EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Please don't let this band to the south spilt D.C. Oh we getting split son Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, high risk said: It absolutely accounts for balloon drift. The GPS sensors in the sonde relay lat/lon info at each level, and the data is assimilated at the actual location. 12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Question for the red taggers - I'll tag a few in hopes that I can get an answer. @high risk @WxUSAF @MN Transplant - How does NWS account for the balloon launches drifting in the wind? In other words, say that in a very strong wind the balloon has drifted tens of miles by the time it samples a warm nose in today's case. Not sure if that's even realistic - but when that data is ingested into the models - does it treat the entire sounding as if it was directly above IAD/LWX - or does it account for the data at different levels being taken at potentially different geographic locations? @high risk is correct. Most offices utilize a Sippican GPS radiosonde that has 1 sec or less response with GPS coordinates updated to the nearest 0.0001 of a degree, so it's insanely accurate when properly calibrated. We go through a process prior to sending up the sonde to make sure it's within tolerance levels specified via the company involved. The Upper Air process is very very thorough to have the most accurate data possible for a specific geographic region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Models, tracks, etc, all BS. simply put snow in DC is guilty until proven innocent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I will admit that snow affects my mood - sorry if that makes me a bad person. I will also note that many of the lectures on how snow should not affect mood come from people who live in areas where a butterfly farts and it snows. In any event, and to sum up, I wish it would snow more readily over this way. It used to. The snow is here now in downtown Balt. That is helping my mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, high risk said: It absolutely accounts for balloon drift. The GPS sensors in the sonde relay lat/lon info at each level, and the data is assimilated at the actual location. I figured - but wanted to get the true answer! Thanks! 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: @high risk is correct. Most offices utilize a Sippican GPS radiosonde that has 1 sec or less response with GPS coordinates updated to the nearest 0.0001 of a degree, so it's insanely accurate when properly calibrated. We go through a process prior to sending up the sonde to make sure it's within tolerance levels specified via the company involved. The Upper Air process is very very thorough to have the most accurate data possible for a specific geographic region. The red taggers on here never disappoint. So in "theory" that warm nose being sampled on the LWX/IAD sonde could have actually been sampled a bit away from the launch site? I assume for the purposes of a day like today, it wouldn't have drifted TOO far - and would probably still be representative of the atmosphere above the site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorgitoWX Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I really hate to do it, but you know it must be done. You know it's bad when we're past the Ji level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 That sleet blob SE of DC is literally tracing itself around the DC border...we definitely live in a simulation right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: I figured - but wanted to get the true answer! Thanks! The red taggers on here never disappoint. So in "theory" that warm nose being sampled on the LWX/IAD sonde could have actually been sampled a bit away from the launch site? I assume for the purposes of a day like today, it wouldn't have drifted TOO far - and would probably still be representative of the atmosphere above the site? This is correct. Wx Balloons have specified mins for launch and we increase the amount of He in a balloon based on wx elements during the launch process. It takes less than 10 mins to reach between 850-700 mb, so even with a powerful LLJ, it won't be too far removed from the geographic launch point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I just went outside and it’s downright disappointing to have temps in the 20s and get ice and sleet in Arlington yet again. I’m over this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 The orange and yellows doing the dance around DC as is tradition. Gotta love this city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I figured - but wanted to get the true answer! Thanks! The red taggers on here never disappoint. So in "theory" that warm nose being sampled on the LWX/IAD sonde could have actually been sampled a bit away from the launch site? I assume for the purposes of a day like today, it wouldn't have drifted TOO far - and would probably still be representative of the atmosphere above the site? @MillvilleWx likely has a way better feel for this than I do, but the largest drift is going to be at the upper levels where the winds are stronger, and some drift has already taken place during the ascent. The amount of drift by the time the sonde reaches 850 is much less. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: You all disappoint me more then the crappy frozen ice pellets falling outside my window right now! For the record, I voted no on that stupid WTR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 37 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I will admit that snow affects my mood - sorry if that makes me a bad person. I will also note that many of the lectures on how snow should not affect mood come from people who live in areas where a butterfly farts and it snows. In any event, and to sum up, I wish it would snow more readily over this way. It used to. The snow is here now in downtown Balt. That is helping my mood. I'm dealing with the same. Last week the trend in the wrong direction for Monday worsened my existing depression and I spent most of Friday (or maybe it was Thursday) in bed. Today is not as bad but it still dampens the mood...and I'm a bit depressed about future snow prospects now. There's just this feeling of somebody withholding a bit of happiness from you for no reason at all. And you come in this forum and the "it's not fair!" aura perpetuates itself. And then you look at the calendar...and see Spring isn't far away, and you don't know how to move on from the winter failure. Spring is nice with new beginnings, but knowing that also means a long wait till even a