Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well, on to our next fail. See everybody in the long range thread after this is over in like 3 minutes. you can go ahead and suspend me now. I got nothing left 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: Taking this to banter. This is what annoyed me the most this winter. It's not like it's just been super warm or a lack of precip. Places that have way worse snow climos than the DC area have gotten crazy winter weather and we've gotten jack crap for what, like the 4th straight year? Add Jerusalem and Istanbul to that list btw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, on to our next fail. See everybody in the long range thread after this is over in like 3 minutes. I think I've got one more in me, then March is here and it's time to move on. And honestly, heading to the in-laws' in HHI in a few weeks might help the transition. But if there's a storm up here while we're gone, so help me God... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I'd be happy with 0.1" as long as the Euro, the Para and the RGEM don't show more than .2" at any time within 72hrs of the storm and LWX has me at .05 -.07" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I went with 2-5" along 95. At the time with all the doom posting about the NAM's showing no snow I kind of considered that a positive bust. Even that looks high though, although remember sleet accumulation counts. But I really thought with heavier banding it would mix with snow enough...but the heavy banding (again) set up NW of 95 so that didn't work out. It was close...you can see during some of the heavy banding places pretty far SE did mix with snow. I wanted to be optimistic. Figured we were due for something to break good for once. I was wrong about that. But my "fear" all along for what could wreck this turned out to be correct. Even up here I have mixed with a lot of sleet and its holding down accumulations. I could tell your emotions were coming into play on this one. It was tough to ignore the potential given the guidance. I appreciate that you're feeling for us down here. It's just beyond painful at this point. The NAM was onto something though, and NWS knew it. In fact I think they knew the warning for DC was misplaced by that point. They're disco last last night was literally the writing on the wall. Funny enough, even if it was all snow, it really wouldn't have been that great an event. Once again the swampy shallows of DC destroyed lift for much of the time. And this thing was in and out within what? Five hours at most? Another trait the pros at Sterling nailed, which none of the models did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Majopa said: Been here a bout a month or so. Accuweather.com has been better at predicting the weather than the 20,000 different models and forecasts posted here. In every other winter it has been the opposite. You're using an extremely small sample size. But you do you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Majopa said: Been here a bout a month or so. Accuweather.com has been better at predicting the weather than the 20,000 different models and forecasts posted here. Just curious. Why are you here? Oh. And welcome to my ignore list. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Majopa Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: Just curious. Why are you here? Oh. And welcome to my ignore list. I like to laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Just curious. Why are you here? Oh. And welcome to my ignore list. Wait.. there’s an ignore list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Here come the trolls. My ignore list is growing by the minute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I could tell your emotions were coming into play on this one. It was tough to ignore the potential given the guidance. I appreciate that you're feeling for us down here. It's just beyond painful at this point. The NAM was onto something though, and NWS knew it. In fact I think they knew the warning for DC was misplaced by that point. They're disco last last night was literally the writing on the wall. Funny enough, even if it was all snow, it really wouldn't have been that great an event. Once again the swampy shallows of DC destroyed lift for much of the time. And this thing was in and out within what? Five hours at most? Another trait the pros at Sterling nailed, which none of the models did. The NAM had the precip shield screaming out of here, and as a general rule of thumb I always knock off 2-3 hours for precip duration because it always goes faster in actuality. NAM did an incredible job again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run? Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier. This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart. Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out. You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95? Just think back and ask yourself what happened at roughly 48 hours before onset lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just think back and ask yourself what happened at roughly 48 hours before onset lol @stormtracker was adamant we start a storm thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Majopa Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: In every other winter it has been the opposite. Yeah I highly doubt that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: The NAM had the precip shield screaming out of here, and as a general rule of thumb I always knock off 2-3 hours for precip duration because it always goes faster in actuality. NAM did an incredible job again. Yep. I guess people just tend to cast my posts aside but I banged the drum last night, and I've been saying for years (in the NY forum as well) that the NAM(s) are greatly improved models. Yes, they're prevaricating. But that's what they do. At 12-36 hours they have been the best models this year bar none. When I was in Harlem it was the same deal. NAM was the first to catch onto something at the final hour. The massive 2017 blizzard that was supposed to bring 24-36" in March--it absolutely nailed the warm nose, and the pros had egg all over their face. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 So glad we decided to close shop up today. It’s fugly out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Yep. I guess people just tend to cast my posts aside but I banged the drum last night, and I've been saying for years (in the NY forum as well) that the NAM(s) are greatly improved models. Yes, they're prevaricating. But that's what they do. At 12-36 hours they have been the best models this year bar none. When I was in Harlem it was the same deal. NAM was the first to catch onto something at the final hour. The massive 2017 blizzard that was supposed to bring 24-36" in March--it absolutely nailed the warm nose, and the pros had egg all over their face. This 0z nam? For whatever reason, events just dry up as they happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: This 0z nam? For whatever reason, events just dry up as they happen. So you're cherry picking data points, congrats. The pros at NWS specifically mentioned the NAM's temperature profiles. And many received this QPF, just not our area. Try again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I say this in a non-condescending tone...hopefully as a weather nerd community, we have learned this winter the NAMs are very good inside of 36-48 hours...especially with thermal height profiles. @high risk has been a big supporter and advocate for it's benefit and hopefully people will elevate it in their forecasting toolbox. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Round Hill WX said: I say this in a non-condescending tone...hopefully as a weather nerd community, we have learned this winter the NAMs are very good inside of 36-48 hours...especially with thermal height profiles. @high risk has been a big supporter and advocate for it's benefit and hopefully people will elevate it in their forecasting toolbox. You'd have to be willfully ignorant to ignore the NAM nowadays. It might overdo QPF sometimes but it is a fantastic model for sniffing out suspect thermal layers. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 At some point y’all will need to sacrifice Ji to the weather gods to get snow around here. Bad juju Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 28 minutes ago, mattie g said: I think I've got one more in me, then March is here and it's time to move on. And honestly, heading to the in-laws' in HHI in a few weeks might help the transition. But if there's a storm up here while we're gone, so help me God... Same. One more event and let's put this sorry episode behind us and get on to the 70's. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Same. One more event and let's put this sorry episode behind us and get on to the 70's. If there's one thing we're really good at, it's 2-4" March slush bombs that melt by noon. Beautiful to look at but no need to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Not sure I can do this again. Absolutely horrible winter in Pasadena. Sun should be out shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: I disagree. First of all, very pedantic scrutiny of the word area. By area, I meant our area. Not sure how you derived otherwise, or how that's relevant. Secondly, the 0z NAM last night was by far the most accurate solution. The pros specifically singled it out. If you took the snow maps verbatim that's on you. But the mix line and soundings were damn near right. Ok you got your victory lap now stop 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Majopa Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is more precip coming? Ill save you the trouble No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 .8 sleet - woo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 This is EXACTLY how this winter is going to end.... Wave 1 Wave 2 And even though we KNOW its coming its still going to hurt sooooo bad. LOL 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: This is EXACTLY how this winter is going to end.... Wave 1 Wave 2 And even though we KNOW its coming its still going to hurt sooooo bad. LOL Delete this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 46 minutes ago, Majopa said: Do you people and the others in the weather watching community ever get tired of being so wrong so often? Amazing content on a free site. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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