CAPE Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: Eventually people will learn not to get their hopes up based on clown maps. Some people, maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: I have some leftover mint, 4 limes, soda water and rum. Time to make the training wheels of cocktails....Mojito! I’m still not bored with my Manhattans, but I need to order some Luxardo cherries. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Medium range guidance has not performed well this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 00z HRRR looks right @psuhoffman 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Medium range guidance has not performed well this winter. Nor has your posting. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: Nor has your posting. You will fail hard tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: No. Trust me. I can summarize without the doom scrolling: Models are drier. Surface is kinda torchy (which models showed), but areas to the south reporting quick flip. Model comes in with a 2 mile shift SE and there is wholly exaggerated dooming again. More likely than not we come up short. Basically a normal mid Atlantic storm. 12 minutes ago, mappy said: lol thanks. It’s going to snow though so I’m not sure I understand the doom and gloom. Imo this isn’t a case of Ji freaking out over some day 7 solution trending 10 miles the wrong way. In the last 24 hours we went from this... with red tags discussing crazy fgen bands with thunder snow and 2” hr rates and possible 10” jackpots being likely to... And praying we can get enough rates to accumulate and hang on to a few inches. Yesterday we were legitimately on the cusp of a significant area wide 6-10” snowstorm and no that wasn’t some pipe dream that people were foolish to believe was possible. All guidance was heading that way and trending towards an amplified storm. Then it got pulled out from under us the last 24 hours. I actually think, given how gut wrenching the trends have been the last 24 hours given we were on the verge of a truly memorable event and now it looks very anemic and ordinary...the lack of freak outs and complaining has been admirable. Even Ji hasn’t blown up the thread at all. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: 00z HRRR looks right @psuhoffman Omg my 1.5” Jack lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Maybe some of us are just happy it will snow because we don’t buy the biggest snows as the ONLY outcome. And if that doesn’t materialize we declare it’s a shit storm. Maybe some of us get that things change that is totally out of our control and being shitty does nothing to change that. Maybe there are other things to enjoy with a smaller snow. Life isn’t the big dog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Final call map below Made significant changes based on latest trends in guidance. Hopefully they revert back a bit and screw over my map. Still a nice storm for some. The metros may never accumulate one inch due to UHI hell. Don't feel like writing a synopsis this evening. I'm tired and have a few things to do tonight. I'll check in after the 00z NAM runs and the HREF starts populating. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 How many dramatic takes can one person have in a day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I also think we’re all optimistic about the pattern and mid week looking legit at day 4 leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: Maybe some of us are just happy it will snow because we don’t buy the biggest snows as the ONLY outcome. And if that doesn’t materialize we declare it’s a shit storm. Maybe some of us get that things change that is totally out of our control and being shitty does nothing to change that. Maybe there are other things to enjoy with a smaller snow. Life isn’t the big dog. Two things can be true. Analyzing the runs as they come in and pointing out it looks worse doesn’t stop you from enjoying snow. If I get 2” tomorrow I’ll still enjoy the snow while it’s falling the same as if I hadn’t posted analysis of a bad model run. Those are mutually exclusive. I analyze every run the same. When it’s good I say why it’s good. I’m not like BTR thanksgiving and some others who only posts when it’s bad and says why it won’t snow. I’ll write a F’ing dissertation on how awesome a run was and how much snow we’re gonna get. But when it sucks I say why it sucks. No one complains after a good run when I explain why it was awesome...but when I pick apart a really awful model run the exact same way and explain why it could mean we won’t get much snow I sometimes get pushback. It’s the same analysis. It’s just not what people want to hear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 38 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’m still not bored with my Manhattans, but I need to order some Luxardo cherries. I was that kick for a long while. Then old fashioneds...then just straight scotch on the rocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, snowfan said: How many dramatic takes can one person have in a day? Day ain't over yet. If the NAM gets worse, I'm logging off. Not because we are going to get fooked, but because the Negative Nancy's are gonna have a misery fest the likes of which have never been seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 28 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: You will fail hard tomorrow. You logging out soon? Thanks for your service. You called it. This one is a fail. See you next storm. Drive safely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, wxtrix said: i have these from the VA ABC store when i feel lazy: Any good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 33 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: You will fail hard tomorrow. Sorry to you and baltimorewx. The NAM is improved. My thoughts and prayers are with you both. The RGEM/GFS are sure to disappoint, so all is not lost. Stick around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, wxtrix said: yes. it’s from a VA hard cider company so they