February Banter 2021

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, chris21 said:

In my experience, the feb 10th sunlight factor under overcast conditions with Igor snow and temps around 28, would not inhibit accumulation even on paved surfaces. That’s just been my experience.

This.  It’s mid February, not March.  It’s not even sun angle season yet. 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

U asked so I answered.  

I agree though snow is ultimately snow and fun matter the amount .

oh i know. i just dont care what the models do in the end. 

[chris21]

Just now, nj2va said:

Looks like we’re just talking ourselves into a non-event between model runs.

Apparently, when model consensus is greater than 6 inches at DCA 36 hours out, we have that luxury.

[aldie 22]

Just now, stormtracker said:

The panic and wailing here is just off the charts each model cycle.  “Oh i give up”. Then with the next runs trending better “this could be the second coming of PD 2!!

I'm convinced most here don't like snow or at the very least are never satisfied with what the models show. We clearly have the big dog hunters and they shall remain nameless but then there are those who simply can't accept a 2-3" snowfall if a model showed more than that days prior. All I know is people can talk trend this or trend that the only thing that is real is what the model says on its current run then the next then the next until game time. Sure you can get a range idea from the model runs but ultimately what it says right now is only for right now. On to the next model run!!

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, stormtracker said:

This.  It’s mid February, not March.  It’s not even sun angle season yet. 

Well to be fair, in about 10 days the sun angle goes above 40. That’s 13 degrees higher than in December. That matters. At first it matters more in hard surfaces. As we go on, it matters everywhere. Temps in the 20’s does offset that some, but when you have snow and are 30 or up you see a huge difference.

Problem won’t be evident with this storm though. If we have an issue this time it’s gonna be light precip.

[H2O]

[snowfan]

So many of you need to take the misery to a separate thread. Every single event all you do is complain. You don't live in some snow mecca, so suck it up and stop ruining threads.

[JakkelWx]

Just now, snowfan said:

So many of you need to take the misery to a separate thread. Every single event all you do is complain. You don't live in some snow mecca, so suck it up and stop ruining threads.

Panic room.

[T. August]

@Baltimorewx @North Balti Zen we are getting screwed again what are your thoughts? I’m thinking 1-2” with all of the good precip SW of us.

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm convinced most here don't like snow or at the very least are never satisfied with what the models show. We clearly have the big dog hunters and they shall remain nameless but then there are those who simply can't accept a 2-3" snowfall if a model showed more than that days prior. All I know is people can talk trend this or trend that the only thing that is real is what the model says on its current run then the next then the next until game time. Sure you can get a range idea from the model runs but ultimately what it says right now is only for right now. On to the next model run!!

I just like seeing things trend better. If I started at 3 days out modeled with 0.1” of precip and then by game time it had trended to 0.25”, I’d be excited over that. Everyone is different and that’s ok. I am just tired of the drier trend every single time.

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

So many of you need to take the misery to a separate thread. Every single event all you do is complain. You don't live in some snow mecca, so suck it up and stop ruining threads.

If 12z isn't 2 ft for some I suspect that I may log off until the evening runs.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I just like seeing things trend better. If I started at 3 days out modeled with 0.1” of precip and then by game time it had trended to 0.25”, I’d be excited over that. Everyone is different and that’s ok. I am just tired of the drier trend every single time.

Understandable.

Hopefully Euro is just setting the southern edge of the possible solutions now and everything doesn't tick tick tick away from us up until game time.  My hunch is it doesn't get too much further south but who knows. 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Looks like we’re just talking ourselves into a non-event between model runs.

Agree, It would be best to only post the silly snow maps and say yayy for mby!!!!

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Agree, It would be best to only post the silly snow maps and say yayy for mby!!!!

Wait, so 0.6” QPF won’t give me 14” east of the fall line?

[chris21]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

If 12z isn't 2 ft for some I suspect that I may log off until the evening runs.

I’m doing the same... honestly.... I live in NW DC and even though I haven’t maxed out on every event so far this year, I’ve enjoyed each one and am looking forward to this weeks event, even if it isn’t 18 inches with drifts to 5 feet and temps crashing to zero.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, chris21 said:

I’m doing the same... honestly.... I live in NW DC and even though I haven’t maxed out on every event so far this year, I’ve enjoyed each one and am looking forward to this weeks event, even if it isn’t 18 inches with drifts to 5 feet and temps crashing to zero.

My bar for this one is 3 inches and cold enough temps that it looks like winter and there aren’t giant puddles in between the snow on my driveway. 

[H2O]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I just like seeing things trend better. If I started at 3 days out modeled with 0.1” of precip and then by game time it had trended to 0.25”, I’d be excited over that. Everyone is different and that’s ok. I am just tired of the drier trend every single time.

