LP08 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, EHoffman said: I totally agree, gimme a break people saying just be happy it's frozen. This was a great setup for at least a few hours of heavy snow for everyone and we got the rug pulled last minute AGAIN. I'm pissed. We missed out on sick rates for more shitty ice. I have about 0.4" of sleet (probably being generous). Incredibly frustrating to have missed out consistently on heavier precip. I can't imagine DCA will measure greater than half of what was forecasted for total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, mattie g said: What if you didn't get a sleet bomb? I'd have been all about it if it had really ripped sleet for hours, but it didn't. Valid point - though even then - I wouldn't say I even ripped sleet for hours. I was in the crab claw for hours this morning. The sleet has really just been absolutely bursting for the last 20-30 minutes or so (if that). Mostly it's just been light sleet with spikes into the moderate territory. I think I've seen 7 flakes total. ETA: I don't even think I've hit 1 inch of sleet. Looking out the window it's pretty unimpressive if I'm going by scenery and amounts. It's already slowing down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: And not only that - it's not like EVERYONE is missing out. It is the usual crew missing out. On top of all the other misses. Yup. It's been the same thing time and time again this year. I realize that it's dumb to complain, but it's good to vent after so much frustration. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I don’t begrudge them, but I think the majority of folks here care about snow and everything else is a far distant second—if it even registers at all. Six weeks from now this place will clear out. The the painful gap between winter and severe season begins. Maybe we can score on some sort of squally type sub-severe line at some point early season. March and April can be really slow if nothing happens. Nice weather at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: The the painful gap between winter and severe season begins. Maybe we can score on some sort of squally type sub-severe line at some point early season. March and April can be really slow if nothing happens. Nice weather at least! Sometimes it feels like severe season is even more of a letdown than winter here! I just want a derecho... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Valid point - though even then - I wouldn't say I even ripped sleet for hours. I was in the crab claw for hours this morning. The sleet has really just been absolutely bursting for the last 20-30 minutes or so (if that). Mostly it's just been light sleet with spikes into the moderate territory. I think I've seen 7 flakes total. I hear you. We got moderate sleet for a bit, but it never got really interesting. And now it's pretty much done, so that's a bummer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Hey at least philly is getting a good 6-10 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 “Memories...like the corners of my mind. Misty watercolor memories, of the way we were.” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don’t begrudge them, but I think the majority of folks here care about snow and everything else is a far distant second—if it even registers at all. Six weeks from now this place will clear out. I cleared out of here last spring and summer. The COVID whirlwind really took it out of me, but we learned to deal once we settled into a routine, so luckily you all should have me around again this "severe season." 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: I hear you. We got moderate sleet for a bit, but it never got really interesting. And now it's pretty much done, so that's a bummer too. I had sent out a forecast to my friends and coworkers of 2-4 inches and then sleet and ice. Definitely another bust - and I thought I might be on the low end of forecasts - I'm not going to put down anyone who is bummed out by the storm - it's definitely yet another potential example of DC area climo shifting away from snow even more. Perhaps we only get a HUGE one every bunch of years and everything else will start being like this. Nonetheless - this hobby has always worked this way - must have been semi more interesting before we had NWP to look at. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcostell Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, mdhokie said: Hey at least philly is getting a good 6-10 inches! Nope- Sleetfest in town. Underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: I had sent out a forecast to my friends and coworkers of 2-4 inches and then sleet and ice. Definitely another bust - and I thought I might be on the low end of forecasts - I'm not going to put down anyone who is bummed out by the storm - it's definitely yet another potential example of DC area climo shifting away from snow even more. Perhaps we only get a HUGE one every bunch of years and everything else will start being like this. Nonetheless - this hobby has always worked this way - must have been semi more interesting before we had NWP to look at. Take it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, rcostell said: Nope- Sleetfest in town. Underwhelming. My buddy in Conshohocken is getting plastered, sleet line must be right over the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, mdhokie said: Hey at least philly is getting a good 6-10 inches! I guess Ralph is no longer concerned and Wentz is no longer needing us to be careful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Someone needs to make a fail video montage at the end of the winter with all the great digital snow runs within 72 hours set to music. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: Sometimes it feels like severe season is even more of a letdown than winter here! I just want a derecho... For sure. I think the issue with severe is that it's way easier to miss out on a major storm cell that is 10 miles wide at best versus a big coastal. But that's just severe - and honestly with severe at least in the summer you're usually only a day or two away from the next isolated storm chance (or more). You generally get more opportunities in severe season vs winter (perhaps not for a region wide outbreak - but just for strong-severe storms in general). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Yup. It's been the same thing time and time again this year. I realize that it's dumb to complain, but it's good to vent after so much frustration. @psuhoffman might be onto something regarding our new "normal". Looking at the soundings from IAD, the warm layer is only +1c, but it seems in previous storms that layer would be near 0 and rates would overcome any melting. Now it seems we cannot overcome the warm layer and require a perfect setup at all layers to score snow in/around the cities. Even the closer in n/w burbs are sleeting with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Sometimes it feels like severe season is even more of a letdown than winter here! I just want a derecho... Also...and this is not targeted at you - but as I've said before recently...the nice thing about severe season too is the mood in here is way lighter. We miss a severe event and we all kind of shrug it off and talk about EMLs and joke around with each other. Winter weenies tend to bring out the low blows, insults and cranky behavior. I can pick out more than a few members of this forum that seem to have completely different personalities in summer versus winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I had sent out a forecast to my friends and coworkers of 2-4 inches and then sleet and ice. Definitely another bust - and I thought I might be on the low end of forecasts - I'm not going to put down anyone who is bummed out by the storm - it's definitely yet another potential example of DC area climo shifting away from snow even more. Perhaps we only get a HUGE one every bunch of years and everything else will start being like this. Nonetheless - this hobby has always worked this way - must have been semi more interesting before we had NWP to look at. I understand the concern about climo shifting, but I'm not ready to lay the blame for a bad few years on that changing climo. Maybe I should, but I'm just not ready to do that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Problem here was precip this morning. All of that got shifted to where PSU is since he got like 5 overnight. Most models had the cities around .3 by 12z. DCA recorded 0.07. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: Also...and this is not targeted at you - but as I've said before recently...the nice thing about severe season too is the mood in here is way lighter. We miss a severe event and we all kind of shrug it off and talk about EMLs and joke around with each other. Winter weenies tend to bring out the low blows, insults and cranky behavior. I can pick out more than a few members of this forum that seem to have completely different personalities in summer versus winter. Totally...I wasn't even trying to be a dick earlier this week, I simply called out what I see all the time here and I ended up being mostly right. I even toned it down past couple of days. I think the knowledge in this forum is great and there's a lot of great posters, but we are all diseased weenies and get way too emotional over snow. I sure do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: I understand the concern about climo shifting, but I'm not ready to lay the blame for a bad few years on that changing climo. Maybe I should, but I'm just not ready to do that yet. Perhaps not a few changing years - but the overall gaps between "good years" - Maybe you're right and this year was just bad luck and bad timing - but @psuhoffman is right...some of these events with like tiny tweaks would have been MUCH better regionwide. Will be interesting to see what the rest of the 2020s hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: Totally...I wasn't even trying to be a dick earlier this week, I simply called out what I see all the time here and I ended up being mostly right. I even toned it down past couple of days. I think the knowledge in this forum is great and there's a lot of great posters, but we are all diseased weenies and get way too emotional over snow. I sure do. It's honestly the reason I've taken to following @Bob Chill. High school/early college me would legit get like a depression after failed winter storms. Life has just sort of developed in a way for me that I still love snow, but I look at the fact that I still got some shovel time in (call me crazy but I enjoy doing it) and then the silver lining is that I didn't get trapped from seeing friends/family for an extended period. Not to say I wouldn't give a kidney for a Jan 2016 again - I might consider it...just that I've changed since the Eastern days. It can be refreshing - I still get bummed - but I try to let it only be for a day or so and just sort of let it roll off my back. At a certain point I just decided enjoying weather and tracking sure beats going on a downer for days after a winter storm that could have been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Totally...I wasn't even trying to be a dick earlier this week, I simply called out what I see all the time here and I ended up being mostly right. I even toned it down past couple of days. I think the knowledge in this forum is great and there's a lot of great posters, but we are all diseased weenies and get way too emotional over snow. I sure do. Congrats. Seriously. I can always admit when I’m wrong. We were the PARA GFS and you were the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Clearly this is just one of those years that could have been. We still have some winter left - and lately March has been a true winter month. So we'll see if we can squeeze some more heartbreak for those of you who haven't been reaped yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Congrats. Seriously. I can always admit when I’m wrong. We were the PARA GFS and you were the NAM. He definitely was right. I wasn't even arguing that he was going to be wrong the entire time - my argument was that if we were going to truly get a slug of sleet/freezing rain that it wouldn't be a "no big deal" and "wet roads" for DC. The storm itself just kind of busted as a whole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: He definitely was right. I wasn't even arguing that he was going to be wrong the entire time - my argument was that if we were going to truly get a slug of sleet/freezing rain that it wouldn't be a "no big deal" and "wet roads" for DC. The storm itself just kind of busted as a whole. Oh i know my comment wasn’t putting you down at all. On that point we were right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: It's honestly the reason I've taken to following @Bob Chill. High school/early college me would legit get like a depression after failed winter storms. Life has just sort of developed in a way for me that I still love snow, but I look at the fact that I still got some shovel time in (call me crazy but I enjoy doing it) and then the silver lining is that I didn't get trapped from seeing friends/family for an extended period. Not to say I wouldn't give a kidney for a Jan 2016 again - I might consider it...just that I've changed since the Eastern days. It can be refreshing - I still get bummed - but I try to let it only be for a day or so and just sort of let it roll off my back. At a certain point I just decided enjoying weather and tracking sure beats going on a downer for days after a winter storm that could have been. Yeah dude honestly this winter has really accelerated it for me. It's not worth my mood being ruined for something out of my control, especially something that's becoming rarer and rarer in this area. I was fine like a day after the Miller B, so I definitely don't get as horribly depressed as I used to. Just now, stormtracker said: Congrats. Seriously. I can always admit when I’m wrong. We were the PARA GFS and you were the NAM. I take no pride in it, I wish I was wrong. I just have been through too many of these stupid borderline events in this dumb city to know how it's gonna shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And yet Texas gets snow...Seattle gets snow. Explain that, lol Taking this to banter. This is what annoyed me the most this winter. It's not like it's just been super warm or a lack of precip. Places that have way worse snow climos than the DC area have gotten crazy winter weather and we've gotten jack crap for what, like the 4th straight year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Well, on to our next fail. See everybody in the long range thread after this is over in like 3 minutes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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