T. August Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Having a bit of an IMBY disconnect on the PBP --- CRUSHED BEATDOWN OMG --- then I see maps and it is like a foot less for me than areas 30 miles north and west. yep. Icon was terrible. It wouldn’t even top last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Having a bit of an IMBY disconnect on the PBP --- CRUSHED BEATDOWN OMG --- then I see maps and it is like a foot less for me than areas 30 miles north and west. Need a far NW burb thread for these kinds of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM is a sleet/zr bomb for most verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 40 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Whether models are cold or warm, As the 18z NAM run 36 hours from onset goes, so goes the storm. NAM K 12 or 3 Show us where the snow will be on Thursday morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Need a far NW burb thread for these kinds of events. THE NW CREW: SWEET HOLY MOTHER OF ICEBERG DEAR LORD THERE'S GONNA BE AVALANCHES FALLING FROM THE SKY ME: (hopes rising) Me: (flips over to TT) Me: (...) Me: sigh 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 @Baltimorewx wrote: Quote Looks like N&W is likely to do a lot better than I95 and the cities though with whatever falls thursday evening/night...data seems to want to kind of dry slot cities and keep the party going with bands N&W...believable since weve seen that story before Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I know where my yard is. I tracked this thing and contributed, but now is the time to stay in banter for me. I will take my sleet, fr rain, and probably plain rain, and like hate it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Mylar Wizard DIPA for HH. Another good one from Black Flag. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I will keep hugging the Para until it screws me. Coming soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: I know where my yard is. I tracked this thing and contributed, but now is the time to stay in banter for me. I will take my sleet, fr rain, and probably plain rain, and like hate it. It's actually the dry air /subsidence gremlin that has me spooked. We have yet to get to OMG RATES MISSLES PARACHUTES for even five minutes this year at my hood. We've had poor snow growth for each system and falling sand for the most part. Main reason we keep capping out in Balt City below 5 inches (perpetually). Hard to see good bands so close and miss. The tell has been on even the good runs for storms that there is an area of slightly less qpf over balt city each time. Would like to see a qpf bomb for everyone to try and overcome that my way, but distribution of precip will be an issue again, apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: @Baltimorewx wrote: Yup. You know you can hit the multi quote button, come to the banter thread and go make a post and it shows up, right? You don’t have to copy the text then add the member name to do that that came off rude, wasn’t my intention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, mappy said: You know you can hit the multi quote button, come to the banter thread and go make a post and it shows up, right? You don’t have to copy the text then add the member name to do that I have often wondered how people do that. After 11 years here, no, actually, did not know how that worked. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: It's actually the dry slot /subsidence gremlin that has me spooked. We have yet to get to OMG RATES MISSLES PARACHUTES for even five minutes this year at my hood. We've had poor snow growth for each system and falling sand for the most part. Main reason we keep capping out in Balt City below 5 inches (perpetually). Hard to see good bands so close and miss. The tell has been on even the good runs for storms that there an area of slightly less qpf over balt city each time. Would like to see a qpf bomb for everyone to try and overcome that my way, but distribution of precip will be an issue again, apparently. Yeah this has trended colder at the surface, at least. The warm nose aloft is one issue, and that is a beast on the NAMs, the other is how this storm is morphing from a nice front end thump to a one-two punch sort of a deal. There will likely be an area that largely misses out on both if that verifies. The front end is where it is at for places further south/east because there will be legit cold/dry air in place. Just need the goddamn precip to come in hot and heavy to mitigate the warming aloft for a few hours. If it is delayed or light, forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Final call for my two locations Leesburg 4-6" snow 2" sleet 0.10 ice Sykesville 4-7" snow 1" sleet no ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: I have often wondered how people do that. After 11 years here, no, actually, did not know how that worked. Thanks! LOL you’re welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Also, I hate sleet. Y’all can have that shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: :/ I'm pretty sure I've had more winter storm watches than inches of snowfall in this pathetic winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Also, I hate sleet. Y’all can have that shit. Us low landers have grown to accept it, sleet is the poor mans snow. Watch for my sleetman pics on Thursday! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Nice thump for DC-Balt and over this way on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 35 minutes ago, T. August said: Icon sucked for anyone not 30-50 miles nw of the cities. Did DC and Baltimore move? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, mappy said: Also, I hate sleet. Y’all can have that shit. Wait, the other day you said you weren't picky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Did DC and Baltimore move? indeed, to the 2-4” zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, WhiteoutMD said: I am trying to get a feel if this "storm" will actually materialize into something that represents the forecast as it's being portraying. Every other event this season has not really performed as expected or forecasted. 3 would be a meh event in my eyes other might disagree. Our really good storms usually trend better as we lead up to them. We havent had that yet this year until now. This one is trending better with just about every model run. Every other storm threat basically collapsed on the models around this timeframe from starting. Just a gut feeling. But I think this one ends up being a really nice event for just about all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, T. August said: indeed, to the 2-4” zone. Given the advertised strong LLJ and the likely warming from 850-700mb, imo 2-4" is a win along/east of I95 before a flip to sleet/zr. This is far from an ideal set up for the lowlands. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Would now be a bad time to remind everyone in the storm thread that early mix has been a thing this year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Given the advertised strong LLJ and the likely warming from 850-700mb, imo 2-4" is a win along/east of I95 before a flip to sleet/zr. This is far from an ideal set up for the lowlands. Agreed, and the fact that it isn’t ideal is why I am “concerned” about the drier area shown for the cities. We are already not in the best spot. .2-.4 less depicted precip than north and south (horseshoe) isn’t gonna help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 34 minutes ago, T. August said: indeed, to the 2-4” zone. Good thing this is false. You seem not to know where the cities are though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I’m good with 1-2” of snow followed by a sleet bomb. Those can be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Good thing this is false. You seem not to know where the cities are though. Looking at TT, 2.5” of snow for Baltimore followed by sleet, and 3.5” for DC followed by sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, T. August said: Looking at TT, 2.5” of snow for Baltimore followed by sleet, and 3.5” for DC followed by sleet. Oh, you're using the one outlier model. Well, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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