February Banter 2021

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You can drive over any time you want.  Now what mofo.

Fine.  i'll get it there before the end of the month.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, H2O said:

Wind whipped gets it foamy and chucks break off splattering everywhere.

H20RR is straight fire today. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

  

 

I couldn't resist... 

LOL all good. I had a good laugh, and I hope I was polite enough. 

[JakkelWx]

5 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Yeah looks like I’ll be disappointed once again. I still haven’t even seen moderate snow for more than ten minutes this winter. 

Well that sucks. Just move over here to the eastern shore. We usually have better luck when it comes to snow. Ain't that right @CAPE

[vastateofmind]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Let's not leave out all the Coney Island Whitefish swimming around the docks. Not sure what species that is? Try google and don't blame me for anything. Your keyboard, your decisions. 

Glad I didn't Google that on the work lappy....

[stormtracker]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Let's not leave out all the Coney Island Whitefish swimming around the docks. Not sure what species that is? Try google and don't blame me for anything. Your keyboard, your decisions. 

Like a dummy, I googled it.  

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Glad I didn't Google that on the work lappy....

at least the answer shows up on search results without clicking. Don't want to leave a jpg "artifact" on the hard drive tho. heh. 

[H2O]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Like a dummy, I googled it.  

[Mrs.J]

Making a big ass dutch oven pot of Vegetable soup. After getting what I would call a good phone call from my Dr. yesterday. Still don't know what is going on with me but all the stuff they tested for came back fine. So even though I do not believe that I have a food allergy, I have had such a good response from my body physically and mentally that I am planning on keeping dairy and bread items out or at least on the very low consumption.

My skin still feels like it is on fire with ants crawling on it and I am still getting hives but the more I look into it and the fact that I am on medication to remove Estrogen to keep cancer away, it is looking more and more like I have hit that magical time in life where my body says F-you dumps all the hormones and and throws the book at you. So I hope to be showing more clean eating meals as I am diving into the Mediterranean diet.  

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

I wish I was that close to climo... BWI region has had it much worse than NoVA this year, so... perspective.  I think BWI climo is 18" and we've seen around 7-8". Not sure what their official tally is at this point.

I average about 20" and have had 7" so far this year, so it's not been a uniform good year across all of NoVA.

[caviman2201]

Not sure if anyone else noticed this, but PivotalWeather has added soundings for both the CMC and Euro (as well as all the others) if you pay the $7 month.  Pretty good deal. I haven't seen Euro soundings anywhere else.

[Deer Whisperer]

Just now, mattie g said:

I average about 20" and have had 7" so far this year, so it's not been a uniform good year across all of NoVA.

Likewise. Mine is closer to 18" and I'm currently just under 7". I guess it's been good out in Loudon?

[BristowWx]

Funny how inside nova site posted the 14inch probability map.   Anything worth reporting is worth hyping...I guess the minimum prob map doesn’t read well

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Some of the frustration/pessimism from many in this forum is that despite a great pattern, multiple threats, and multiple WSWs, many of us are in that boat. Here in Towson, which usually does pretty well in the snow department (for Central MD, at least), our best event was 4 droopy inches over 3 days...and we just went from a 4-7-inch WSW to a slushy half inch of nothing. Favored spots N and W always do better - and that's to be expected - but the dichotomy is starker than usual, and some suburban locations that usually do respectably have been underperforming so far - and that's after several years of almost nothing. We need a forum-wide overperformer for morale, if nothing else, so seeing the first signs of concern for this already unusual event is simply going to evoke that "here we go again" feeling for a lotttt of folks.

 

5 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

I wish I was that close to climo... BWI region has had it much worse than NoVA this year, so... perspective.  I think BWI climo is 18" and we've seen around 7-8". Not sure what their official tally is at this point.

Moving this here not to clutter the storm thread.  

Yes...to both of you.  The whole 95 urban corridor has been awful and Baltimore has been literally the rip off zone for the last 5 years of the whole larger rip off zone.  You have missed storms just north, south, east, and west and somehow avoided even one single flush hit since January 2016.  It's been amazing frankly.  But like I told Baltimorewx a couple days ago...while I do think bad luck is certainly a portion of this...and that will eventually turn around and you will get a flush hit sooner or later...I do think a significant portion of this is indicative of a larger problem that wont go away. 

