Steve25 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I feel my stress level rise everytime I check the models or these forums, especially being that I know before we know it, it'll be Spring so I'm grasping especially hard for something good. I'm going to try to show self-control and be like a normal person the next week. Only use my weather app, radar, and the reports I see on social media lol. No models or forum. I'll come back next Wednesday. Hopefully something will pop for ALL of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The NAM ... LOL. That is all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, mappy said: LWX with advisories is good yall. Usually they go warnings and they don't pan out and get downgraded, so maybe we can reverse psychology this system and get warning level snows while under advisories I know you are kidding, buuuuut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Reading the comments in the threads from overnight was... interesting. A clusterage of part mass psychosis and mass hysteria. Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 36 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: My location for wave 1 TBD after 12z runs today....I'm thinking North at the moment. Everything is moving that way. I am leaning towards S PA jack, altho the usual places in N MD will also do well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, T. August said: I know you are kidding, buuuuut who said I was kidding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Things I learned this winter: Never expect good snows other than the occasional 3-4 inch storm or less, in a La Nina, no matter how good the pattern may look up top, in the Delmarva 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Things I learned this winter: Never expect good snows other than the occasional 3-4 inch storm or less, in a La Nina, no matter how good the pattern may look up top, in the Delmarva We always suck lol. Definitely do better with the bigger events in a Nino with a juiced up stj. Ninas find more ways of screwing the MA in general, although much less so a in blocking regime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 At what point in each of our events this year have they all started to model worse. Think about it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 LWX going 1-3” here looks good. Between sleet, surface temps at start, and not ideal dendrite growth, I don’t see us getting more than that here. Hopefully it looks pretty outside...thats my bar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Amazing how no matter how south a storm is they always find a way to hit the same ole lame places where no one lives. I'm starting to think DC snow climo is dead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: We always suck lol. Definitely do better with the bigger events in a Nino with a juiced up stj. Ninas find more ways of screwing the MA in general, although much less so a in blocking regime. But when we finally do get a Nino the atmosphere acts like a Nina. Oh well. At least in fort lauderdale i won't need to worry anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: LWX going 1-3” here looks good. Between sleet, surface temps at start, and not ideal dendrite growth, I don’t see us getting more than here. Hopefully it looks pretty outside...thats my bar. 1-3 seems reasonable. Recent runs are juicing up the initial wave some, but that seems to coincide with a more northward axis of better qpf. 12z will probably tell the rest of that story. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: 1-3 seems reasonable. Recent runs are juicing up the initial wave some, but that seems to coincide with a more northward axis of better qpf. 12z will probably tell the rest of that story. I think I can guess where the max snowfall ends up for Wave 1. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, H2O said: I hate using snow maps to eeyore a storm but if there was ever a perfect depiction of what will likely happen IMBY based on my luck this is it Yea us. Maybe we can claim the snow anus title from Charm City! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: I think I can guess where the max snowfall ends up for Wave 1. But we were told the late north trend doesn't happen in these types of setups. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: But we were told the late north trend doesn't happen in these types of setups. it's getting shady in here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 How do you know a storm is likely a dud? All the red taggers disappear! Bob goes back into hibernation. PSU may post when someone's reasoning is way off, but he becomes a lurker. Every weenie becomes a wishcaster and thinks they can will a storm in the right direction. And the mood is so low as the chase has died. Depressing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: How do you know a storm is likely a dud? All the red taggers disappear! Bob goes back into hibernation. PSU may post when someone's reasoning is way off, but he becomes a lurker. Every weenie becomes a wishcaster and thinks they can will a storm in the right direction. And the mood is so low as the chase has died. Depressing People who are likely to do well or better than others make lists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: How do you know a storm is likely a dud? All the red taggers disappear! Bob goes back into hibernation. PSU may post when someone's reasoning is way off, but he becomes a lurker. Every weenie becomes a wishcaster and thinks they can will a storm in the right direction. And the mood is so low as the chase has died. Depressing We having fun yet? It's comical man. First slug didnt get consenus until 7 hours ago and it broke mostly the right way. Instead of celebrating that, seems the focus is on the second piece that is still 36-48 hours away. I can't participate in a mental health clinic. I try to present very sound reasons why strapping into the emotional roller coaster too early is dumb but not one person who actually needs the advice listens. There is a lot of irony on this forum. It becomes 5x more apparent after an extended break. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: How do you know a storm is likely a dud? All the red taggers disappear! Bob goes back into hibernation. PSU may post when someone's reasoning is way off, but he becomes a lurker. Every weenie becomes a wishcaster and thinks they can will a storm in the right direction. And the mood is so low as the chase has died. Depressing Overall things look good for a general light to perhaps moderate event. Problem is there will probably be an area that will receive lighter qpf on the south side for wave 1, and could also miss wave 2 completely- and it might coincide with the same places that have been screwed recently. So yeah there is some angst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I'll drop this here. Hopefully people read it. Neary EVERY single event here that produces will have a suite or several suites of models early in the short range that are overdone. Often waaaaay overdone. Expect it. Understand it. Respect it. But whatever you do dont hug it. EVER. Anyone? Hello? [Crickets] 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I plan on telling everyone how much snow I got after the event is over. I've found over the years that is the most accurate way to determine snowfall amounts. I'm sticking with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'll drop this here. Hopefully people read it. Neary EVERY single event here that produces will have a suite or several suites of models early in the short range that are overdone. Often waaaaay overdone. Expect it. Understand it. Respect it. But whatever you do dont hug it. EVER. Anyone? Hello? [Crickets] i really hope people actually take this to heart. but not expecting them to do that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'll drop this here. Hopefully people read it. Neary EVERY single event here that produces will have a suite or several suites of models early in the short range that are overdone. Often waaaaay overdone. Expect it. Understand it. Respect it. But whatever you do dont hug it. EVER. Anyone? Hello? [Crickets] Especially any model from Canada. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Mention has been made of our last chance in the other thread. Guess our epic stretch is t gonna be all that epic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Meltdowns in the Storm thread has begun. Deb downers drowning in a glass half empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Mention has been made of our last chance in the other thread. Guess our epic stretch is t gonna be all that epic Fred reads way too much twitter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: i really hope people actually take this to heart. but not expecting them to do that. Me neither. I even try real life analogies with setups to add reason. If this were say April, and we had a stalled front draped the same way dividing warm/cold air with ripples running along it for 2-3 days, what would it be like? NWS would call for mostly cloudy and cool with occasional rain. Some areas will celebrate how the rain missed them and they still had their bbq "cuz they got lucky!". Other areas will be complaining about the swamp in their backyard and why it has a rain bullseye on it. The next 3 days are identical but with opposite reactions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We having fun yet? It's comical man. First slug didnt get consenus until 7 hours ago and it broke mostly the right way. Instead of celebrating that, seems the focus is on the second piece that is still 36-48 hours away. I can't participate in a mental health clinic. I try to present very sound reasons why strapping into the emotional roller coaster too early is dumb but not one person who actually needs the advice listens. There is a lot of irony on this forum. It becomes 5x more apparent after an extended break. Just now, Bob Chill said: I'll drop this here. Hopefully people read it. Neary EVERY single event here that produces will have a suite or several suites of models early in the short range that are overdone. Often waaaaay overdone. Expect it. Understand it. Respect it. But whatever you do dont hug it. EVER. Anyone? Hello? [Crickets] Thank you, thank you, thank you! Everyone sees the occasional crazy snow map that gives us a foot or more and clings to that. Then it comes back to more reality for the given synoptic setup and there's a freak out. Nice to see and laugh about excessive amounts that get urped up now and then, but otherwise, come on folks! That said, sure it's disappointing to see things sort of "dry up" more. But this event (or events, 2 waves?) was never going to be an area-wide big time producer of snow. I had my mind kind of hoping for 3-5" or 3-6" on the more upper end; probably won't reach that where I am now, but even 2-4" is nice at this point. Given that barely a week ago this looked like ice to rain, I'd have to call a decent advisory-level snowfall a win. And it won't be like this past Sunday where it all melted 2 hours later (at least where I'm at...but looked pretty while it was snowing!). Fact is, tonight and tomorrow look wintry. That's mostly my take-away here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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