To be fair, you have done well every storm.  Might not have maxed out for what was forecast but done better than some.  Your location makes up for losing qpf.  I think thats what makes it difficult to read those who freak out over every little shift.  So what you lose .25"?  If you still get 5" on less because its colder thanks to your location others will need that extra .25" because its harder to get 3" let alone 5"

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

 

[CAPE]

I just want to actually get snow from back to back events. Snow on snow. A total of 4-5" would be fantastic. I would probably take off Thursday and Friday and be out hiking like a mofo.

[mappy]

13 minutes ago, H2O said:

not all of us. but yes. this is pretty much spot on.

[dailylurker]

Yay.. boring pixie dust with sun shining through the clouds for 3 days. I'm almost ready to torch this horrid winter and start chasing spring. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I just want to actually get snow from back to back events. Snow on snow. A total of 4-5" would be fantastic. I would probably take off Thursday and Friday and be out hiking like a mofo.

hell yeah it would be fantastic. we've been in a snow drought for so long, no one should be complaining. 

[H2O]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

not all of us. but yes. this is pretty much spot on.

yes.  not all.  you and a couple others enjoy whatever falls and aren't always big dog chasing.

And my comments about how northern tier people end up with good amounts isn't a knock.  Its expected.  You all live in a better place for snow.  Its a fact.  Location matters and that just means you all can get by with less and STILL do very well.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

To be fair, you have done well every storm.  Might not have maxed out for what was forecast but done better than some.  Your location makes up for losing qpf.  I think thats what makes it difficult to read those who freak out over every little shift.  So what you lose .25"?  If you still get 5" on less because its colder thanks to your location others will need that extra .25" because its harder to get 3" let alone 5"

You are correct. And I’m not trying to be a deb. I’m just like a kid with snow and get more excited from a good trend than anything else.

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I just want to actually get snow from back to back events. Snow on snow. A total of 4-5" would be fantastic. I would probably take off Thursday and Friday and be out hiking like a mofo.

 

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

hell yeah it would be fantastic. we've been in a snow drought for so long, no one should be complaining. 

The storm from just a week ago that snowed off and on for 3 days was awesome.  Sure we all got differing amounts but when was the last time it snowed for days straight?  Given the snow drought the last two years its just nice to see it snow again.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Well good luck to all. I’ll settle for some really thick clouds and some snow. If it’s dark and gray outside I’ll be very happy.

[baltosquid]

The issue isn’t that people won’t accept a nice snow of 3 inches, it’s the psychology of that 3 inches always coming from a failed 6 inch storm rather than a  trace-1 inch storm that surprised. Obviously that 6 inch storm never existed and neither did that trace storm, it was 3 inches all along. But our window into the future includes visions of those trace and 6 inch storms.

Not gonna jump on the misery wagon myself, just trying to explain the frustration. Misery -> panic room

[North Balti Zen]

38 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I get why you’re pessimistic but hopefully the Arctic press is overemphasized on the euro and it will rebound a little. I think that’s more likely than it going further south.

I guess by “going south” in this case I am referring to the press of cold air pushing the best narrow band to our south. Until we stop getting the shaft in this area, I am gonna note well when guidance points to how we are getting the shaft this time. Since Sunday midday the models have consistently pushed the band of good snow south as they finally locked onto the cold press. Was in central PA, now, DC south. That TREND is hard to ignore. I don’t see any reason to say it will pop back north other than the hope we all carry for better outcomes for our area. This one looks like 48 hours of seeing good returns and reading joy from a lot of our area just to the south while we are frustrated here. The January 2018 or 19 frustration storm (whichever year Ellicott city got 11 inches and I got just under five and the best snow never could pierce 695 comes to mind). 
 

hope I am wrong, but 2-4 into dry air over 48 hours would kinda blow for my area. 

[mappy]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not complaining, this probably just isn’t my storm and that 100% ok. But a lot of the oro factors won’t help us here. There isn’t a strong surface low so not much of a easterly fetch to help with upslope. And dry air is eating in. This is similar to those waves in March 2014 and the one in 2015 and somewhat similar to the first part of the Chill 2019 storm where DC and VA did much better then up here. 

lol stop lying. you care that the best will be to your south. 

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

The issue isn’t that people won’t accept a nice snow of 3 inches, it’s the psychology of that 3 inches always coming from a failed 6 inch storm rather than a  trace-1 inch storm that surprised. Obviously that 6 inch storm never existed and neither did that trace storm, it was 3 inches all along. But our window into the future includes visions of those trace and 6 inch storms.

Not gonna jump on the misery wagon myself, just trying to explain the frustration. Misery -> panic room

Exactly. Where I live it's just been fail after fail after fail after  fail for years. Now all I see is more fail after fail after fail.