February Banter 2021

[66degreesnorth]

Just now, mattie g said:

Exactly! ‘96 was crazy, but it seems like virtually every storm growing up was marginal, and that the Lehigh Valley got crushed all the freaking time!

My sledding hill was one of the off-ramps of the Betsy Ross Bridge. What an absolutely blast that was, regardless of whether we flipped to mix/rain or not! I went to CCHS, but knew plenty of folks from Voorhees!

Yeah not to belabor the point or hijack this into a discussion of philly, but I do feel like SJ really had plenty more uber-frustrating "wintry mix to rain" storms than I've seen in DC (been here since 2005). I'm glad your memory jives with mine that other than '96 it seemed like virtually every single winter storm growing up flipped to rain at some point, usually after 3-5 inches of snow. Anecdotally, it seems like DC does a better job of either getting completely shafted, dry slotted, or mixing to sleet rather than heavy rain, and so I've actually been happier here  (in upper NW DC so kind of away from the urban heat island). I was really jealous of Allentown as a kid, and perhaps one day I'll move to an actual good place for snow, but now, with a 3 year old and a 6 year old, my excitement about big snow is certainly tempered with a whiff of irritation about schools/day cares closing. My 10-year old self would be very disappointed in what I've become! 

Anyway always enjoy hearing about SJ - I also knew a few kids who went to CCHS. 

[Swiscaster]

41 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Best friend found a place that sells bottles of Old Weller Antique for a relatively good price, so I grabbed a bottle.

Goddamn if that ain’t a smooth-ass bourbon...

2 Kirin Ichibans at dinner 

6 TRULYs at home

2 Miller lites at the bar

back to TRULYs on the couch

[Swiscaster]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Dude ...your freaking rollin . Good job!

4 Yuengling's so far for me 

Haha, thanks.  Step it up, bro!  It’s my birthday, so I decided to drink.

[MillvilleWx]

17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

9th grade move for me as well.  I moved from the hood in NE Bmore to Carroll county in fall of 88'.

Where in NE Baltimore you from Losetoa? My dad was from Armstead Gardens area. Grew up there in 60s and 70s. 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Wow! 

That's real close dude !. Armstead was off Erdman Avenue near Freedom Way / Clairmont back in the day . Only a mile from me .

There was a store that sold penny candy there 

Damn. I'm sure my dad has been around your block once or twice. Small world eh haha

My grandfather (Moms father) still lives in the Gardens. He's super reserved, so he doesn't bother with anyone around there. 

[nw baltimore wx]

57 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

9th grade move for me as well.  I moved from the hood in NE Bmore to Carroll county in fall of 88'.

Man, that’s no hood. You need to drop by the 21208. That’s a hood!

[MillvilleWx]

29 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

CSX multiple trains tracks were near there . Bunch of us dumb kids use to jump on them at low mph lol and jump back off a mile down stream 

I know exactly where you went haha. That's funny. You certainly weren't the only ones who did that. Father told me bunch of buddies of his used to do that too. They just chugged low speed and hopped on the back. 

[psuhoffman]

15 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said:

PHL finished with 8.3" during the HECS & BWI had 4.0", so an 8.3" event is not that much LOL

plenty of storms the last 10yrs that BWI or DC did better than PHL??? there's only 3 of any real significance MAR 2014, JAN 2016 & JAN 2019

PHL has not been doing that much better than Baltimore in general, OK if in general means the prior 2 seasons, otherwise the average over the past 10 seasons is not even close:

PHL - 24.1" / BWI - 16.6" / DCA - 11.6"

I didn't include this season since it's still open however at this point the disparity will only increase unless some big changes:

PHL - 23.0" / BWI - 10.0" / DCA - 5.4

I will discuss and debate climo with you or anyone but I am not going to defend straw man positions.  You made a bunch of claims that don't refute or directly relate to the claims I made.  

I never compared Philly to DCA or BWI.  I never used 10 years as a measurement.  So lets define again what I did say.  

1. I said there is no drastic sudden snow climo change between DC and Philly...that it is gradual and Baltimore does marginally better then DC and Philly does marginally better then Baltimore and the drastic climo change happens NORTH of philly...and if you look at a snowfall avg map that is 100% true.  

2. I compared Philly to where I used to live near IAD.

3. I said "recently" then used 3 years as my example clearly implying my meaning of "recently" was about 3 years.   You then arbitrarily decided to take my words but use 10 years instead.  

