wdrag Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Sunday morning 618AM update. Leaving the forecast to the NWS and our forum. Please see attached NWS collaborated and SPC ensemble HREF snowfall. Other models a little less than this, so am a little concerned about melting initially NYC-LI coastal NJ (even rain to start for an hour or so); but it should snow hard for a few hours midday. Seems to have a slightly later start. There will be banding and snow ratios may end up near 12 to 1 nw of I95... and only 10 to 1 NYC east and south. 618A/7 Saturday morning 601A: No significant changes. You've got this. Adding a few graphics 00z/6 SPC HREF snow acc, WPC prob of 2 and 8", NWS collaborated snowfall. Follow NWS forecasts warnings/advisories for details and ourselves. Will add the OBS thread around 7PM tonight (am offline much of the afternoon). Heaviest snowfall rates 10A-3P with decent arced banding near I95. Friday afternoon 509PM: Title change dropped late 6th-early 8th and reworded Description. NAM/GGEM/RGEM are tending to be the most robust of the models with a warnable 6-12" event LI and NJ basically s of I78 with lesser amounts north. Banding and decent snow growth may permit this but ensembles and other modeling indicate a little less. I think the minimum snowfall in our NYC subforum counties will be 2". Am not too worried about sleet on the southern edge for our area. Bottom line, shovels and snowblowers will be needed before the Super Bowl and safely keep those hydrant areas cleaned, and gutters from having dammed up meltwater icicles. Flat roofs might have some structure problems if the water content of the remaining snow exceeds limits (unknown to me). If removing snow, especially roofs/gutters-----safety FIRST. Friday the 5th - 649AM: Little change. Snow is coming and will continue increasing area seasonal snow totals higher (pushing normal or above by the start of the Super Bowl). I haven't checked seasonal normals except what I know for NYC (already above) and our area of nw NJ (at or above). Thinking the 06z/5 NAM may be a bit robust and since the GGEM/RGEM are keeping the bigger snowfall se NJ southward, therefore am reluctant thinking of warning amounts in our subforum, more generally a 1-5", 6-12 hour snowfall North to South. A pleasant refresher on an almost national holiday. Three graphics added on the last page. Thursday Feb 4: 614AM topic update. Have dropped the wind event (45MPH+) and wind chill (-15 Poconos) and narrowed the date range. As many are witnessing, the modeling has been uncertain but always the ensembles have suggested a little bit of snow Sunday. Individual model operational cycles have tended to be nil (exception EC and V16 robust early on) until the 06z/4 GFS V15 and 16. The 06z GEFS has developed an 850MB LO just south of LI and increased qpf dramatically. (graphic added). Noting also other 00z/4 ensemble MINOR increases in QPF and NAEFS indications of rapidly developing low pressure as it passes southeast of our subforum Sunday night. Until the ensembles nix the event, am continuing the snow threat. The 00z/4 MEX MOS was only 14% chance of qpf Sunday, so it's difficult to be sure about an event Sunday. Ensembles suggestion and recent GFS northward trend (uncertain) in my mind require consideration of a general 1-4" snow event Sunday (may be melting on pavement on LI with marginal near freezing temps during any snow). I've kept the 9" max in there, just in case the coastal comes closer but 9" is highly unlikely. We do know it's going to be a vigorous event but its northwest proximity to our area is in doubt. Gusty north-northwest winds may follow Sunday night and it could be quite a bit colder Monday morning (near 14 NYC?) than statistical guidance suggests. No thread on the 9th-10th, if ever) until Super Bowl Sunday is better resolved. Added 06z GEFS 24 hr qpf, as well as a number of plumes for LGA , qpf, snow, 2m temps and 850 temp) ----- From the original issuance on Feb 1. This coming wintry weather event(s) will be dwarfed by the Feb 1-2 near blizzard top 10 (changed from 20 to 10 on 2/2) snow storm. It will probably only have moderate impact upon the NYC forum but reemphasize to our NYC forum members that winter has yet to depart, no matter what the Ground Hog says. Modeling envisions a fast moving coastal low, probably around the 7th. Gusty northwest winds of 40-50 MPH behind the storm later Sunday the 7th or Monday the 8th may usher in the coldest NYC temps of the season (so far 14F) for Tuesday morning the 9th. These sub14F wind driven temps arrive on a west wind which is more difficult to permit the anomalous cold to enter NYC, BUT---more than adequate snow depth NYC westward will permit an easier time of crossing the Appalachians. Wind