aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Mention has been made of our last chance in the other thread. Guess our epic stretch is t gonna be all that epic Fred reads way too much twitter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: i really hope people actually take this to heart. but not expecting them to do that. Me neither. I even try real life analogies with setups to add reason. If this were say April, and we had a stalled front draped the same way dividing warm/cold air with ripples running along it for 2-3 days, what would it be like? NWS would call for mostly cloudy and cool with occasional rain. Some areas will celebrate how the rain missed them and they still had their bbq "cuz they got lucky!". Other areas will be complaining about the swamp in their backyard and why it has a rain bullseye on it. The next 3 days are identical but with opposite reactions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We having fun yet? It's comical man. First slug didnt get consenus until 7 hours ago and it broke mostly the right way. Instead of celebrating that, seems the focus is on the second piece that is still 36-48 hours away. I can't participate in a mental health clinic. I try to present very sound reasons why strapping into the emotional roller coaster too early is dumb but not one person who actually needs the advice listens. There is a lot of irony on this forum. It becomes 5x more apparent after an extended break. Just now, Bob Chill said: I'll drop this here. Hopefully people read it. Neary EVERY single event here that produces will have a suite or several suites of models early in the short range that are overdone. Often waaaaay overdone. Expect it. Understand it. Respect it. But whatever you do dont hug it. EVER. Anyone? Hello? [Crickets] Thank you, thank you, thank you! Everyone sees the occasional crazy snow map that gives us a foot or more and clings to that. Then it comes back to more reality for the given synoptic setup and there's a freak out. Nice to see and laugh about excessive amounts that get urped up now and then, but otherwise, come on folks! That said, sure it's disappointing to see things sort of "dry up" more. But this event (or events, 2 waves?) was never going to be an area-wide big time producer of snow. I had my mind kind of hoping for 3-5" or 3-6" on the more upper end; probably won't reach that where I am now, but even 2-4" is nice at this point. Given that barely a week ago this looked like ice to rain, I'd have to call a decent advisory-level snowfall a win. And it won't be like this past Sunday where it all melted 2 hours later (at least where I'm at...but looked pretty while it was snowing!). Fact is, tonight and tomorrow look wintry. That's mostly my take-away here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 It happens every storm though. people didn't change then, and they won't change now. its a moderating nightmare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: It happens every storm though. people didn't change then, and they won't change now. its a moderating nightmare. Sounds like Dante's Inferno for moderators... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Me neither. I even try real life analogies with setups to add reason. If this were say April, and we had a stalled front draped the same way dividing warm/cold air with ripples running along it for 2-3 days, what would it be like? NWS would call for mostly cloudy and cool with occasional rain. Some areas will celebrate how the rain missed them and they still had their bbq "cuz they got lucky!". Other areas will be complaining about the swamp in their backyard and why it has a rain bullseye on it. The next 3 days are identical but with opposite reactions. Stop being so rational. That ends as soon as you click into the Mid Atlantic forum...its sort of like Vegas where once you step off the plane, you're in an alternate world. Just like here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Stop being so rational. That ends as soon as you click into the Mid Atlantic forum...its sort of like Vegas where once you step off the plane, you're in an alternate world. Just like here. I know. I'm a minority type of thinker here. I really shouldnt complain or expect things to fit "my mold". The only downside is I often cant participate in disussion because it becomes very unfun. I dont waste free time doing unfun things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: First slug didnt get consenus until 7 hours ago and it broke mostly the right way. I understand why people are and should be happy if you are in the northern area of the map but for people near me in Reston it trended to a mix event which is all ready bad and then the second wave looks bad too. If you are still all snow for wave one then you are fine but otherwise I can understand the upset mood. Personally I am a little upset because this always happens but it could change and even if it does not 2-4 still is a decent storm and flakes outside is always appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I don’t think the issue is people hugging double digit output from one model run. This will likely be the third time in a row where inside the beltway this is nothing more than a slushy inch on grass. Meanwhile areas not that far away are scoring big time. It’s frustrating. 2 weeks ago it was track that caused us to warm and get a ton of rain while a historic blizzard is raging up 95. Then we have nice rates with a good track but temps are torched and it falls mid day. This was supposed to be simple- good airmass, simple overrunning, no transfers, and at night. But once again, temps suck, and QPF might suck. Can’t buy a simple event. 2-4 with temps below freezing used to be relatively simple. Now it takes an act of god inside the beltway. And meanwhile the rest of the megalopolis is at climo or well above. We will see how this plays out, not over yet, but I’ve seen this plot line before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 6:55 AM, leesburg 04 said: I nailed my calls on the last two storms for both locations. I wanted to wait until 12z to make the call today but I've seen what I need to. Leesburg - 4-6" Sykesville 3-5" Subject to change but not really because I don't do that. Good luck all once I set my bar I just relax and don't stress the waffles up or down. I may have to flip these totals for my call....but I'm locked in so this stands!! Going down in flames or floating on a soft fluffy snow pile....I don't care what Bob says I should do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 If you think you’re not getting snow, you probably aren’t. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Sounds like Dante's Inferno for moderators... what level are we in? Greed? Anger? Greed may be more fitting, punish everyone with an icy rain while being watched by a 3-headed dog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Sounds like Dante's Inferno for moderators... It wears on you. it really does. Then you get accused of bias and all other stuff. All we are trying to do is foster a place where good thoughts and input are made so everyone can learn and discuss. Problem is that some don't care to do whats asked and they chat away and some get far too emotional about shit they can't control. Then we have to come mop it up and because some wear their emotions on their sleeves they take it personally. It happens every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, wxtrix said: last night i noted that models don’t make forecasts and people personally attacked me for posting a fact. I saw that, and it was pretty ugly. Sorry that all happened. On your point about forecasts, I'll generally agree at least in part. Models do in a way make "forecasts", as in the complex mathematical equations to estimate the physics and thermodynamics, etc., are designed to project the atmospheric state for X number of hours into the future. But they are obviously limited by the approximations that must be made for a complicated and chaotic environment, so have their errors, biases, etc. And there's a certain amount of post-processing done to get the various outputs we see now, based on whatever algorithms are programmed to do so. Parameters that the models don't actually compute themselves, but are done after to make things more "human readable" so to speak (e.g., 2-m temperature, precip type, snow maps). I guess what I'm saying is that yes, models are actually more "guidance" than a "forecast", and it's up to scientists/meteorologists to interpret that with their own expertise and knowledge of those models to make an actual forecast. Not saying this all to be snarky in any way...but it's an interesting philosophical discussion if that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If you think you’re not getting snow, you probably aren’t. I never think I'm getting snow. And you know what? I'm usually right!! Or at least as much as I want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, ovechkin said: I don’t think the issue is people hugging double digit output from one model run. Trust me when I say that if those overdone monster mid range runs didnt happen, people would be thrilled to still be in the game right now. 100% positive. I've been here a long time man. There's not a single weenie posting in the storm thread not hiding behind their desk chair clicking thru model runs willing to sacrifice their wife and kids for purples and pinks to come back. My initial thoughts here was max potential of 6-10". And that's still very possible but high end for sure. 12"+ is an historic snowfall around here. A draped front setup without any real low pressure is not a 1' snowstorm setup like 99% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 51 minutes ago, GATECH said: Yea us. Maybe we can claim the snow anus title from Charm City! you do NOT want that crown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: It wears on you. it really does. Then you get accused of bias and all other stuff. All we are trying to do is foster a place where good thoughts and input are made so everyone can learn and discuss. Problem is that some don't care to do whats asked and they chat away and some get far too emotional about shit they can't control. Then we have to come mop it up and because some wear their emotions on their sleeves they take it personally. It happens every year. Oh, I know what you mean! Same as it is every year. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure to some extent we all get disappointed or deflated if snow chances or amounts slip through our fingers and go downhill. But it's no fun to read through pages and pages of complaints and debbie downers. I admit at times to feeling frustrated, sure...but I try not to litter this place with useless whining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: you do NOT want that crown LOL, I don’t think we have a choice at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Oh, I know what you mean! Same as it is every year. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure to some extent we all get disappointed or deflated if snow chances or amounts slip through our fingers and go downhill. But it's no fun to read through pages and pages of complaints and debbie downers. I admit at times to feeling frustrated, sure...but I try not to litter this place with useless whining. I didn't even want to be here Sunday. the thread was a disaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, wxtrix said: thanks. after 16 years here, i’m used to it, lol. i wrote this last night, too: Yeah, I think I ran across that comment you made at some point looking through this thread. Very good point that some of these maps kill intelligent discussion. They can be eye candy and fun to look at, but beyond that, gotta keep it real so to speak. But to say "The ECMWF took away 22" of my snow!!" is just plain aggravating to read again, and again, and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, mappy said: I didn't even want to be here Sunday. the thread was a disaster. I looked outside and also walked around taking some photos while it was still pretty out. Biggest concern I had was that my camera might get wet (fortunately has some element of weather sealing)!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAMs are sleety here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 24 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I understand why people are and should be happy if you are in the northern area of the map but for people near me in Reston it trended to a mix event which is all ready bad and then the second wave looks bad too. If you are still all snow for wave one then you are fine but otherwise I can understand the upset mood. Personally I am a little upset because this always happens but it could change and even if it does not 2-4 still is a decent storm and flakes outside is always appreciated. I have lived in Herndon for past 33 years. We are fine. Don't worry enjoy. It is going to snow. May not be waist deep but we will see 2-4" and more opportunity this weekend and next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: you do NOT want that crown 3 minutes ago, GATECH said: LOL, I don’t think we have a choice at this point. It is pure talent when you can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. This part of the region is like the Tom Brady of no snow. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, H2O said: It is pure talent when you can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. This part of the region is like the Tom Brady of no snow. It definitely gives one a DEFLATED feeling!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I like the juice over this way on the 3k NAM even though it might not be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We having fun yet? It's comical man. First slug didnt get consenus until 7 hours ago and it broke mostly the right way. Instead of celebrating that, seems the focus is on the second piece that is still 36-48 hours away. I can't participate in a mental health clinic. I try to present very sound reasons why strapping into the emotional roller coaster too early is dumb but not one person who actually needs the advice listens. There is a lot of irony on this forum. It becomes 5x more apparent after an extended break. You are good man! I appreciate the input! BTW - @Ji and I are in the dead zone! LOL! Amazing! You do a good job of posting strategically. But who posts is like a Machine Learning algorithm on whether something looks good or bad! What a crazy time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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