Now some issues with your comparisons...BWI gets less snow then Baltimore.  DCA gets less snow then DC.  And I didn't even say Philly was comparable to those places.  Again I said Philly is marginally better then Baltimore (true if you look at averages which are NOT based on 10 years by the way). 

 

I did compare Philly to where I lived near IAD.  IAD historically averages a little bit more then Philly.  In the last 10 years Philly has had 24.1" and IAD 20.2 and that is a little out of line with longer term averages.  But you need to add some perspective to that.  First averages are not based on 10 years.  There is a very good reason for that which brings us to the next issue.  The entire discrepancy from "normal" in the last 10 years was due to 2 extremely anomalous seasons, 2011 and 2018.  In both years Philly got 3x more then the DC/Balt area.  That is VERY rare historically.  Most years if you compare IAD and Philly they are close to each other with almost an even chance of one or the other having more...but not that much more.  There are very few cases of that.  There are a few...with both IAD or Philly getting significantly more...but its rare.    So when you get 2 really abnormal seasons that are very unlikely to repeat often within one 10 year period it is going to skew the results a LOT.  That is why you can't calculate an average from 10 years.  It's not long enough a period to smooth out abnormal seasons like those 2.  So basically getting the 2 most anomalous snowfall seasons you will likely EVER see in terms of Philly overperforming and DC underperforming in a short span will skew the decade.  Odds are over 30 years or longer that will even out some.  But in the other 8 seasons Dulles averaged 2" more then Philly which is closer to the long term averages and climo.  

 

Also, I have stated on here many times that I believe AGW is hurting places further south on the coastal plan MORE then further north so far.  That will likely continue to creep north over time.  But for now it is likely the snowfall avg of DC is going down faster then Balitmore...and Baltimore is going down faster then Philly.  I have also said places JUST far enough north have seen their snowfall actually increase slightly due to a greater frequency of big storms.  So its possible Philly is just far enough north that their snowfall may have even gone up some lately if they are just on the winning side of that equation while DC is on the losing side.   So the differences between the two may be growing slightly.  But probably not as much as the last 10 years would indicate based on those 2 outlier years though.  

Still...Baltimore has had MORE snow then Philly in 4 of the last 6 seasons!  So the perception that Philly is KILLING this area in snowfall is still not in line with reality.  Philly has KILLED this area in 2 seasons out of the last 10...and the other 8 this area has been pretty much equal.  

Lastly you over minimize the normalcy of this area beating Philly in a storm.  IAD (which is where i compared) got significantly more then Philly way more often then you admitted.  

3 times in 2010.  Jan 30th, Feb 3, Feb 6.

3 storms in March 2014

2 storms in 2015, one in Feb and one in March

The HECS in 2016

The storm in January 2019 and another storm in Feb 2019

Yes...Philly often gets several inches more snow from a storm then northern VA.  And northern VA often gets several inches more then Philly.  But for some reason whenever we get more no one cares or notices.  But when Philly gets several inches more snow...it gets exaggerated and people act like its some kind of abomination.  I don't get it.  Those 2 seasons (2011 and 2018) were really weird and this area got screwed pretty bad in both by multiple storms, places south of here even did better those years...and I get the frustration with that those 2 years...but it wasn't just PHilly that did better...EVERYONE did better then DC area those years...they were both weird years where the DC area was the screw zone for the whole region.  And they were historic screw zones too where most everyone around had well above normal snowfall and this local little bubble somehow got missed by every storm and ended up below normal.  And its happening again this year....and that is incredibly frustrating...but again its weird that Philly is the focus so often.  Places south of DC are doing much better WRT climo this year also...but no one brings that up...its Philly for some reason. 

 

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, Swiscaster said:

Haha, thanks.  Step it up, bro!  It’s my birthday, so I decided to drink.

Happy birthday dude! 

[KAOS]

On 2/18/2021 at 7:14 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Since I don’t know what anyone looks like I always just picture people as their avatars.  Like I don’t even know what some people’s avatars actually are but they become the image of that particular poster. So you basically are Beethoven in my mind. 

As I said before... I picture them as their username.

Here is PSU...

[LP08]

[T. August]

10 hours ago, nj2va said:

There was a driver next to me on the beltway clearly smoking today...and couldn’t keep his car in the lane. I hope he got pulled over. Dangerous as drinking and driving. 