chill advisories are possible for the I84 region of the nw part of our forum (-15 WCI). The wind and coldest of the season (wind chill advisory as well) are the least certain elements of this topic. Thought it would be good to get this coast to coaster thread going for further discussion, especially after the glow of whatever occurs Feb 1-2, is past. My very early take on accums is 1-9" (necessarily broad due to thread the needle fast moving low and development phase- the idea this would much less than 2/1). Still think we need to be cautious about roof snow loads this first half of February, and of course the SAFE removal of same. The driver is the trough coming into the west coast by late Tuesday Feb 2, that eventually merges with a diving short wave into Great Lakes that makes a negative tilt trough drill into the northeast states by Monday the 8th. There will be more than ample blocking in Canada and the early 850MB anomalies in some of the ensemble modeling are quite impressive. I think this will be a pretty big wintry news maker across the northern USA next weekend-early next week. Monday the 1st: Added the NWS D7 ensemble probability of 3+" of snow and the 00z/1 GFS EP MEX guidance. Tuesday the second added the D6 WPC QPF and their updated ensemble probability of 3+ inches of snow 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 615AM/2: no change. Added some WPC ~05z/2 graphics for the event on 1/7. Chance we'll be watching the Super Bowl either during a snow event (rain e LI?) or cleaning up from whatever occurs. Multiple ensembles have something but whether it's a coastal low (probable) or just a strong cold front is debatable. The snow amount range listed suffices, despite the the EC multiple cycles heavier. This give this opportunity a most probable start. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Even a 3-6/6-12 event would give a lot of us snow removal problems no where to put the snow but it’s a problem I’m willing to have 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 36 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Even a 3-6/6-12 event would give a lot of us snow removal problems no where to put the snow but it’s a problem I’m willing to have Good to know! Thanks... sort of suspected. I feel we sort of got lucky late yesterday that the wind blew the snow off the trees/wires and that it wasn't a 32-33F snow instead a 30F snow. So those are immediate considerations ahead. Hopefully all the snow melts slowly without multiple big rains in spring. Certainly going to keep the snow on the ground here NYC west and North for another two weeks, despite melting. Lets' see what happens V16 is north of the EC op... no lock. MOS has us in NYC down to 16 on morning of the 9th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Rarely do we see a significant snow event in this area with a strong cold frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, LoboLeader1 said: Rarely do we see a significant snow event in this area with a strong cold frontal passage. Arctic wave storm. Agree-somewhat rare but there were a couple in the winters of 13-14 and 14-15. They showed up on modeling a couple days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 The Jan 31-Feb 2 storm, with 17.2 inches in Central Park as of 7 am this morning, still stands at number 17 all time in NYC. It will only take another inch though to crack the top 10. Also consider that this is the 17th storm of 17 inches or more in NYC history. In about the same time period in Minneapolis Minnesota (they began their records in the 1880's) they have had only 5 storms above 17 inches. Top 20 Snowstorms All Time Central Park in NYC (through 7 Am February 2, 2021) Rank.Amount..Date 1……..27.5…..January 23, 2016 2……..26.9…..February 11-12, 2006 3……..25.8…..December 26-27, 1947 4……..21.0…..March 12-14, 1888 5……..20.9…..February 25-26, 2010 6……..20.2…..January 7-8, 1996 7……..20.0…..December 26-27, 2010 8……..19.8…..February 16-17, 2003 9……..19.0…..January 26-27, 2011 10…..18.1…..March 7-8, 1941 11…..18.1…..January 22-24, 1935 12…..18.0…..December 26, 1872 13…..17.7…..February 5-7, 1978 14…..17.6…..February 11-12, 1983 15…..17.5…..February 4-7, 1920 16…..17.4…..February 3-4, 1961 17....17.2...Jan 31-February 1, 2021 18…..16.0…..December 19-20, 1948 19…..16.0…..February 12-13, 1899 20…..15.3…..February 9-10, 1969 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Arctic wave storm. Agree-somewhat rare but there were a couple in the winters of 13-14 and 14-15. They showed up on modeling a couple days out. I see a potential gulf coast aka Miller A storm. Ensembles strongly hinting at it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Walt, I can't believe we commented on the same concerns this morning