ovechkin Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Well, good night all. Must work in the AM. I can’t remember the last time we were 7 hours from an event in the immediate metro with temps in the low to mid 40s dews already in the mid 20s and it working out, but we will see. Here’s to dynamics, rates and dramatically coolong columns. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Cliff jumpers step back lol Nam'd baby I actually thought the HH Euro was a positive shift at h5 . Maybe its onto something Or I'm on something lol Wait was that you coming out of the dispensary in Westminster earlier today??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: The main thread has been pretty awful imo with negative, doom,gloom,not happening , shit posts . I mostly stayed out of it and worked in my garage on my Grand National. I'll take any snow lol. Hopefully that Baltimore guy will chill out and just enjoy what he gets . Had the guidance trended better today it would have been good. Yesterday was awesome and the thread was a weenie fest. Today the guidance was one nut punch after another and so the thread got negative. There is a correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Had the guidance trended better today it would have been good. Yesterday was awesome and the thread was a weenie fest. Today the guidance was one nut punch after another and so the thread got negative. There is a correlation. I’ve noticed a correlation to weekend posting too. Seems workday posts are better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In this case tho, the storm didnt even really exist in anyone's mind just what, 2 days before the big hit runs? Went from zero to 100 now pulling back to 60. I understand bumming out its not a max potential outcome because potential was there. But potential for no storm or something in between is sandwiched on both sides of the big runs. The largest solution always becomes the benchmark for success with every storm here. And because the largest rarely pan out in reality, every single event becomes very "unfun" no matter what happens There is a lot of truth here...but I think there was a moment yesterday when thinking a 6-10” storm was likely wasn’t a weenie overreaction. Just look at what some red tags were saying! That wasn’t the max run either. There were a couple NAM runs that showed 12-16”. At a point yesterday when all guidance was indicating 6”+ was very likely and things were steadily trending the right way I think setting a bar of a 6” storm was realistic. For some (me) it’s not that easy to just go into “oh well at least it will snow” mode. Maybe that’s because I’m a big storm chaser not a snow chaser. And by big storm it doesn’t have to be 20”. That 3” squall I had last winter was awesome. That was memorable. 6” in 4 hours is memorable. This is just me, and I know most don’t agree and that’s cool, but I could care less about a 2” storm. Yea while it’s happening I’ll enjoy it some and it’s fine but I don’t track for that. Frankly I would rather a winter where I got 10” all in one storm then a winter with 30” that all fell 1-3” at a time. That’s a whole lot of blah to me. But I don’t begrudge anyone enjoying the crap out of 1” of snow. Good for them! I do think a couple were going too far with the debbing. Some were making it even worse then it was. I felt like all I was doing was analyzing the runs same as I always do only since they were bad the observations were “it’s bad”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ve noticed a correlation to weekend posting too. Seems workday posts are better lol Not the same amount of drinking on weekdays as weekends. Nuff said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: There is a lot of truth here...but I think there was a moment yesterday when thinking a 6-10” storm was likely wasn’t a weenie overreaction. Just look at what some red tags were saying! That wasn’t the max run either. There were a couple NAM runs that showed 12-16”. At a point yesterday when all guidance was indicating 6”+ was very likely and things were steadily trending the right way I think setting a bar of a 6” storm was realistic. For some (me) it’s not that easy to just go into “oh well at least it will snow” mode. Maybe that’s because I’m a big storm chaser not a snow chaser. And by big storm it doesn’t have to be 20”. That 3” squall I had last winter was awesome. That was memorable. 6” in 4 hours is memorable. This is just me, and I know most don’t agree and that’s cool, but I could care less about a 2” storm. Yea while it’s happening I’ll enjoy it some and it’s fine but I don’t track for that. Frankly I would rather a winter where I got 10” all in one storm then a winter with 30” that all fell 1-3” at a time. That’s a whole lot of blah to me. But I don’t begrudge anyone enjoying the crap out of 1” of snow. Good for them! I do think a couple were going too far with the debbing. Some were making it even worse then it was. I felt like all I was doing was analyzing the runs same as I always do only since they were bad the observations were “it’s bad”. I still don’t get how I was just “debbing” when I was just saying how each model run was getting drier when they were...when we all know we need the rates. And apparently temps are an issue for some of us. But whatevs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, real said: LWX lowering totals https://twitter.com/nws_baltwash/status/1358355366212468740?s=21 The fact they still have WSWs for the majority of the area is rather comical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Sometimes just knowing where you live for 50 years is a lot more reliable than any model. Lots of smart people here but also lots of modelogy practice. Enjoy the rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Hopefully this stops all the GFS hate- it’s been the most accurate IMBY for the last two storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Hopefully this stops all the GFS hate- it’s been the most accurate IMBY for the last two storms. Yeah it’s probably gonna be really wrong though for the north west crew but for us bay people, it’s been right on lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 8 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Thanks to all the Debs today for the thought provoking discussion. Stoked to wake up to “39/30”, “white rain”, “it’s raining”, “yeah, it’s snowing, but it’s not accumulating”, and all the other classics. Good night! And here we are. Rain 37 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I’m making chili this afternoon for the game and it’s taking all of my energy not to open this bag of Fritos to go with my coffee. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I’ve come to the conclusion that Dundalk is always the last place to change to snow..it’s all the heat from the shit plant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 10 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Imo this isn’t a case of Ji freaking out over some day 7 solution trending 10 miles the wrong way. In the last 24 hours we went from this... with red tags discussing crazy fgen bands with thunder snow and 2” hr rates and possible 10” jackpots being likely to... And praying we can get enough rates to accumulate and hang on to a few inches. Yesterday we were legitimately on the cusp of a significant area wide 6-10” snowstorm and no that wasn’t some pipe dream that people were foolish to believe was possible. All guidance was heading that way and trending towards an amplified storm. Then it got pulled out from under us the last 24 hours. I actually think, given how gut wrenching the trends have been the last 24 hours given we were on the verge of a truly memorable event and now it looks very anemic and ordinary...the lack of freak outs and complaining has been admirable. Even Ji hasn’t blown up the thread at all. PSU, I appreciate you and your knowledge, but I honestly do not care that models reduced qpf. I honestly do not care that it won’t snow 6-10. Snow is snow and however little I get is fine with me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 10 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Final call map below Made significant changes based on latest trends in guidance. Hopefully they revert back a bit and screw over my map. Still a nice storm for some. The metros may never accumulate one inch due to UHI hell. Don't feel like writing a synopsis this evening. I'm tired and have a few things to do tonight. I'll check in after the 00z NAM runs and the HREF starts populating. So much better! The base map makes a huge improvement! Nicely done friend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 29 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’m making chili this afternoon for the game and it’s taking all of my energy not to open this bag of Fritos to go with my coffee. Us too! Mr Map started it last night, all I can do not to eat it for breakfast with my coffee 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Everyone is screwed bc even on top of mount psu, its still 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Gonna pre-mortem this event - needed it to start about five hours earlier. Would have helped I suspect. The bigger totals from a few days ago got it going earlier than it did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Gonna pre-mortem this event - needed it to start about five hours earlier. Would have helped I suspect. The bigger totals from a few days ago got it going earlier than it did. Yes. It used to be like a 1am-9am event. Pushed back like 5 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 51 minutes ago, mappy said: So much better! The base map makes a huge improvement! Nicely done friend. Thanks Katie! Used an ArcGIS site to create my own map from previously made shapefiles. Lots of awesome stuff on that website. I saved my map for future use too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Winds have shifted from straight out of the east to more NE now that the low is getting going. Temp dropped a degree. See what happens now. Maybe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, snowfan said: Everyone is screwed bc even on top of mount psu, its still 32. I lol’d. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dont feel like scrolling back. How much rain is BTR reporting? Do you have to be a jerk about it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: i’m not a weenie, so no, i don’t. there’s a reason scientists set parameters based on math and physics. You must be a blast at parties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 12 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: You will fail hard tomorrow. I've already "failed" my way to over 3" and radar looks great to my SW. I keep you posted on my further failure.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, wxtrix said: lol at getting angry when faced with a simple wx-related fact. I’m not angry at all. You’ve just always escalated things to essentially insulting someone’s knowledge when they say something non-scientific. It gets really old. I know what I said was anecdotal. I don’t need you to tell me that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Do you have to be a jerk about it? Hey man, you decided to grab a hammer and drive a bent nail into the board with rain talk. Cherry picking panels and telling others they were going to fail hard. I pointed out why your point didnt make any sense with real analysis but you kept going and so did I and here we are 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Hey man, you decided to grab a hammer and drive a bent nail into the board with rain talk. Cherry picking panels and telling others they were going to fail hard. I pointed out why your point didnt make any sense with real analysis but you kept going and so did I and here we are So you want to get your point across by rubbing in my face again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, snowfan said: Everyone is screwed bc even on top of mount psu, its still 32. I love psu, but it took everything in me not to blast that post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now