February Banter 2021

[Kmlwx]

12 minutes ago, MDphotog said:

To me, I think it has to do with amount of buildup or anticipation of winter storms and the nature of winter storms themselves.  For severe storms, I think most of us going in know that on any given chance, some get them, most will not.  It is what it is.  Plus severe chance isn't something you spend nearly as much time tracking and analyzing (or at least pretend to know how to).  Just check on it, "cool there is chance" and move on.  It is much less of a time/emotional commitment for most I think.

Agreed - the time spent on winter storms is definitely way more than severe. The amount of times we fail on winter though would tend to argue we should always just assume we'll find a way to fail  

[The Ole Bucket]

26 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

@The Ole BucketI just want you to know that you have my favorite username on the board by far.

Thank you. Though I think, especially for this year, @Warm Nose ought to be considered da real MVP.

[psuhoffman]

45 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

What are you talking about? I'm responding to posts. Plain and simple. I don't see you stepping into the darkness when someone debates with you. The double standard is incredible. And you betray your own ego by thinking I'm taking a 'victory lap'. If you're a true forecaster, being right shouldn't be the goal. It should be finding out the truth. And people are still coming after me for stating facts. It's plain childish. Look at the posts last night. I was on an island, and I happened to be on to something. Now I'm taking heat. 

It's happened several times in the short time I've been back in this sub, and quite frankly, I'm not going to just take crap if it continues. It's frustrating that I'm actually providing some foresight and it's being twisted, not to mention with bitterness. I don't give a sh*t if I'm right or wrong. It's that there's an exclusive culture here, and it's clear as day. 

You are responding to what you created.  People aren't coming at you for no reason unprovoked so stop it with the persecution complex nonsense.  That post I responded to was just picked at random.  I was worried about the warm layer too but I'm not going all over the board this morning while people are disappointed and frustrated saying basically "I told ya so" over and over and over again.   And I am probably guilty of doing some of that in frustration sometimes and I should try to cut it out and tone it down and I admit I have faults but "two wrongs make a right" is a crappy justification.  Lastly, for the record, your NAM comments are a bit much.  The NAM did see the idea of a mid level warm layer first...but it was also WAY WAY WAY off synpitically at range too.  And frankly all the CAM's saw the warm layer the NAM is simply the only one that goes out to 84 hours so yea it "saw it first" I guess.  And the NAM got some stuff way wrong, like the placement of the precip banding...had that super band set up over 95 like the NAM thought last night at 0z DC to Baltimore would have done a LOT better...even if that was all sleet it would have been 3" of sleet!  But we saw that at times it mixed with snow when heavy banding did get east so it would have had some snow...and probably been 4-5" and a win.  But that banding set up NW of 95 and there wasnt steady enough heavy precip for a long enough period to mix out the warm layer...and there wasn't enough precip for sleet to really pile up and accumulate...and so total fail.  But the NAM didnt NAIL it...it was right about the mid level warm layer and wrong about almost everything else!  

[aldie 22]

You know what they say about a warm nose.....cold heart....so true...

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I measured 5.5" of pretty much all snow when I first got up and shoveled off my "measuring spot".  Since then I got 2.5" of half snow/sleet mix for a total of 8" of frozen that fell but the depth everywhere is still only 6.5" due to compacting from the weight of the ice on top of the snow.    But lets assume the 5.5" had higher ratios so is like .45 qpf.  But the 2.5" since is VERY low ratio lets say 5-1 so best guess I was close to 1" qpf up here under that banding...which makes sense because that is what all the guidance said the qpf would be only they had that band along 95 near DC not up here.  

Big surprise that the best banding ended up over fringe land! That never happens!

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I am so glad I don't do this to myself anymore. Not going to lie though I had a moment. Just a short one right now.

 

But really you can't make it up. Just unbelievable bad luck we've had. At some point this bad luck has to end, right? Please PSU, make it stop?

 

 

Hey man how you been?  Was wondering what happened to you this year.  Hope all is well.  

ETA:  It is SOME bad luck...and I also think some of its the pac base state and some of it is AGW.  

[Eskimo Joe]

Well this winter was fun. Time to dust off the ole' fishing rods and get ready for bass season.

[The Ole Bucket]

4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You know what they say about a warm nose.....cold heart....so true...

But he's not been telling lies...

 

 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Well this winter was fun. Time to dust off the ole' fishing rods and get ready for bass season.

