H2O Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 on point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’m going to weenie the boundary a little north and say 5-7” by noon Friday along the I70 corridor. Good time to kanoodle in the Ville. I like both of your calls was thinking something similiar. 3 to 6 along the M/D line 5 to 10 along the normal Howard/Carroll/ Montgomery county deathband. 3 to 6 for DC metro. .1 for DCA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1-3'' for me and CAPE, anything more is gravy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 flash flood watches for me 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 27 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I like both of your calls was thinking something similiar. 3 to 6 along the M/D line 5 to 10 along the normal Howard/Carroll/ Montgomery county deathband. 3 to 6 for DC metro. .1 for DCA. I don’t have the exact amounts for the 6z gfs run, though they are a bit lower, but the 0z gfs has around .90” of precip for the event with two separate periods of 3-4” each. A tick north of the boundary come game time would be nice, but ratios should be good either way. eta that this is if for BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: I don’t have the exact amounts for the 6z gfs run, though they are a bit lower, but the 12z gfs has around .90” of precip for the event with two separate periods of 3-4” each. A tick north of the boundary come game time would be nice, but ratios should be good either way. And the Euro needs to stop bleeding south . I'm down to under .40 on the Euro for the 36 hour time frame lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 My money is on we get high clouds for this "epic period". It's just been that kinda winter. I'm fully expecting a rug pull and a congrats VA beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: And the Euro needs to stop bleeding south . I'm down to under .40 on the Euro for the 36 hour time frame lol. What fun would there be in the gfs and the euro agreeing 36 hours before an event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Proposal: people take pics of their snow measurements. With a ruler. People will post pics of their dogs, back yard, decks, sunset, beer, food and just about anything else you can think of, but how many snow measurement pics do you see? I did for years but haven’t lately basically because it hasn’t snowed much. I plan to post with every measurement from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: I've never been one to care about getting the highest totals for any storm, not my style....I just want to be invited to the party to hold up a wall and look at everyone else having fun. Maybe this is the one that gets DC and the Southern burbs more in line with the rest of the region. I mean what really is the big deal between 4" and 6"? I’m sure @ravensrule just jack knifed out of a sound sleep and isn’t sure why yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, H2O said: flash flood watches for me be aggressive be be aggressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Light snow will have a hard time accumulating in mid-febuary daylight. This event just doesn't excite me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Hate to say it, but Ji is right. Never does a storm trend in our favor. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Seen snow fall more than 3 times this winter, shoveled it once. After a couple of times you lose interest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Light snow will have a hard time accumulating in mid-febuary daylight. This event just doesn't excite me. *February Also, you do realize that the first wave starts overnight tomorrow, right? At least you made this post in the banter thread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I don’t have the exact amounts for the 6z gfs run, though they are a bit lower, but the 12z gfs has around .90” of precip for the event with two separate periods of 3-4” each. A tick north of the boundary come game time would be nice, but ratios should be good either way. eta that this is if for BWI Current call for our area: Looks too south to me (guidance). Best snows stay south, we deal with lack of rates, poor snow growth, and dry air. 2-4 and on to the next storm of finally trying not to get hosed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Hate to say it, but Ji is right. Never does a storm trend in our favor. Just a few days ago wasn’t the consensus that we might get an ice storm for this event? I think this has trended well for the area. Maybe too well though! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Ticks south, drier, so I’m not feeling this one. I’m going for 3.5 my back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Current call for our area: Looks too south to me (guidance). Best snows stay south, we deal with lack of rates, poor snow growth, and dry air. 2-4 and on to the next storm of finally trying not to get hosed. I get why you’re pessimistic but hopefully the Arctic press is overemphasized on the euro and it will rebound a little. I think that’s more likely than it going further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Don't forget Sunday was a total whiff at 84 out and trended to advisory snows and some warning snows . I still like Baltimore's chances for WSW snows. Even here I think will juice up a bit imo when dont you think it will juice up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Don't forget Sunday was a total whiff at 84 -96 out and trended to advisory snows and some warning snows . I still like Baltimore's chances for WSW snows. Even here I think will juice up a bit imo I mean honestly 12z runs tomorrow could look quite different than what this mornings looked like....good or bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, mappy said: *February Also, you do realize that the first wave starts overnight tomorrow, right? At least you made this post in the banter thread Yes, it starts overnight. And by daylight there might be an inch on the ground. If rates really are as light as this appears trending (.5" over 36 - 48 hours), thats going to be a problem. Temps are upper 20s for most, not upper teens. Light rates will allow sufficient IR to heat that ground. This is mid FEBRUARY, not January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Yes, it starts overnight. And by daylight there might be an inch on the ground. If rates really are as light as this appears trending (.5" over 36 - 48 hours), thats going to be a problem. Temps are upper 20s for most, not upper teens. Light rates will allow sufficient IR to heat that ground. This is mid FEBRUARY, not January. In my experience, the feb 10th sunlight factor under overcast conditions with Igor snow and temps around 28, would not inhibit accumulation even on paved surfaces. That’s just been my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Yes, it starts overnight. And by daylight there might be an inch on the ground. If rates really are as light as this appears trending (.5" over 36 - 48 hours), thats going to be a problem. Temps are upper 20s for most, not upper teens. Light rates will allow sufficient IR to heat that ground. This is mid FEBRUARY, not January. lol okay. keep your posts here Just now, losetoa6 said: lol Usually only when our yards are on the southern fringe . Or a strong pv lobe is pressing . Neither the case here but who knows But anytime we r on the northern fringes majority time qpf increases near game time . i dont care. snow is snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I don’t have the exact amounts for the 6z gfs run, though they are a bit lower, but the 0z gfs has around .90” of precip for the event with two separate periods of 3-4” each. A tick north of the boundary come game time would be nice, but ratios should be good either way. eta that this is if for BWI The 6z gfs is just under .80”, so yes, drier, but like wxusaf said in the main thread, 20-30 miles would make difference. I’ll be curious to see whether the 12z holds or continues the slip south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I mean honestly 12z runs tomorrow could look quite different than what this mornings looked like....good or bad The panic and wailing here is just off the charts each model cycle. “Oh i give up”. Then with the next runs trending better “this could be the second coming of PD 2!! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Looks like we’re just talking ourselves into a non-event between model runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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