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February Banter 2021


George BM
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Just now, CAPE said:

You didn't see that awesome band just drop dead as it approached our yards?

I had like 25 flakes. This is why I am not optimistic about seeing anything significant. 

I saw some flakes but I just didn't care. We've had so much snow this winter, this is getting boring. Like it just wants to snow almost every damn day.

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Just now, CAPE said:

You didn't see that awesome band just drop dead as it approached our yards?

I had like 25 flakes. This is why I am not optimistic about seeing anything significant. 

 

Think your correct. 

What gives?  A real busted forecast here. The models were not very good for northern DE. 

Will never even achieve warning criteria I think,  unless it snows here tonight at least 3 inches. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Think your correct. 

What gives?  A real busted forecast here. The models were not very good for northern DE. 

Will never even achieve warning criteria I think,  unless it snows here tonight at least 3 inches. 

 

 

What did you end up with for the WAA part yesterday?

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7 minutes ago, frd said:

2.5 inches 

I was not expecting anything from part 2, so if I get anything it is a bonus. I got 3 yesterday, but was hoping for 4-5. You were kind of in between- the best waa precip was going south, but you had potential to get in on the coastal fgen bands. Maybe you still will. As the 850 low shifts a bit further east, the eastern areas may get in on some better lift. Right now it's focused further west in our region.

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7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

The cruelty of dry slots. 

Banding is usually always cruel. Anywhere there is localized intense lift, there is adjacent sink. One of the many reasons I loved the late Jan 2010 event. It was super cold, and the snow literally just turned on and stayed moderate everywhere pretty much until the end. No jip zones.

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I hate that my call of 3-5” for SE Harford was dead-on. No piece of guidance had less than .5, and most were .75+. The WAA was much drier than modeled and forecast, on the order of 50%. I never had faith in the coastal, but even with that, at such a short lead, models were showing some moisture in my ‘hood and down on the upper Eastern Shore. The precipitation was about 30 miles too for NW once it finally was thrown back.

I don’t think a single model got the distribution of the precip in the MA correct. Some more than others obviously, but still. 12z GFS was ~50 miles too far east with the banding that occurred this evening.

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16 minutes ago, Avdave said:

Just saw Chester in Western Morris County at 24.8" as of 330pm. I saw on Channel 7 in NY a 27" report I think it was out by Stanhope.   Crazy. 

There' was a band near Dover, NJ that just sat and sat for hours earlier today. 

With the upcoming pattern (drink!), I think even Raleigh will get in on the fun especially early on as suppression is more of a thing.

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22 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Looks like we finally got better lift. Snow appeared outta nowhere in radar over to my east and expanded in every direction.

Guess what else just appeared outta nowhere? A DFH 90 min IPA.

Good thing, because that blob of lift is weakening lol. Look at the subsidence working in ahead of it on radar. Drink up!

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