I feel bad for quitting already... but man. This was terrible. Bring on the 75° days . Let’s just torch the rest of this “winter”. 

[Deer Whisperer]

Someone check on Ji

[Wetbulbs88]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You are responding to what you created.  People aren't coming at you for no reason unprovoked so stop it with the persecution complex nonsense.  That post I responded to was just picked at random.  I was worried about the warm layer too but I'm not going all over the board this morning while people are disappointed and frustrated saying basically "I told ya so" over and over and over again.   And I am probably guilty of doing some of that in frustration sometimes and I should try to cut it out and tone it down and I admit I have faults but "two wrongs make a right" is a crappy justification.  Lastly, for the record, your NAM comments are a bit much.  The NAM did see the idea of a mid level warm layer first...but it was also WAY WAY WAY off synpitically at range too.  And frankly all the CAM's saw the warm layer the NAM is simply the only one that goes out to 84 hours so yea it "saw it first" I guess.  And the NAM got some stuff way wrong, like the placement of the precip banding...had that super band set up over 95 like the NAM thought last night at 0z DC to Baltimore would have done a LOT better...even if that was all sleet it would have been 3" of sleet!  But we saw that at times it mixed with snow when heavy banding did get east so it would have had some snow...and probably been 4-5" and a win.  But that banding set up NW of 95 and there wasnt steady enough heavy precip for a long enough period to mix out the warm layer...and there wasn't enough precip for sleet to really pile up and accumulate...and so total fail.  But the NAM didnt NAIL it...it was right about the mid level warm layer and wrong about almost everything else!  

i could stop reading after the first sentence. Patently false. I haven't created anything. Show me the post where I created the argument. I'll be waiting. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said:

Someone check on Ji

Ji melting down contributed to the expansive warm layer.

[Hurricanegiants]

I’ll take Weather for $300.

When a Winter Storm Warning that calls for 6-8 inches of snow and then turns into an Advisory with 1-1.5 inch(ES) of pixie dust laced with slush. 
 

What is: The Mid Atlantic from 2016-2021. 
 

Correct. Pick again. 

[The Ole Bucket]

Ah so we have found the REAL warm nose!

[Deer Whisperer]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Ji melting down contributed to the expansive warm layer.

The science seems solid

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Big surprise that the best banding ended up over fringe land! That never happens!

for the record I was NEVER worried about "fringe" with this storm 

[ovechkin]

3 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Lets hope part two overperforms later today/tonight! Still quite a bit of moisture flowing north from the deep south.

Whatever you are smoking please share!  

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, KAOS said:

Not sure I can do this again. Absolutely horrible winter in Pasadena. Sun should be out shortly.

It does take a lot of you, but you gotta do just one more.   We're getting the band back together for one more tour.

[JakkelWx]

The only person that can be more confusing than Ji is Typhoon Tip

[Jebman]

27 degrees with moderate to heavy snow here. Big big aggregates! Picked up another inch on top of the ice on the old snowpack. That's 9.5 inches snow on the season which puts us at something like ~ 1600 percent of normal.

[EHoffman]

Just now, Jebman said:

27 degrees with moderate to heavy snow here. Big big aggregates! Picked up another inch on top of the ice on the old snowpack. That's 9.5 inches snow on the season which puts us at something like ~ 1600 percent of normal.

Come back to NoVa we don't get snow without you

[Wetbulbs88]

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You are responding to what you created.  People aren't coming at you for no reason unprovoked so stop it with the persecution complex nonsense.  That post I responded to was just picked at random.  I was worried about the warm layer too but I'm not going all over the board this morning while people are disappointed and frustrated saying basically "I told ya so" over and over and over again.   And I am probably guilty of doing some of that in frustration sometimes and I should try to cut it out and tone it down and I admit I have faults but "two wrongs make a right" is a crappy justification.  Lastly, for the record, your NAM comments are a bit much.  The NAM did see the idea of a mid level warm layer first...but it was also WAY WAY WAY off synpitically at range too.  And frankly all the CAM's saw the warm layer the NAM is simply the only one that goes out to 84 hours so yea it "saw it first" I guess.  And the NAM got some stuff way wrong, like the placement of the precip banding...had that super band set up over 95 like the NAM thought last night at 0z DC to Baltimore would have done a LOT better...even if that was all sleet it would have been 3" of sleet!  But we saw that at times it mixed with snow when heavy banding did get east so it would have had some snow...and probably been 4-5" and a win.  But that banding set up NW of 95 and there wasnt steady enough heavy precip for a long enough period to mix out the warm layer...and there wasn't enough precip for sleet to really pile up and accumulate...and so total fail.  But the NAM didnt NAIL it...it was right about the mid level warm layer and wrong about almost everything else!  

