February Banter 2021

[Wetbulbs88]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok you got your victory lap now stop 

What are you talking about? I'm responding to posts. Plain and simple. I don't see you stepping into the darkness when someone debates with you. The double standard is incredible. And you betray your own ego by thinking I'm taking a 'victory lap'. If you're a true forecaster, being right shouldn't be the goal. It should be finding out the truth. And people are still coming after me for stating facts. It's plain childish. Look at the posts last night. I was on an island, and I happened to be on to something. Now I'm taking heat. 

It's happened several times in the short time I've been back in this sub, and quite frankly, I'm not going to just take crap if it continues. It's frustrating that I'm actually providing some foresight and it's being twisted, not to mention with bitterness. I don't give a sh*t if I'm right or wrong. It's that there's an exclusive culture here, and it's clear as day. 

[North Balti Zen]

<goes to ignore list>

More like MajoNO amirite?

[vastateofmind]

52 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Also...the nice thing about severe season too is the mood in here is way lighter. We miss a severe event and we all kind of shrug it off and talk about EMLs and joke around with each other. 

Winter weenies tend to bring out the low blows, insults and cranky behavior. I can pick out more than a few members of this forum that seem to have completely different personalities in summer versus winter. 

I was really glad when you put up the severe tracking thread a week or so ago -- severe season has become as fun to me as tracking the winter stuff, maybe even moreso, as the lead-up to tracking severe events can be a bit more abbreviated, with less likelihood of a complete shutout.

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

What are you talking about? I'm responding to posts. Plain and simple. I don't see you stepping into the darkness when someone debates with you. The double standard is incredible. And you betray your own ego by thinking I'm taking a 'victory lap'. If you're a true forecaster, being right shouldn't be the goal. It should be finding out the truth. And people are still coming after me for stating facts. It's plain childish. Look at the posts last night. I was on an island, and I happened to be on to something. Now I'm taking heat. 

It's happened several times in the short time I've been back in this sub, and quite frankly, I'm not going to just take crap if it continues. It's frustrating that I'm actually providing some foresight and it's being twisted, not to mention with bitterness. I don't give a sh*t if I'm right or wrong. It's that there's an exclusive culture here, and it's clear as day. 

Never meant to attack and I don't think we are actually arguing different points.  My feeling all along with this storm was needing to max precip from 5-10 am.  Most models, including the Nams gave decent precip in that time frame. The warm nose, even here, was washing out under heavy returns but couldn't sustain them.  The warm nose was real but it was really there on all models.  Most soundings i looked at were right on the edge.  The problem was the max in that morning timeframe went north and by the time the secondary max moved through, we were toast anyway.  

 

Maybe I am taking your points the wrong way and I apologize.  Just trying to discuss a "post mortem" so to speak.

[Stormfly]

By far this storm is the sloppiest of this season.

March is coming, I'm sure there will be more fail.

Anyone remember March 1st, 1980?  Started out great with 7" all snow.  That was a Saturday.

The following Saturday, just. a week later the only snow remaining was piles in lots.  Severe storms that evening (well the severe parts missed us) but warm like May with thunderstorms in the evening.  A week after a legit warning event.  If this March is like that I'm fine with that.

[Kmlwx]

Just now, vastateofmind said:

I was really glad when you put up the severe tracking thread a week or so ago -- severe season has become as fun to me as tracking the winter stuff, maybe even moreso, as the lead-up to tracking severe events can be a bit more abbreviated, with less likelihood of a complete shutout.

It truly becomes just a friendlier, less "misery loves company" group for severe. That thread will probably be dormant for a month or more...For now I've just been occasionally peeking at monthly modeling to see what H5 pattern we might see for the warm months. 

[MDphotog]

11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It truly becomes just a friendlier, less "misery loves company" group for severe. That thread will probably be dormant for a month or more...For now I've just been occasionally peeking at monthly modeling to see what H5 pattern we might see for the warm months. 

