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February Banter 2021


George BM
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8 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

It truly is amazing to see such a flip in a short lead time. 

It's not really. It's basically a crawling warm front with opposing forces. The breadth if very well defined now but what happens inside of that is impossible to nail within a tight 50 mile spread. I'm not surprised at the mid level warmth on the nams. Every time we have deep southerly midlevel flow, warmth will typically punch further north than first thought. 

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Honestly, this talk about how the models will always pull back from the big snow run that we seem to always get 72 hours out this year kind of agrees with something Ji said a storm or two ago:

"Which model run will be right? The one that gives us the least snow."

LOL. For all of Ji's problems, that was a word of wisdom there that has turned out to be quite correct lately.

 

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2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

@mappy  re: your post in the main on lack of coordination between weather service offices --- I guffawed at the image of 8 inches of snow piling up in Hanover then the state line and it drops off to one inch immediately.

I know. Its humorous when it happens. 

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27 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Also re: people's frustrations, @Bob Chill - there have been years (every so often) where systems actually improve within 36 hours up to gametime. People probably have residual memories of that. 

while this is 100% true, wx is subject choas and complicated forces. While there is some truth to seasonal trends, it's always best to drop all bias and look at each event in a vacuum before pulling on old memories. Bias is the deathknell for forecasters, stock traders, and any other field that cannot be pinned down basically ever until it's happening. 

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

while this is 100% true, wx is subject choas and complicated forces. While there is some truth to seasonal trends, it's always best to drop all bias and look at each event in a vacuum before pulling on old memories. Bias is the deathknell for forecasters, stock traders, and any other field that cannot be pinned down basically ever until it's happening. 

I get it. But there are reasons why people might still have instinctual reactions looking for improvements up to game time. But maybe not so much in a Nina...even one with negative infinity sigma AO departures...

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