 

There have been numerous events over the last 5 years that I am 100% certain would have been a nice snow event for Baltimore if this was 30 years ago.  The other day was a great example.  I kind of compared that to the one warning event we had in 1997.  Very similar in terms of track, intensity, antecedent airmass, qpf, and time of year.   Only that wave ended up just cold enough and was a 32 degree 6" snowstorm in Baltimore.  This time with almost the same situation and qpf it was a 35 degree mostly white rain event.  So...what's changed in that time???  There was another good example that comes to my mind in February 2016 with a perfect track system and upper low but it produced mostly white rain in Baltimore.  Both those events I got 7" and 8" up here...but BARELY.  Even at 1000 ft up here I was 33-34 degrees during both of those snow events.  Places with some elevation NW of 95 have been able to hang on and overcome the climo changes so far with these marginal events...but I think the difference between up here and Baltimore is becoming even greater recently.   

 

Looking at past records...when I would get a 30-40" winter up here Baltimore was typically around 20".  But the last few times I had a winter like that Baltimore was in the single digits!!!  Recently the only time Baltimore has a good winter is when I get like 75"+ up here.  The disparity is growing as places with elevation have been able to barely hold on to snow and even hit some bigger events due to the increased occurrence of big precip events...these crazy 20" plus storms are becoming a multiple time a winter type normal occurrence lately (even if they don't all affect our area).   But along 95 so many of the snowstorms that propped up your avg and filled in the gaps between those rare big storms were 3-6 and 4-8" type events that were VERY marginal temp wise and those are becoming increasingly mix/rain events now.  Even up here I am not sure how much longer I am going to hold on to those types events.  1-2 more degrees and a lot of those don't even end up well up here.  I can think of numerous 5" plus events up here in the last 10 years where the temps were above freezing during heavy snow.  If I am 33 degrees during 2" an hour rates with a perfect track coastal in mid winter....that is REALLY bad for 95! 

[Wetbulbs88]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Moving this here not to clutter the storm thread.  

Yes...to both of you.  The whole 95 urban corridor has been awful and Baltimore has been literally the rip off zone for the last 5 years of the whole larger rip off zone.  You have missed storms just north, south, east, and west and somehow avoided even one single flush hit since January 2016.  It's been amazing frankly.  But like I told Baltimorewx a couple days ago...while I do think bad luck is certainly a portion of this...and that will eventually turn around and you will get a flush hit sooner or later...I do think a significant portion of this is indicative of a larger problem that wont go away. 

 

There have been numerous events over the last 5 years that I am 100% certain would have been a nice snow event for Baltimore if this was 30 years ago.  The other day was a great example.  I kind of compared that to the one warning event we had in 1997.  Very similar in terms of track, intensity, antecedent airmass, qpf, and time of year.   Only that wave ended up just cold enough and was a 32 degree 6" snowstorm in Baltimore.  This time with almost the same situation and qpf it was a 35 degree mostly white rain event.  So...what's changed in that time???  There was another good example that comes to my mind in February 2016 with a perfect track system and upper low but it produced mostly white rain in Baltimore.  Both those events I got 7" and 8" up here...but BARELY.  Even at 1000 ft up here I was 33-34 degrees during both of those snow events.  Places with some elevation NW of 95 have been able to hang on and overcome the climo changes so far with these marginal events...but I think the difference between up here and Baltimore is becoming even greater recently.   

