Scraff Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Look at those darker blues out toward Winchester I believe those are darker purples, but either way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, WhiteoutMD said: Another day so I will ask what everyone's opinion is on Downtown DC receiving 3 inches over or under? me under still. Absolutely under. Depends exactly where in the District -- NW DC obviously would have a better shot. But yeah, take the under. Now. If it's snow AND sleet, I'd still probably take the under, but it'd be closer, obviously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, WxMan1 said: Here in the 50 corridor from DC to Annapolis... We get what, 3-4 hours of snow before the flip? Say from 11 to 15Z? Even averaging 1/2"/hr rates (moderate snow), the bar for all snow is 2" here. This is where the NAM3 Ferrier SLR (snow NOT including sleet) is useful. It has 1-2" of snow before the flip. How much sleet after that? Figure a 2-1 ratio (which might be generous), meaning we need 0.50" of liquid to get 1" of sleet. Just can't see this area getting more than 0.50 to <1.0" of sleet based on the projected QPF after 14-15Z. Agree this looks like ice to me especially near the bay like Annapolis south and east. The ice part might start getting play in the media today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, WhiteoutMD said: Agree this looks like ice to me especially near the bay like Annapolis south and east. The ice part might start getting play in the media today FWIW, Ava did mention that those along the bay would see very little in the way of snow accumulation before the flip to sleet, and possibly 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Warning for my area includes very little ice. Pretty bullish with a 6-10 call. I like it. Pretty crazy when you have a ice storm in Shreveport, LA today. You're in a pretty good spot for this event. Can't imagine you won't crack 30" on the year from this, and I'd imagine three 6" events in any given year is an impressive feat in a Nina, even out there. Enjoy!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Thanks Scraff. Now you got me watching TWC again. Look at those snow rates in TX right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Here in the 50 corridor from DC to Annapolis... We get what, 3-4 hours of snow before the flip? Say from 11 to 15Z? Even averaging 1/2"/hr rates (moderate snow), the bar for all snow is 2" here. This is where the NAM3 Ferrier SLR (snow NOT including sleet) is useful. It has 1-2" of snow before the flip. How much sleet after that? Figure a 2-1 ratio (which might be generous), meaning we need 0.50" of liquid to get 1" of sleet. Just can't see this area getting more than 0.50 to <1.0" of sleet based on the projected QPF after 14-15Z. I've been saying to friends that 2-4 Snow/Sleet and then glacier with freezing drizzle afterwards. They are on me now with the warning text of 3-6 but im holding strong here in the Arlington/DC area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, mappy said: FWIW, Ava did mention that those along the bay would see very little in the way of snow accumulation before the flip to sleet, and possibly 33 and rain. Looking at the high location and strength of the wedge across the models... I’d doubt Annapolis sees 33 and rain. Solomons Island? My former alma mater St. Mary’s? Absolutely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, chris21 said: Looking at the high location and strength of the wedge across the models... I’d doubt Annapolis sees 33 and rain. Solomons Island? Mt former alma Mayer St. Mary’s? Absolutely I was generalizing. I agree with your assessment, you will need to be pretty far south, and along the bay, to see 33 and rain, if at all. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, chris21 said: Looking at the high location and strength of the wedge across the models... I’d doubt Annapolis sees 33 and rain. Solomons Island? Mt former alma Mayer St. Mary’s? Absolutely Well factor in whatever climate and microclimate variables one needs to. Its impossible to drill down to EVERY location and know who might warm enough to flip to rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: I've been saying to friends that 2-4 Snow/Sleet and then glacier with freezing drizzle afterwards. They are on me now with the warning text of 3-6 but im holding strong here in the Arlington/DC area. Yeah, I made a 1-3” snow/sleet call to friends for Arlington/DC with light glaze of ice on top. I wanted to go higher but taking seasonal trends into account. I’m excited for the storm unless it turns into 35 and white rain for 8 hours (which seems highly unlikely :)). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Thanks Scraff. Now you got me watching TWC again. Look at those snow rates in TX right now. It’s hard to watch TX of all places getting pummeled. I just hope we get ours tomorrow AM. Then I’ll feel better. Haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: The following percentage of this board lives in Union Bridge: .0000000000000000000000000000000000000001% Indeed. And @mappy also offered a subtle admonishment there to temper the "CRUSH JOB IMBY!" glee that will, I'm sure, land on deaf ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, vastateofmind said: Indeed. And @mappy also offered a subtle admonishment there to temper the "CRUSH JOB IMBY!" glee that will, I'm sure, land on deaf ears. It will. Snow is very much an IMBY thing. But to tell people, who will absolutely not see 4-8" from this, that they are fools for thinking its a disaster.... is a real asshole move. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, mappy said: I was generalizing. I agree with your assessment, you will need to be pretty far south, and along the bay, to see 33 and rain, if at all. Ice for me could be really bad this go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 What's the general ratio for sleet? Is it 3:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yeah, I made a 1-3” snow/sleet call to friends for Arlington/DC with light glaze of ice on top. I wanted to go higher but taking seasonal trends into account. I’m excited for the storm unless it turns into 35 and white rain for 8 hours (which seems highly unlikely :)). Still stings a bit to potentially get over an inch of frozen for so little snow, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 What would cause heavy ice secretion? I had steady rain and 29 last week and the ice was minimal. I figured it was raining too hard for buildup? Do you get more ice with lighter precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, birdsofprey02 said: What would cause heavy ice secretion? I had steady rain and 29 last week and the ice was minimal. I figured it was raining too hard for buildup? Do you get more ice with lighter precip? Correct. A downpour at 31 degrees isn't going to accrete ice very well, it runs off before it has a chance to freeze. A steady drizzle to light rain at 31 degrees is much more impactful. 4 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: Ice for me could be really bad this go around hope it doesn't ice too much for you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Randy messed up on the title for the thread. It should say Feb 18/19 Storm - Party Mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 35 minutes ago, jayyy said: WSW for 4-8” and up to a 0.25”. Yes please. Anybody who calls that a “disaster” is a dang fool. Guess I am a dang fool then. In the Severna Park/Pasadena area every storm this year has underperformed with either hours of pixie dust amounting to virtually nothing or a slop mess with little accumulation. I expect the same thing again for my backyard. Heck, I might change my username to Dang Fool... for wasting my time chasing what amounts to crap. Note: Originally posted this in the main thread by mistake. I have deleted it and moved it here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haudidoody Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: Ice for me could be really bad this go around I'm sweating at the moment. I expect little snow as this setup doesn't support significant snow at DC's latitude, but have an 80 foot pine bent about 35 degrees with the entire crown past vertical hanging toward my house. I'm hoping this is mostly sleet, like the last storm, but definitely very nervous. Of course this would be the year we get ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6-10" for the mountains would push seasonal total over 100". I would like to thank @nj2va for posting his winter wonderland pics the last several years for motivating me to look west! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 55 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Man I miss TWC from the 90's. That was primetime TV then. I used to get made fun of from my family when I was a kid and TWC launched. I watched it like a normal teenager would bing MTV back then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, haudidoody said: I'm sweating at the moment. I expect little snow as this setup doesn't support significant snow at DC's latitude, but have an 80 foot pine bent about 35 degrees with the entire crown past vertical hanging toward my house. I'm hoping this is mostly sleet, like the last storm, but definitely very nervous. Of course this would be the year we get ice. You definitely need to have that tree removed. Pines are notoriously shallow rooted and can come down at any moment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 If the Para is anywhere near correct, it should become the operational model on Saturday as a reward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 27 minutes ago, mappy said: It will. Snow is very much an IMBY thing. But to tell people, who will absolutely not see 4-8" from this, that they are fools for thinking its a disaster.... is a real asshole move. Said poster loves to “teach” others and share wisdom. Par for the course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: I used to get made fun of from my family when I was a kid and TWC launched. I watched it like a normal teenager would bing MTV back then. Glad that wasn’t just me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Said poster loves to “teach” others and share wisdom. Par for the course. It is. I wouldn't have had any issue with the post if he hadn't called people fools for being bummed about their 2-4" and a ton of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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