on my blog. Had 30 in of snow in Macungie area this morning- still snowing. Here is the link to this mornings happenings in the Lehigh Valley. Another foot or more snow will cause many buildings to collapse. I am also concerned about sinkhole formation because of the weight of the snow on weaken soils in karst topography. https://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-northampton-bowling-alley-collapse-20210202-jz2ch3qcybbfpmxupy2qooo44m-story.html#nt=pf-double chain~unnamed-chain-1~recommender~automated~mc-breaking-recommender~JZ2CH3QCYBBFPMXUPY2QOOO44M~2~6~3~3~art no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: I see a potential gulf coast aka Miller A storm. Ensembles strongly hinting at it. OP Euro has been showing it, big bomb for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: OP Euro has been showing it, big bomb for a while now. which model is going to cave the OP EURO or OP GFS ? Also very rare around most of the metro to have a significant snowstorm on top of so much snow already on the ground.......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: which model is going to cave the OP EURO or OP GFS ? Also very rare around most of the metro to have a significant snowstorm on top of so much snow already on the ground.......... I'm kinda iffy on this one. I think we'll see snow but probably not so soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 25 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: which model is going to cave the OP EURO or OP GFS ? Also very rare around most of the metro to have a significant snowstorm on top of so much snow already on the ground.......... Gfs Ukie is on board and Geps came west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Never say never for a couple big ones in single winter/timeframe. North mid-atlantic is kind of overdue for a DC (2010-2011) or Boston (back in mid 2010s (can't remember if 2013-2014 or 2014-15) winter...... February looks promising for a few threats over coming 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said: Never say never for a couple big ones in single winter/timeframe. North mid-atlantic is kind of overdue for a DC (2010-2011) or Boston (back in mid 2010s (can't remember if 2013-2014 or 2014-15) winter...... February looks promising for a few threats over coming 2-3 weeks. I didn't think it was possible until DC went through Snowmageddon in 09-10. If they are susceptible to a blizzard parade, then so are we! Here's to hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, Eduardo said: I didn't think it was possible until DC went through Snowmageddon in 09-10. If they are susceptible to a blizzard parade, then so are we! Here's to hoping! Whoops - 2009-2010 - that's right. We did well in both those winters too - but DC cashed in big on the Dec '09 and then again in the 1st week of February and even got in on action a bit in the one we finally got hit with a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Here comes the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Hi 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hi Is there a snow map for this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 mid Atlantic forum, as usual has the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 No shit. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 06z GFSv16 has a storm as well for the 7th. 12z isn't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 IIRC, my favorite storm of all time, 5 days no school, February 1978, was technically a Miller B, but, again, from memory, it was enhanced by mid level energy that pushed an Arctic front through NYC area as the coastal was developing off the Carolinas. I moved from Massapequa 2 years later. Now big storms are nostalgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 12z euro is a fast mover. Maybe 12 Hours of actual snowfall but very intense. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Verbatim - wallops some of the areas that kind of got fringed on this storm/gives nice event to ENJ/NE NJ into LI/CT/MASS. Early but QPF estimates on this run about 1.1-1.4 for areas. Quick mover (about 12 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Quick mover but loaded with moisture on the ecm, looks like over an inch qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Quick mover but loaded with moisture on the ecm, looks like over an inch qpf Basically 0.75 north and west of NYC to 1.25 in Long Island of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Status Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps Based on these graphics, EPS looks a little warm in the BL for us coasties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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