caviman2201 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think we've ever seen this many events fall apart in the last 24-36h. I'm the past it felt like it was the exception, not the rule, that an event fell apart so late. People told stories of last minute fails. What the hell is going on with the models being so consistent in the 2-4d range and then completely unraveling in close? Obviously all that is irrelevant if this thing comes north tomorrow and the confluence is weaker than modeled like it was in the 1/31 event. That time it screwed the cities. This time we need it and watch it not do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 21 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Idk. Better to be adjusting to being correct than to stay stubbornly wrong. If the role was reversed and the model was trending wetter, and it correctly sniffed out a larger storm, then we'd all be raving about how it performed best and "saw it first". Yeah that's fair. Frustration boiling over a bit on my part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think we've ever seen this many events fall apart in the last 24-36h. I'm the past it felt like it was the exception, not the rule, that an event fell apart so late. People told stories of last minute fails. What the hell is going on with the models being so consistent in the 2-4d range and then completely unraveling in close? Obviously all that is irrelevant if this thing comes north tomorrow and the confluence is weaker than modeled like it was in the 1/31 event. That time it screwed the cities. This time we need it and watch it not do it. Feels like that is maybe characteristic of a nina year? We went through that a few years back in a Nina where we could not get it within 5 days. This year within 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 31 minutes ago, CAPE said: Other than maybe Outlaw Josey Wales, its my fave Clint Eastwood movie. The Inlaw Josie Wales is a great Phish/Trey Anastasio acoustic song. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: Yeah that's fair. Frustration boiling over a bit on my part I get it. It's been a frustrating winter for most. At this point, though, the trend for every event to either trend away from us or die as they come east (cold air included) should be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TinGTown Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I have been lurking since the days of Eastern Weather or even before, Had a few tonight. I have lived in DC for 30 years butI haven't logged in forever Obviously I am a novice. I'm no Bob Chill, PSU or a red tagger. Help me get this storm straight after the disappointment of last weekend where we got a warning from the NWS but received 0.0 inches in Georgetown, DC. So we have a storm coming that may or may not bring snow to metro DC. It may be suppressed to the south. Maybe a fish storm. Possible mixing issues. Looking for WAA and rates. It NEEDS rates. Looking at the 850 line. Over running storm. Need banding and have to beat the sun angle. Marginal surface temps, We all hope to get NAMed but we all bow to King Euro. We all want to see the RGEM clown snow map that was dropping 40 inches on us (only to end up with ZERO). Let's take a blend of the GFS, ICON, Canadians, SREFS and look at the nests, We also should lookout for the MESOS in the short term. Cyclogenisis, Bombogenisis, and Frotogenisis will all play a role in how this plays out . Dendrite growth has potential to make this an over producer. It could be puking snow or it could be pixie dust. Take your ciimo into consideration. It may tick north or maybe south, depending on how much of a weenie you are. It's all about trends. I'll take it and call it a winter! Winter is cancelled! Ji is an asshole. Take it to banter. If it verifies, verbatim, its 13 inches for DC. I'm taking a Jeb walk Maybe two. This is obviously just my attempt at humor. I know it's not good. Help me with your favorite quotes over the years! STORM MODE!!! You guys are funny. Stay safe! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Have you guys liked me more the past few weeks lol? I've tried to dial it back a bit despite an old school meltdown today. I think I live in the best area in Virginia for snow so I need to appreciate what I have I guess 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Have you guys liked me more the past few weeks lol? I've tried to dial it back a bit despite an old school meltdown today. I think I live in the best area in Virginia for snow so I need to appreciate what I have I guess I have a feeling you'll be dealing it up over the next few days lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 22 minutes ago, TinGTown said: I have been lurking since the days of Eastern Weather or even before, Had a few tonight. I have lived in DC for 30 years butI haven't logged in forever Obviously I am a novice. I'm no Bob Chill, PSU or a red tagger. Help me get this storm straight after the disappointment of last weekend where we got a warning from the NWS but received 0.0 inches in Georgetown, DC. So we have a storm coming that may or may not bring snow to metro DC. It may be suppressed to the south. Maybe a fish storm. Possible mixing issues. Looking for WAA and rates. It NEEDS rates. Looking at the 850 line. Over running storm. Need banding and have to beat the sun angle. Marginal surface temps, We all hope to get NAMed but we all bow to King Euro. We all want to see the RGEM clown snow map that was dropping 40 inches on us (only to end up with ZERO). Let's take a blend of