use their apple juice. just add your fruit garnishes. it’s not a malt liquor so it’s good. i also have their vodka mules. these days have driven me to artisanal canned cocktails. Gonna look out for it. I'm betting that my local guy has it in his store. He's good with this type of stuff. And if not, he'd order it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sorry to you and baltimorewx. The NAM is improved. My thoughts and prayers are with you both. The RGEM/GFS are sure to disappoint, so all is not lost. Stick around. I’m not rooting for a fail. I’m happy to see the 0z NAM juiced things up. Hopefully the rest of 0z follows. It’s less than 8 hours from game time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s because you came back. I'm going to call this the cedar point storm because the Rollercoaster ride for this event has been off the chart Been to Cedar Point a few times years ago, fun place if you've ever been there. Grew up in northeast Ohio and it wasn't a far drive to go out to Sandusky. Great park, and yeah, the roller coaster capitol of the world LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Ford focus is 1 step from a freakin Yugo. My oldest has one . The tranny is garbage . Total pos car . I didnt buy it lol. No wonder Ford stopped making most of their cars lol Ford sedan transmissions are all shit- I could write several pages about all the issues my 2010 Fusion gave me. Eventually had the throttle body replaced under warranty a year after buying the car. It left me stranded several times, unable to accelerate (Ford Inc. finally admitted it was a failure years later and did a recall for all the cars). Every Fusion owner I know from that time period wound up with major transmission problems. My mom bought a 2013 Fiesta and still has transmission issues. I still have the car, but Ford will never get my money again, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You logging out soon? Thanks for your service. You called it. This one is a fail. See you next storm. Drive safely. I don't log out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, wxtrix said: yes. it’s from a VA hard cider company so they use their apple juice. just add your fruit garnishes. it’s not a malt liquor so it’s good. i also have their vodka mules. these days have driven me to artisanal canned cocktails. Looks tasty, I have to say!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Cliff jumpers step back lol Nam'd baby I actually thought the HH Euro was a positive shift at h5 . Maybe its onto something Or I'm on something lol That’s what I just said in the storm thread, just didn’t translate at the surface. The great American comeback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Thanks to all the Debs today for the thought provoking discussion. Stoked to wake up to “39/30”, “white rain”, “it’s raining”, “yeah, it’s snowing, but it’s not accumulating”, and all the other classics. Good night! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Mrs.J said: Grew up going to Cedar Point every year. It was not to far from where I grew up. Last time I was there was when we took the Miss J’s when they were younger. My parents went with us so Mr J and I could do the coasters. Let me just say I got on the Raptor and almost tossed my cookies. That was the day I knew I was done with inverted coasters. Hershey Park put the nail in my coffin when the Wild Mouse did the same. Yup, I hear ya! I used to be able to do those double-loops, corkscrews, etc. and loved it. Not anymore!! And the crazy coasters now are even more dramatic. All I can say is to those who can do that, more power to ya! But I'll just sit and watch and admire, thank you! Now, I will say, I do still like and can do the occasional "regular" or "traditional" coaster. I did a couple at Disney World a couple of years ago (Expedition Everest and Space Mountain, but just couldn't bring myself to do the Aerosmith Rock-and-Roller!)...but sudden drops of 1000 feet or upside down? Nahhhh, I'll pass now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Current temps really aren’t the biggest issue. Rates are. if the column can cool dynamically it won’t matter. Also wet bulbs will bring it down. You'll personally bring them down?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 56 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Thanks to all the Debs today for the thought provoking discussion. Stoked to wake up to “39/30”, “white rain”, “it’s raining”, “yeah, it’s snowing, but it’s not accumulating”, and all the other classics. Good night! What time am I setting my Fitbit alarm for? I’ll wake up any hour of the day or night to take a Jebwalk during white asteroid season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Imo this isn’t a case of Ji freaking out over some day 7 solution trending 10 miles the wrong way. In the last 24 hours we went from this... Yesterday we were legitimately on the cusp of a significant area wide 6-10” snowstorm and no that wasn’t some pipe dream that people were foolish to believe was possible. All guidance was heading that way and trending towards an amplified storm. Then it got pulled out from under us the last 24 hours. I actually think, given how gut wrenching the trends have been the last 24 hours given we were on the verge of a truly memorable event and now it looks very anemic and ordinary...the lack of freak outs and complaining has been admirable. Even Ji hasn’t blown up the thread at all. In this case tho, the storm didnt even really exist in anyone's mind until just what, 2 days before the big hit runs? Went from zero to 100 now pulling back to 60. I understand bumming out its not a max potential outcome because potential was there. But potential for no storm or something in between is sandwiched on both sides of the big runs. The largest solution always becomes the benchmark for success with every storm here. And because the largest rarely pan out in reality, every single event becomes very "unfun" no matter what happens 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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