I am one of the most progressive people when it comes to smoking. That being said, only an absolute douche would smoke in a chick fil a drive-thru at lunch rush when everyone’s windows are down.

I was almost a narc that day.

[snowfan]

That PSU pic was funny, but as a fellow PSU alum I actually liked it.

[snowfan]

10 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Wow! 

That's real close dude !. Armstead was off Erdman Avenue near Freedom Way / Clairmont back in the day . Only a mile from me .

There was a store that sold penny candy there 

Crazy man and @MillvilleWxI also grew up right by Curley and armistead gardens. I went to Hamilton middle and Poly for HS before my folks moved us to southern PA in December of ‘95. Perfect timing, too. Weeks after we moved the January ‘96 blizzard hit and it was epic up there. Seeing these posts brought back lots of memories for sure.

[CAPE]

Thinking about going on a hike, but man this stuff is dense and slick. You literally walk on top.

[nw baltimore wx]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Thinking about going on a hike, but man this stuff is dense and slick. You literally walk on top.

The pod here is heading to Ten Eyck Brewery this afternoon if you want to hike and stumble.

[CAPE]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

The pod here is heading to Ten Eyck Brewery this afternoon if you want to hike and stumble.

I think stumbling/slipping/falling will occur easy enough without any adult beverage consumption lol.

[psuhoffman]

12 hours ago, snowfan said:

So very true. If i ever decide to move some place solely due to snow it’s either going to be a place where 100”+ seasons are a given or I have close proximity to mountains that get nuked every year. Who cares if someone gets 40” a year vs 20” closer to the city. Small potatoes stuff. 

Depends. If you have no ties or reasons to stay in the area then yea why move for a measly 10-20” more. On the other hand if you have a reason (family/job) that you can’t really just relocate as someone who lived near Philly then northern VA and now live here but commute to Baltimore and see the difference everyday...I can attest there is a significant difference. 
 

Along 95 you can go years without it feeling like winter at all. Where the only snow you get isn’t enough to cover the grass or melts almost immediately after. In 15 years up here that has never happened. I’ve verified a warning event every year. I get at least a week of cold and real legit snowcover every winter. Even last year,  about as bad as it gets, I had a couple minor snows in December to make it feel like Xmas and then 8.5” over 2 storms and a week that felt like real winter in January.  For the last 3 weeks my view looks like this...

 

I think there are a lot of people who are rational and just want some damn REAL snow at least once or twice a winter and would be totally content with the climo here. And the commute is manageable if you don’t mind driving (I don’t). On the other hand if you are the type that wants snow all the time and the minute one storm is over wants the next bearing down this won’t make you happy.
 

I’m somewhere in between. I’m mostly “content” but even this year it’s kinda a little annoying that all 3 of the big storms underperformed and trended worse from 48 hours. I know that’s crazy and most who got barely any snow can’t relate to feeling “meh” over 10” and it is stupid but had just one of them met expectations and been a flush hit 20” storm like they looked like from 2-3 days out up here I would be over the moon about this winter. Instead I feel content and good but not great because it sticks that every event was trending the wrong way and lowering expectations. It’s about excitement. I’d feel better about 8” from a storm that was only supposed to drop 2-4 then 12” from a storm that was supposed to drop 20”. Yea I’m crazy but it’s about the excitement level.  

 

lastly I wonder how much snow is too much. I don’t want to lose the thrill. Somewhere that gets 300”...would that become too normal?  Plus most of those places the snow is upslope. It’s not synoptic.  You can’t really track those unless you’re into tracking wind flow.  I’ve forecasted for ski areas recreationally.  It’s not the same.  Nothing is like a coastal storm!  That’s why I think somewhere in New England might be perfect. Their frequency of big nor’easters is higher and they get more snow, but it’s not so much that you get bored with it and they get legit storms you can track. But I dunno would get there and still be pissed when they get a bad year and I don’t have snow all the time because my expectations change based on location.   

