February Banter 2021

[Baltimorewx]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, I'm with you. I was never one to try my hardest to will the storm away. We clearly insulted the storm since last night so it should be no surprise it wants to take its ball and go home. Insulting NWS is just an added bonus so they can stop hoisting warnings completely

I don’t know why me saying I think maybe they could have held off on the issuance of warnings is such an insult or terrible take. You guys don’t like my point of view, cool, great whatever. I really don’t care. I post what I see, as I see it. Maybe I am a pessimist. But the eternal optimistic posters in here are just as annoying to me. To each person do you. 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Just a reminder that people did want casual and that’s kinda what happens

True, I like casual fun even in the face of adversity. My ears cant take much more blackboards and fingernails and stuff tho. Chips fall now. Goal posts are practically cemented. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Sure, if dew points were high and evap cooling already took place. Neither of those apply to the cherry picked panels you posted. I get it. You want it to rain. And it might for a little while before the flip. Make sure you set your alarm to catch the rain before it's gone

I don't want it to rain. I'm just trying to be realistic about what the model shows.

[T. August]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Apparently not. I give up though. Most seem to like to glean from the wonky p-type maps and clown snow maps. So whateva.

It’s better than usual. In the last 2 pages of the disco only 1 person posted a snow map.

Now, it was a depth map, which is an even more egregious offense.

[Bob Chill]

I got a $500 christmas bonus and I'm so upset it wasn't $1k that I dont even want the lame  500 anymore. 

[H2O]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I got a $500 christmas bonus and I'm so upset it wasn't $1k that I dont even want the lame  500 anymore. 

Don’t you hate that?  Like why even GIVE you the money in the first place. I would have quit. 

[mappy]

It’s gonna snow weenies 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, mappy said:

It’s gonna snow weenies 

Rain. Sorry mappy mapperton. Maybe next year

[MillvilleWx]

15 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

This looks problematic to me.

 

 

Why are you bringing up the beginning of the precip time frame? This is well ahead of the 7H frontogenesis band that WILL develop to the south and move north as the SLP along the coast move NE into your latitude. The lowest boundary layer, which has been hammered ad-nauseum, is the biggest deterrent for the higher end potential for the event. It would've taken a potent s/w (which was modeled by most guidance as early as 24 hrs ago) to overcome that type of setup. It's trended a bit weaker with the s/w and in turn has limited the potential of the event. Also, you live in basically DC. You know your climo. Marginal events don't work super well for you unless you get significant cooling aloft down into the lowest confines of the boundary layer. You don't have elevation on your side either, so you can't take advantage of orographic enhancement that happens all the time with these setups. 

You're going to get snow tomorrow, but posting the snow depth map (which I know you have some kind of fascination with despite it being ultra conservative 99% of the time), consistently bad mouthing a setup where it'll snow and likely a few moderate to heavy bands at that, and the fact 70% of this forum lives in a better climo than you should cause you to just sit back and take what's given unless you have some meteorological premise to back up all your posts. Persistent pessimism is not only frowned upon, it's extremely debilitating for others on this site trying to learn. You've been here long enough, you should know that. I'm 1900 miles away putting in time and effort to a forecast I'm gonna nothing from, but I want others to learn from what is being shown on guidance and how to forecast. Please, next time, if the setup starts looking bleak for you, move to Banter, or follow along with nothing to say and enjoy whatever snow falls. People want to learn, and this constant back and forth of the same diatribe and handwringing is absolutely a detriment to anyone who wants to learn the fundamentals of meteorology and the process in forecasting. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Why are you bringing up the beginning of the precip time frame? This is well ahead of the 7H frontogenesis band that WILL develop to the south and move north as the SLP along the coast move NE into your latitude. The lowest boundary layer, which has been hammered ad-nauseum, is the biggest deterrent for the higher end potential for the event. It would've taken a potent s/w (which was modeled by most guidance as early as 24 hrs ago) to overcome that type of setup. It's trended a bit weaker with the s/w and in turn has limited the potential of the event. Also, you live in basically DC. You know your climo. Marginal events don't work super well for you unless you get significant cooling aloft down into the lowest confines of the boundary layer. You don't have elevation on your side either, so you can't take advantage of orographic enhancement that happens all the time with these setups. 

You're going to get snow tomorrow, but posting the snow depth map (which I know you have some kind of fascination with despite it being ultra conservative 99% of the time), consistently bad mouthing a setup where it'll snow and likely a few moderate to heavy bands at that, and the fact 70% of this forum lives in a better climo than you should cause you to just sit back and take what's given unless you have some meteorological premise to back up all your posts. Persistent pessimism is not only frowned upon, it's extremely debilitating for others on this site trying to learn. You've been here long enough, you should know that. I'm 1900 miles away putting in time and effort to a forecast I'm gonna nothing from, but I want others to learn from what is being shown on guidance and how to forecast. Please, next time, if the setup starts looking bleak for you, move to Banter, or follow along with nothing to say and enjoy whatever snow falls. People want to learn, and this constant back and forth of the same diatribe and handwringing is absolutely a detriment to anyone who wants to learn the fundamentals of meteorology and the process in forecasting. 

People ignore facts. That's why I do it.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I may not be the best at explaining things, but what I post does add value.

[T. August]

I think what some aren’t grasping is that unwarranted optimism can be just as irritating as unwarranted pessimism.

[Baltimorewx]

Currently smoking an acid toast cigar at my county park job..maybe it’ll help me be more optimistic 

[Baltimorewx]

8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I may not be the best at explaining things, but what I post does add value.