Reading the rest of the post, it only gets worse. Moderators of this sub chastised me for being gloomy about last night's NAM. One of which said, and I quote, "Is there another side to this record?" So now you're twisting my assertion that those criticisms are totally baseless. Is it not possible that you're lacking context? So yes, when you respond saying that I'm gloating, it's simply ridiculous. Meanwhile, you're doing your best to cover your own *ss about your own calls last night. How do I respond? Politely, mentioning that you were letting your hope for us getting snow influence your decision, which I would hardly call a bitter criticism. What did I do after that? I suggested that I don't care who's right. What did you do? Double down that I was posting everywhere gloating. Again, show me where I've been 'gloating' and I'll be happy to reflect further. On the contrary, I was pointing out that people within the culture of exclusivity treat others differently.  

Now you're going on and on about your own call, which is 100% irrelevant, and proving my point about your projection. I don't care about that. I made one simple point that was somewhat tongue in cheek because you were rooting for us to get snow. 

You're digging yourself a deeper hole, and there's absolutely no way you're going to bully me into silence. You're simply treating me different than you would treat 'original' members. It's clear. If you maintain the culture of exclusivity, I will push back against it. It provides a disincentive for people to participate. That's why you have trolls, and furthermore, accuse people of being a troll who might not be--which was precisely how I was treated the very minute I stepped in here upon moving back to this area. 

[vastateofmind]

We probably have .5" to .75" here, even on paved surfaces. I've seen a few in the sub mention shoveling already, but I'm wondering if I should get out there to clear the sidewalks/driveway. A couple next-door neighbors are out there making me feel guilty.

[Jebman]

Just now, EHoffman said:

Come back to NoVa we don't get snow without you

Lol I might have to visit some time.

[diatae]

5 hours ago, diatae said:

Night shift banter is always a gift.

 

5 hours ago, diatae said:

Day shift banter is always a gift.

The obs thread is always a gift.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, diatae said:

The obs thread is always a gift.

You're catching on quick.  

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

27 degrees with moderate to heavy snow here. Big big aggregates! Picked up another inch on top of the ice on the old snowpack. That's 9.5 inches snow on the season which puts us at something like ~ 1600 percent of normal.

How you been holding up over there Jeb? I know this stretch has been one for the record books to the northwest

[EHoffman]

2 minutes ago, diatae said:

 

The obs thread is always a gift.

The wetbulbs/psuhoffman argument is the dumbest thing I've ever read.

[diatae]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

You're catching on quick.  

Lol! I've professionally lurked here for 5 years now. Decided to poke my head out this season. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Reading the rest of the post, it only gets worse. Moderators of this sub chastised me for being gloomy about last night's NAM. One of which said, and I quote, "Is there another side to this record?" So now you're twisting my assertion that those criticisms are totally baseless. Is it not possible that you're lacking context? So yes, when you respond saying that I'm gloating, it's simply ridiculous. Meanwhile, you're doing your best to cover your own *ss about your own calls last night. How do I respond? Politely, mentioning that you were letting your hope for us getting snow influence your decision, which I would hardly call a bitter criticism. What did I do after that? I suggested that I don't care who's right. What did you do? Double down that I was posting everywhere gloating. Again, show me where I've been 'gloating' and I'll be happy to reflect further. On the contrary, I was pointing out that people within the culture of exclusivity treat others differently.  

Now you're going on and on about your own call, which is 100% irrelevant, and proving my point about your projection. I don't care about that. I made one simple point that was somewhat tongue in cheek because you were rooting for us to get snow. 

You're digging yourself a deeper hole, and there's absolutely no way you're going to bully me into silence. You're simply treating me different than you would treat 'original' members. It's clear. If you maintain the culture of exclusivity, I will push back against it. It provides a disincentive for people to participate. That's why you have trolls, and furthermore, accuse people of being a troll who might not be--which was precisely how I was treated the very minute I stepped in here upon moving back to this area. 

I said I was wrong.  I was being optimistic.  Oh well.  You were right...now move on.  Or continue to post again and again and again about it, it's not like your popularity can go down much so what's it matter.  I am done.