To me, I think it has to do with amount of buildup or anticipation of winter storms and the nature of winter storms themselves.  For severe storms, I think most of us going in know that on any given chance, some get them, most will not.  It is what it is.  Plus severe chance isn't something you spend nearly as much time tracking and analyzing (or at least pretend to know how to).  Just check on it, "cool there is chance" and move on.  It is much less of a time/emotional commitment for most I think.

[SnowDreamer]

@The Ole BucketI just want you to know that you have my favorite username on the board by far.

[vastateofmind]

Irony so thick, you need a chainsaw to slice through it...

[George BM]

28 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It truly becomes just a friendlier, less "misery loves company" group for severe. That thread will probably be dormant for a month or more...For now I've just been occasionally peeking at monthly modeling to see what H5 pattern we might see for the warm months. 

...Any potenial H5 patterns standing out to you atm?

[Kmlwx]

12 minutes ago, MDphotog said:

To me, I think it has to do with amount of buildup or anticipation of winter storms and the nature of winter storms themselves.  For severe storms, I think most of us going in know that on any given chance, some get them, most will not.  It is what it is.  Plus severe chance isn't something you spend nearly as much time tracking and analyzing (or at least pretend to know how to).  Just check on it, "cool there is chance" and move on.  It is much less of a time/emotional commitment for most I think.

Agreed - the time spent on winter storms is definitely way more than severe. The amount of times we fail on winter though would tend to argue we should always just assume we'll find a way to fail  

[The Ole Bucket]

26 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

@The Ole BucketI just want you to know that you have my favorite username on the board by far.

Thank you. Though I think, especially for this year, @Warm Nose ought to be considered da real MVP.

[psuhoffman]

45 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

What are you talking about? I'm responding to posts. Plain and simple. I don't see you stepping into the darkness when someone debates with you. The double standard is incredible. And you betray your own ego by thinking I'm taking a 'victory lap'. If you're a true forecaster, being right shouldn't be the goal. It should be finding out the truth. And people are still coming after me for stating facts. It's plain childish. Look at the posts last night. I was on an island, and I happened to be on to something. Now I'm taking heat. 

It's happened several times in the short time I've been back in this sub, and quite frankly, I'm not going to just take crap if it continues. It's frustrating that I'm actually providing some foresight and it's being twisted, not to mention with bitterness. I don't give a sh*t if I'm right or wrong. It's that there's an exclusive culture here, and it's clear as day. 

You are responding to what you created.  People aren't coming at you for no reason unprovoked so stop it with the persecution complex nonsense.  That post I responded to was just picked at random.  I was worried about the warm layer too but I'm not going all over the board this morning while people are disappointed and frustrated saying basically "I told ya so" over and over and over again.   And I am probably guilty of doing some of that in frustration sometimes and I should try to cut it out and tone it down and I admit I have faults but "two wrongs make a right" is a crappy justification.  Lastly, for the record, your NAM comments are a bit much.  The NAM did see the idea of a mid level warm layer first...but it was also WAY WAY WAY off synpitically at range too.  And frankly all the CAM's saw the warm layer the NAM is simply the only one that goes out to 84 hours so yea it "saw it first" I guess.  And the NAM got some stuff way wrong, like the placement of the precip banding...had that super band set up over 95 like the NAM thought last night at 0z DC to Baltimore would have done a LOT better...even if that was all sleet it would have been 3" of sleet!  But we saw that at times it mixed with snow when heavy banding did get east so it would have had some snow...and probably been 4-5" and a win.  But that banding set up NW of 95 and there wasnt steady enough heavy precip for a long enough period to mix out the warm layer...and there wasn't enough precip for sleet to really pile up and accumulate...and so total fail.  But the NAM didnt NAIL it...it was right about the mid level warm layer and wrong about almost everything else!  

[aldie 22]

You know what they say about a warm nose.....cold heart....so true...

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I measured 5.5" of pretty much all snow when I first got up and shoveled off my "measuring spot".  Since then I got 2.5" of half snow/sleet mix for a total of 8" of frozen that fell but the depth everywhere is still only 6.5" due to compacting from the weight of the ice on top of the snow.    But lets assume the 5.5" had higher ratios so is like .45 qpf.  But the 2.5" since is VERY low ratio lets say 5-1 so best guess I was close to 1" qpf up here under that banding...which makes sense because that is what all the guidance said the qpf would be only they had that band along 95 near DC not up here.  