the GFS, ICON, Canadians, SREFS and look at the nests, We also should lookout for the MESOS in the short term. Cyclogenisis, Bombogenisis, and Frotogenisis will all play a role in how this plays out . Dendrite growth has potential to make this an over producer. It could be puking snow or it could be pixie dust. Take your ciimo into consideration. It may tick north or maybe south, depending on how much of a weenie you are. It's all about trends. I'll take it and call it a winter! Winter is cancelled! Ji is an asshole. Take it to banter. If it verifies, verbatim, its 13 inches for DC. I'm taking a Jeb walk Maybe two. This is obviously just my attempt at humor. I know it's not good. Help me with your favorite quotes over the years! STORM MODE!!! You guys are funny. Stay safe! Based on the length of this post, you’ll fit in just fine here. Welcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 56 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: Ehh don’t beat yourself up. We can call it a tie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 how we looking? Still gonna snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, mappy said: how we looking? Still gonna snow? Like a mofo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, mappy said: how we looking? Still gonna snow? Everything was great until the euro stole all the snow before it even started. The other models are so mad they are protesting by showing nice events. But nobody's listening to them so they'll prob take it away at 0z. Dont blame them really 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 28 minutes ago, Ji said: Have you guys liked me more the past few weeks lol? I've tried to dial it back a bit despite an old school meltdown today. I think I live in the best area in Virginia for snow so I need to appreciate what I have I guess I feel like Monterrey VA is the best place for snow. Other than that I am pleased with this Ji. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 21 minutes ago, Ji said: We're going to will this SOB back Would be pretty epic if that actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Like a mofo What’s your forecast? 6+? 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Everything was great until the euro stole all the snow before it even started. The other models are so mad they are protesting by showing nice events. But nobody's listening to them so they'll prob take it away at 0z. Dont blame them really As long as the icon is still on our side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The most doleful words in weather: warm nose 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: Feels like that is maybe characteristic of a nina year? We went through that a few years back in a Nina where we could not get it within 5 days. This year within 2. I'd be fine with events not getting within 5 days since I don't get my hopes up that far out. I do get my hopes up when every single model shows MBY at 4-6" within 48h. What am I supposed to do, not get excited until it's over? The models have to be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 i would take 6 inches from wave one and happily watch 6 inches for wave 2 fall in DC. win for a lot of us on that NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Weenie fight between psu and loosetoa6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, mappy said: What’s your forecast? 6+? I’m going big 10+. Bringing positivity to this party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, Kay said: The most doleful words in weather: warm nose In this case with the NAM is more like a warm ass that plunks itself down on your couch and refuses to budge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 It's over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 It's not over! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Anyone else wondering what’s going on with losetoa6? Really off punctuation and syntax for someone who usually posts coherently? Weird grudge? ETA: I’m referring to the exchange with psuhoffman in the long range thread. Although the patterns in this thread are starting to make sense... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM is just what I can see happening IMBY. Miss #1 north, miss #2 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 49 minutes ago, wxtrix said: the models don’t make forecasts. They make simulations which meteorologists use to help make forecasts. And a lot of those recent snowfall forecasts have also busted pretty badly in his location. I think the tone of his post was fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 28 minutes ago, H2O said: NAM is just what I can see happening IMBY. Miss #1 north, miss #2 south. I think wave 2 comes far enough north that there is some overlap between the southern boundary of snowfall with wave 1 and the northern boundary with wave 2. But there will likely be a bit of a minimum in between the two maxes from the waves...and yea there is a risk that is near your area. I think wave 2 juices up some though and might give a late save. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Trixie's posts never disappear. And mine do . This place has become alot less fun for me . Trixies post, while abrasive, didn’t call someone a cancer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Trixie's posts never disappear. And mine do . This place has become alot less fun for me . don't let it affect you she is like that to EVERYONE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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