certainly a reflection of differing measurement methodologies. However, the frequency of major snowstorms has increased relative to where it was during the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s when measuring methodologies were essentially the same as they are today. After 1970, New York City has also experienced the emergence of a wetter climate. The same holds true for many of the climate sites in the Northeast. Expand Got it, guess that makes sense if measurment techniques were the same as today going back to the 50's/60's/70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 5:38 PM, donsutherland1 said: Great point. Warmer air holds more moisture. The increased tendency for marine heatwaves being driven by climate change creates an increased probability of major snowstorms when synoptic conditions are favorable for storms. These storms can produce far more snowfall than had been the case without the warming/marine heatwaves even if all other variables are held constant. Expand While this sounds probable, I am not convinced that the warmer climate is the reason for higher snowfall amounts. Snow in the NYC metro area has always been difficult to come by. It seems most systems have always been on the edge of the rain snow line. Cold air is always a necessary ingredient. As temperatures have increased, I find it difficult to believe that the warmer climate is the reason for our bigger snowfalls over the last 20 years. Warmer air holds more moisture, but is the increase in ocean (or air) temperature proportionately related to the higher snow amounts? Is there actual data/studies proving that the warmer climate is leading to increased snowfall in the NYC area, or just supposition? Or maybe it has to do with the track of the systems (perhaps due to a warming climate)? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 7:09 PM, Dark Star said: While this sounds probable, I am not convinced that the warmer climate is the reason for higher snowfall amounts. Snow in the NYC metro area has always been difficult to come by. It seems most systems have always been on the edge of the rain snow line. Cold air is always a necessary ingredient. As temperatures have increased, I find it difficult to believe that the warmer climate is the reason for our bigger snowfalls over the last 20 years. Warmer air holds more moisture, but is the increase in ocean (or air) temperature proportionately related to the higher snow amounts? Is there actual data/studies proving that the warmer climate is leading to increased snowfall in the NYC area, or just supposition? Or maybe it has to do with the track of the systems (perhaps due to a warming climate)? Expand It's certainly supposition on my part. I know there has been research and studies showing that extreme rain events are (and will continue to become) more likely, and I would think ocean heat content would increase moisture available for snow storms, but it would have to be born out with research. wrt studies... it would be interesting to do a long term analysis of snowdepth, snow cover and snowfall amounts (both season and from individual events) across multiple locations. If the theory holds, we'd theoretically see increases in median and average snowfall from storms... but that snow depth and days with snow cover may not actually be increasing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 7:09 PM, Dark Star said: While this sounds probable, I am not convinced that the warmer climate is the reason for higher snowfall amounts. Snow in the NYC metro area has always been difficult to come by. It seems most systems have always been on the edge of the rain snow line. Cold air is always a necessary ingredient. As temperatures have increased, I find it difficult to believe that the warmer climate is the reason for our bigger snowfalls over the last 20 years. Warmer air holds more moisture, but is the increase in ocean (or air) temperature proportionately related to the higher snow amounts? Is there actual data/studies proving that the warmer climate is leading to increased snowfall in the NYC area, or just supposition? Or maybe it has to do with the track of the systems (perhaps due to a warming climate)? Expand Here’s one recent paper: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abbc93/pdf And one that projects increases in Category 3 and 4 storms (RSI) until mid-century before the frequency declines. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2018GL079820 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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