Big surprise that the best banding ended up over fringe land! That never happens!

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I am so glad I don't do this to myself anymore. Not going to lie though I had a moment. Just a short one right now.

 

But really you can't make it up. Just unbelievable bad luck we've had. At some point this bad luck has to end, right? Please PSU, make it stop?

 

 

Hey man how you been?  Was wondering what happened to you this year.  Hope all is well.  

ETA:  It is SOME bad luck...and I also think some of its the pac base state and some of it is AGW.  

[Eskimo Joe]

Well this winter was fun. Time to dust off the ole' fishing rods and get ready for bass season.

[The Ole Bucket]

4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You know what they say about a warm nose.....cold heart....so true...

But he's not been telling lies...

 

 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Well this winter was fun. Time to dust off the ole' fishing rods and get ready for bass season.

I feel bad for quitting already... but man. This was terrible. Bring on the 75° days . Let’s just torch the rest of this “winter”. 

[deer]

Someone check on Ji

[Wetbulbs88]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You are responding to what you created.  People aren't coming at you for no reason unprovoked so stop it with the persecution complex nonsense.  That post I responded to was just picked at random.  I was worried about the warm layer too but I'm not going all over the board this morning while people are disappointed and frustrated saying basically "I told ya so" over and over and over again.   And I am probably guilty of doing some of that in frustration sometimes and I should try to cut it out and tone it down and I admit I have faults but "two wrongs make a right" is a crappy justification.  Lastly, for the record, your NAM comments are a bit much.  The NAM did see the idea of a mid level warm layer first...but it was also WAY WAY WAY off synpitically at range too.  And frankly all the CAM's saw the warm layer the NAM is simply the only one that goes out to 84 hours so yea it "saw it first" I guess.  And the NAM got some stuff way wrong, like the placement of the precip banding...had that super band set up over 95 like the NAM thought last night at 0z DC to Baltimore would have done a LOT better...even if that was all sleet it would have been 3" of sleet!  But we saw that at times it mixed with snow when heavy banding did get east so it would have had some snow...and probably been 4-5" and a win.  But that banding set up NW of 95 and there wasnt steady enough heavy precip for a long enough period to mix out the warm layer...and there wasn't enough precip for sleet to really pile up and accumulate...and so total fail.  But the NAM didnt NAIL it...it was right about the mid level warm layer and wrong about almost everything else!  

i could stop reading after the first sentence. Patently false. I haven't created anything. Show me the post where I created the argument. I'll be waiting. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said:

Someone check on Ji

Ji melting down contributed to the expansive warm layer.

[Hurricanegiants]

I’ll take Weather for $300.

When a Winter Storm Warning that calls for 6-8 inches of snow and then turns into an Advisory with 1-1.5 inch(ES) of pixie dust laced with slush. 
 

What is: The Mid Atlantic from 2016-2021. 
 

Correct. Pick again. 

[The Ole Bucket]

Ah so we have found the REAL warm nose!

[deer]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Ji melting down contributed to the expansive warm layer.

The science seems solid

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Big surprise that the best banding ended up over fringe land! That never happens!

for the record I was NEVER worried about "fringe" with this storm 

[ovechkin]

3 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Lets hope part two overperforms later today/tonight! Still quite a bit of moisture flowing north from the deep south.

Whatever you are smoking please share!  

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, KAOS said:

Not sure I can do this again. Absolutely horrible winter in Pasadena. Sun should be out shortly.

It does take a lot of you, but you gotta do just one more.   We're getting the band back together for one more tour.

[JakkelWx]

The only person that can be more confusing than Ji is Typhoon Tip

[Jebman]

27 degrees with moderate to heavy snow here. Big big aggregates! Picked up another inch on top of the ice on the old snowpack. That's 9.5 inches snow on the season which puts us at something like ~ 1600 percent of normal.