 

Looking at past records...when I would get a 30-40" winter up here Baltimore was typically around 20".  But the last few times I had a winter like that Baltimore was in the single digits!!!  Recently the only time Baltimore has a good winter is when I get like 75"+ up here.  The disparity is growing as places with elevation have been able to barely hold on to snow and even hit some bigger events due to the increased occurrence of big precip events...these crazy 20" plus storms are becoming a multiple time a winter type normal occurrence lately (even if they don't all affect our area).   But along 95 so many of the snowstorms that propped up your avg and filled in the gaps between those rare big storms were 3-6 and 4-8" type events that were VERY marginal temp wise and those are becoming increasingly mix/rain events now.  Even up here I am not sure how much longer I am going to hold on to those types events.  1-2 more degrees and a lot of those don't even end up well up here.  I can think of numerous 5" plus events up here in the last 10 years where the temps were above freezing during heavy snow.  If I am 33 degrees during 2" an hour rates with a perfect track coastal in mid winter....that is REALLY bad for 95! 

Interesting. I always thought that warming wasn’t uniform though. That Individual dynamics at play still dominate the surface. I guess at some point it has to matter, but if storms keep getting stronger couldn’t dynamics get stronger too? For example, I thought 2009-2010 could be attributed. 

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Interesting. I always thought that warming wasn’t uniform though. That Individual dynamics at play still dominate the surface. I guess at some point it has to matter, but if storms keep getting stronger couldn’t dynamics get stronger too? For example, I thought 2009-2010 could be attributed. 

local micro climates will always affect things.  but if the overall base state is warmer from UHI or other larger scale factors then that worked 20-30 years ago isn't as good anymore.  Thats why I argue that classic storms don't always work out like they used to.  We need more to break in our favor for a larger part of the area.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Interesting. I always thought that warming wasn’t uniform though. That Individual dynamics at play still dominate the surface. I guess at some point it has to matter, but if storms keep getting stronger couldn’t dynamics get stronger too? For example, I thought 2009-2010 could be attributed. 

There is some support in the data that for DC and Baltimore the odds and frequency of BIG snowstorms is increasing but the frequency of just snow in general is declining.  That makes perfect sense actually.  More big storms increases the odds we catch some of them by chance.  But a little bit of warming is going to hurt us more often with a lot of the typical marginal snow events that were common in DC and Baltimore.  When I did my every warning event at BWI case study a few years ago...when it came to the 5-10" type events it was a VAST majority that were near 32 degrees and featured some mixing.  This kind of a data tagline was VERY common.... a 6" storm from 1.1 qpf with a high that day of 35 and a low of 31.  I mean...you can figure out from that what kind of storm that was...and what happens if you add say 2 degrees to that exact event?  

[diatae]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

You can't get that kind of content anywhere else.  

I know where my dock is buttered. *chef's kiss*

[mappy]

key lime pie greek yogurt with graham and vanilla crumbles, is amazing. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

local micro climates will always affect things.  but if the overall base state is warmer from UHI or other larger scale factors then that worked 20-30 years ago isn't as good anymore.  Thats why I argue that classic storms don't always work out like they used to.  We need more to break in our favor for a larger part of the area.

EXACTLY

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, diatae said:

I know where my dock is buttered. *chef's kiss*

If you go to Coney Island, avoid the Whitefish. 

[Mrs.J]

11 minutes ago, mappy said:

key lime pie greek yogurt with graham and vanilla crumbles, is amazing. 

OMG Love Key Lime pie!!!

[mappy]

Just now, Mrs.J said:

OMG Love Key Lime pie!!!

YESSSSSS. 

[snowfan]

Banana cream pie is far superior to key lime pie. Don’t @ me. 

[mappy]

i wont @ you and thats gross. 

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's about 5.5 qpf for our area....

didn't know March '58 stepped through the door on the Ukie 

[H2O]

saying banana cream pie is the best is asking for violence

[nw baltimore wx]

I can't get from Coney Island Whitefish to key lime pie no matter how hard I try.  I think I'll just skip eating today.

[H2O]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

I can't get from Coney Island Whitefish to key lime pie no matter how hard I try.  I think I'll just skip eating today.

Then I'll spare you the video I saw yesterday of some person doing something terrible with food that you make nachos from

[vastateofmind]

20 minutes ago, mappy said:

key lime pie greek yogurt with graham and vanilla crumbles, is amazing. 

My wife has been buying a new-to-us brand of Greek yogurt called Siggi's -- key lime is damn good, as well as their vanilla/cinnamon mixed berry flavors. It's pretty thick, though.