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February Banter 2021


George BM
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5 minutes ago, DanTheMan said:

It would be kind of funny if after two weeks of intense tracking with marginal payoff (for some of us) we kind of just cruised into a major event 

February is our snowiest month, none of this is surprising. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

would think it sucks more for everyone else having to read my posts in the wrong threads 

If the Euro is right it is essentially a continuous 4 day deal capped off by an ice storm. Could just modify the date part of the storm thread and make it 10-14.

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So the breakdown of the next 8 days.

Wave 1 wednesday p.m. until thursday midday. Then intermittently light stuff.

Wave 2 or continuation of wave 1 however you prefer overnight Thursday into Friday midday.

Then potential coastal late Saturday into Sunday followed by cold blast. 

Then look for another coastal Tuesday followed by more cold.

 

 

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@WxUSAF wrote:

Quote

Being on the northern edge of the snow max at D3 range is where I want to be 10/10 times.

Generally, but...not sure that holds here, where we have a cold press and waves. Get that boundary a hair too far south and the dry air eats precip at the edges. That would be my failure mode for my 'hood on this one, frankly, so I am raising an eyebrow. And, that the areas that keep bullseyeing wander back into the bullseye makes the old "atmospheric memory" box get checked too...

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

@WxUSAF wrote:

Generally, but...not sure that holds here, where we have a cold press and waves. Get that boundary a hair too far south and the dry air eats precip at the edges. That would be my failure mode for my 'hood on this one, frankly, so I am raising an eyebrow. And, that the areas that keep bullseyeing wander back into the bullseye makes the old "atmospheric memory" box get checked too...

If there’s been a bullseye this year, it’s the Lehigh Valley in Pa! Definitely not southern MD and central VA. 
 

It’s a narrow snow band, so it wouldn’t take a huge jump to bullseye us.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

If there’s been a bullseye this year, it’s the Lehigh Valley in Pa! Definitely not southern MD and central VA. 
 

It’s a narrow snow band, so it wouldn’t take a huge jump to bullseye us.

Was thinking more that the bullseye for events specific to our forum has been west - the I-81 crew down to C'ville (with the usual arc'ing over to the Catoctins and PSU)...seeing them get bullseyed over to I-81 again makes some sense. In the overall big picture, yes, they pale in comparison to Lehigh Valley. But within our forum, they've generally cashed in max in most events. 

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

@WxUSAF wrote:

Generally, but...not sure that holds here, where we have a cold press and waves. Get that boundary a hair too far south and the dry air eats precip at the edges. That would be my failure mode for my 'hood on this one, frankly, so I am raising an eyebrow. And, that the areas that keep bullseyeing wander back into the bullseye makes the old "atmospheric memory" box get checked too...

Don't worry broski.  I got this one.  10/10 times there will be one model run 24 hours prior to the start and a dryslot, warm air, north shift, south shift, sinking air not modeled, and Tom Brady getting the refs to throw a flag at the other team which will show you who the OG SnowAus really is.

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Was thinking more that the bullseye for events specific to our forum has been west - the I-81 crew down to C'ville...seeing them get bullseyed makes some sense. In the overall big picture, yes, they pale in comparison to Lehigh Valley. But within our forum, they've generally cashed in max in most events. 

Probably will this time too just because it’s a west-east moving system and not pulling moisture off the Atlantic.

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