CHANCE at seeing snow--assuming that there will be chances--is a bit depressing. BUT...every year we all find a way to move on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm dealing with the same. Last week the trend in the wrong direction for Monday worsened my existing depression and I spent most of Friday (or maybe it was Thursday) in bed. Today is not as bad but it still dampens the mood...and I'm a bit depressed about future snow prospects now. There's just this feeling of somebody withholding a bit of happiness from you for no reason at all. And you come in this forum and the "it's not fair!" aura perpetuates itself. And then you look at the calendar...and see Spring isn't far away, and you don't know how to move on from the winter failure. Spring is nice with new beginnings, but knowing that also means a long wait till even a CHANCE at seeing snow--assuming that there will be chances--is a bit depressing. BUT...every year we all find a way to move on. Yeah but when we get a 2016 it all seems worth it doesn't it? That's what you get being a snow lover down here, years of madness with days of bliss once every few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Really excited to see the total precip once this is over. The claw is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 F this winter 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Here comes the next screw job. The backend wave will miss to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 This Winter is far worse then last year because at least last year, we knew we wouldn’t get any. This winter is that boy/girl who flirted with you just to leave you hanging every single time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Full on spring tracking mode for me now. Give me 50s-60s & sunny showing up on guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: It's understandable since so many have missed the good snows with every system this winter, and this would have been an amazing thump had it been snow. It's frustrating. Taking this to banter... This is exactly right. I appreciate that this was progged as rain late last week and that we're getting frozen instead - believe me, I really do - but it's all about what's happening right now. And what's happening right now is that MBY got f-slotted again and will end up on the low end of frozen precip totals for yet another storm this winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Birds at the feeder keep coming grabbing some seed and taking off. They are probably like damb this stuff hurts! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Taking this to banter... This is exactly right. I appreciate that this was progged as rain late last week and that we're getting frozen instead - believe me, I really do - but it's all about what's happening right now. And what's happening right now is that MBY got f-slotted again and will end up on the low end of frozen precip totals for yet another storm this winter. I totally agree, gimme a break people saying just be happy it's frozen. This was a great setup for at least a few hours of heavy snow for everyone and we got the rug pulled last minute AGAIN. I'm pissed. We missed out on sick rates for more shitty ice. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 40 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: For the record, I voted no on that stupid WTR. WTR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, EHoffman said: I totally agree, gimme a break people saying just be happy it's frozen. This was a great setup for at least a few hours of heavy snow for everyone and we got the rug pulled last minute AGAIN. I'm pissed. We missed out on sick rates for more shitty ice. The amount of sleet is pretty amazing. It's not very typical to get buckets of sleet like this at once. Not sure about you - but I'm into meteorology for interesting weather. It's why I'm here in severe season and winter a like. I love snow - but I love interesting weather - a massive sleet bomb is meteorologically interesting. But I understand your POV if you were hoping for snow and don't give a s*** about any other type of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Not a great day for the PARA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: The amount of sleet is pretty amazing. It's not very typical to get buckets of sleet like this at once. Not sure about you - but I'm into meteorology for interesting weather. It's why I'm here in severe season and winter a like. I love snow - but I love interesting weather - a massive sleet bomb is meteorologically interesting. But I understand your POV if you were hoping for snow and don't give a s*** about any other type of weather. I would be more satisfied if I was around where you are; you are dumping sleet right now. DC just missed even the heavy sleet returns. I am in for interesting weather for sure, but IMBY this storm wasn't that interesting. I had heavy sleet for like 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The amount of sleet is pretty amazing. It's not very typical to get buckets of sleet like this at once. Not sure about you - but I'm into meteorology for interesting weather. It's why I'm here in severe season and winter a like. I love snow - but I love interesting weather - a massive sleet bomb is meteorologically interesting. But I understand your POV if you were hoping for snow and don't give a s*** about any other type of weather. What if you didn't get a sleet bomb? I'd have been all about it if it had really ripped sleet for hours, but it didn't. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, mattie g said: Taking this to banter... This is exactly right. I appreciate that this was progged as rain late last week and that we're getting frozen instead - believe me, I really do - but it's all about what's happening right now. And what's happening right now is that MBY got f-slotted again and will end up on the low end of frozen precip totals for yet another storm this winter. And not only that - it's not like EVERYONE is missing out. It is the usual crew missing out. On top of all the other misses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I’d punt the Great Blizzard of 2016 10 times out of 10 if it meant I was guaranteed a normal winter annually. Obviously it’s not a choice but what’s the value of a big 24 hour snow (and week of tracking for those inclined to enjoy that aspect) if it means half a decade of garbage? I wouldn't trade 2016 for anything. It's why I go through all of this pain and despair. It was incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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