[nw baltimore wx]

I don’t want to quote your entire post, but for me it’s not about “too much snow” rather than winter goes on too long. There’s a late season storm almost every year that’s dumping snow and ice in NE and I’m out working in the yard or garden under sunny skies, and breezy mid 50’s. I don’t want winter to outstay its welcome.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

I don’t want to quote your entire post, but for me it’s not about “too much snow” rather than winter goes on too long. There’s almost a late season storm every year that’s dumping snow and ice in NE and I’m out working in the yard or garden under sunny skies, and breezy mid 50’s. I don’t want winter to outstay its welcome.

lol I get that but for me even up there they get plenty of warm weather from May to September.   Might even make me appreciate it more. 

[nw baltimore wx]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

lol I get that but for me even up there they get plenty of warm weather from May to September.   Might even make me appreciate it more. 

Yeah, ask me again in July when it’s 98 and sultry here and 76 in Maine at a picnic table with lobsters and fried clam strips.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Yeah, ask me again in July when it’s 98 and sultry here and 76 in Maine at a picnic table with lobsters and fried clam strips.

Exactly. That’s another nice thing being on this ridge. We might get a week or two that’s too hot but it’s not the whole summer. Usually when it’s 92 in Baltimore it’s 84 with a cool breeze up here. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, LP08 said:

Flat- out nasty.  One of the best dunks I've seen in 40 years of basketball.

[snowfan]

33 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I don’t want to quote your entire post, but for me it’s not about “too much snow” rather than winter goes on too long. There’s a late season storm almost every year that’s dumping snow and ice in NE and I’m out working in the yard or garden under sunny skies, and breezy mid 50’s. I don’t want winter to outstay its welcome.

I can certainly understand this. I see Denver as a perfect spot. I could be out cycling on a warm morning in early June and then be skiing upon Loveland pass in the afternoon only a short drive away

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Exactly. That’s another nice thing being on this ridge. We might get a week or two that’s too hot but it’s not the whole summer. Usually when it’s 92 in Baltimore it’s 84 with a cool breeze up here. 

Cool breeze might be taking it a bit far lol. There are no 'cool' breezes with temps in the 80s in July.. But any breeze is good when it's warm and humid as a mofo.

[EastCoast NPZ]

I was in Rangeley,  ME, July 2019.  36F in the evening.  The place is Heaven.

[HighStakes]

42 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep...i could see Curley from my house by Sinclair Lane Elementary school.  I actually went to northeast middle school.  My brother and I would walk the roughly 1.5- 2 Miles every day to school . My older brother also went to Poly tech 86-88' . Back then there was only a A+B course so since I skipped half of 6th 7th 8th grades I had a great D+ average which put me in Lake Clifton.  My older friends went to LC and all dropped out . Luckily we moved before I had to go there . Very rough school back then as was northeast middle.  Small world though . 

Lake Clifton was rough but had a great basketball team in the mid to late 80's. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, CAPE said:

Cool breeze might be taking it a bit far lol. There are no 'cool' breezes with temps in the 80s in July.. But any breeze is good when it's warm and humid as a mofo.

We usually get a nice breeze up on this ridge. Even just the mile into town it feels a lot hotter in summer.  It’s not like New England cool but I can usually count the days that feel oppressive to be out in my yard on one hand where as in Baltimore it’s June to August 90% of the time. 

[snowfan]

41 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep...i could see Curley from my house by Sinclair Lane Elementary school.  I actually went to northeast middle school.  My brother and I would walk the roughly 1.5- 2 Miles every day to school . My older brother also went to Poly tech 86-88' . Back then there was only a A+B course so since I skipped half of 6th 7th 8th grades I had a great D+ average which put me in Lake Clifton.  My older friends went to LC and all dropped out . Luckily we moved before I had to go there . Very rough school back then as was northeast middle.  Small world though . 

I remember walking up erdman towards the erdman animal hospital. There used to be a baseball card shop close to the erdman and belair rd intersection that I spent plenty of allowance money in. And, I got plenty fat eating at chaps pit beef on rte 40 in the gentleman’s gold club parking lot. Lol. Remember when golden ring mall was a thing? Ha.

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We usually get a nice breeze up on this ridge. Even just the mile into town it feels a lot hotter in summer.  It’s not like New England cool but I can usually count the days that feel oppressive to be out in my yard on one hand where as in Baltimore it’s June to August 90% of the time. 

I lived on a local high spot when I was up there, on the east edge of Parrs, north of 26 and south of 32, and very close to to 97. Around 850 feet iirc.  My memories of summers there were plenty of heat and humidity, but I suppose being a bit further north and a couple hundred feet higher can make some difference.