Hey I make money off my weather opinions so that’s value 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

People ignore facts. That's why I do it.

Here's the issue.  I know you and Baltwx or whoever else feel like you are beat on because people don't like bad news.  Maybe for a small minority.  The problem isn't with saying a model looks bad/worse than the previous run.  Nobody should have an issue with that.  The problem is saying it 5,000 times 5,000 different ways.  The problem is focusing on that and making it your modus operandi.   

For folks like me, we see a half filled glass and folks like you constantly see a half empty glass.   

Damn models trended warmer and drier.  Disaster!  Looks like we'll see all rain.  This is terrible, oh me oh my oh.  Waaaah.  We lost snow, it's over.

OR 

Damn, models trended drier and warmer....but at least we'll see some snow, let's talk about the positives now.  Let's find some mitigating circumstances. The positive is.....we're gonna see some snow!

I know you genuinely feel like you are just being realistic.  And you are.  But we already know what drier and or warmer means.  You beat that horse until that ****er is glue. 

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, T. August said:

I think what some aren’t grasping is that unwarranted optimism can be just as irritating as unwarranted pessimism.

Unwarranted, sure.  But saying it's going to snow, let's enjoy it vs it's still going to snow 2 feet! (When it's not) is not unwarranted optimism.  

[Grothar of Herndon]

Storm thread is becoming Eyore’s kingdom. It is going to snow. Enjoy every flake like it will be the last flake you may ever see.

[Baltimorewx]

On another note, 45F feels so much colder when it’s cloudy. Overcast and feels like winter despite the temp in luterville Timonium

[Mrs.J]

5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

On another note, 45F feels so much colder when it’s cloudy. Overcast and feels like winter despite the temp in luterville Timonium

And windy. 

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Here's the issue.  I know you and Baltwx or whoever else feel like you are beat on because people don't like bad news.  Maybe for a small minority.  The problem isn't with saying a model looks bad/worse than the previous run.  Nobody should have an issue with that.  The problem is saying it 5,000 times 5,000 different ways.  The problem is focusing on that and making it your modus operandi.   

For folks like me, we see a half filled glass and folks like you constantly see a half empty glass.   

Damn models trended warmer and drier.  Disaster!  Looks like we'll see all rain.  This is terrible, oh me oh my oh.  Waaaah.  We lost snow, it's over.

OR 

Damn, models trended drier and warmer....but at least we'll see some snow, let's talk about the positives now.  Let's find some mitigating circumstances. The positive is.....we're gonna see some snow!

I know you genuinely feel like you are just being realistic.  And you are.  But we already know what drier and or warmer means.  You beat that horse until that ****er is glue. 

He doesn't know how to read for context, nor can he correctly interpret relevant data from a model run, and yet he chronically makes crappy posts. 

Idc about pessimistic/optimistic slants, but don't clog up the threads with superfluous BS.

[H2O]

26 minutes ago, mappy said:

It’s gonna snow weenies 

I’m confused. Do you mean:

Its going to snow, weenies! 
or

Its going to snow weenies. Like links of meat in casings falling from Ballpark clouds

 

please help explain

[Baltimorewx]

4 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

And windy. 

Yes but the wind has died out here allowing me to partly enjoy this cigar lol

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Someone else can be roasted for posting the GFS.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

I’m confused. Do you mean:

Its going to snow, weenies! 
or

Its going to snow weenies. Like links of meat in casings falling from Ballpark clouds

 

please help explain

WSW just issued.  Weenie Storm Warning

[RDM]

What the heck is going on in the main Storm Thread?  Way too many posts that are straight up banter.  Many of the posters need to read more, post less and/or move it here.  Especially a select few who are not getting the hints from several others trying to keep things proper.  If someone wants to just be a Deb, avoid being a dweeb and bring here.  

In the end, most everyone here is going to get at least SOME snow!  One would think that would be the grounds for some more positive atmospherics!

[Baltimorewx]

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Someone else can be roasted for posting the GFS.

It continues to not be good that’s for sure

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Someone else can be roasted for posting the GFS.

You post it.   Hey guys, GFS looking like [insert factual observation here].    Easy. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, RDM said:

What the heck is going on in the main Storm Thread?  Way too many posts that are straight up banter.  Many of the posters need to read more, post less and/or move it here.  Especially a select few who are not getting the hints from several others trying to keep things proper.  If someone wants to just be a Deb, avoid being a dweeb and bring here.  

In the end, most everyone here is going to get at least SOME snow!  One would think that would be the grounds for some more positive atmospherics!

Well, I gave yall the power and asked and the consensus was to keep it casual.   Hey, I learn from my mistakes.  Prob won't do that again.  

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

It continues to not be good that’s for sure

See? how hard was that.   Now, any upsides?  

[RDM]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Here's the issue.  I know you and Baltwx or whoever else feel like you are beat on because people don't like bad news.  Maybe for a small minority.  The problem isn't with saying a model looks bad/worse than the previous run.  Nobody should have an issue with that.  The problem is saying it 5,000 times 5,000 different ways.  The problem is focusing on that and making it your modus operandi.   

For folks like me, we see a half filled glass and folks like you constantly see a half empty glass.   

Damn models trended warmer and drier.  Disaster!  Looks like we'll see all rain.  This is terrible, oh me oh my oh.  Waaaah.  We lost snow, it's over.

OR 

Damn, models trended drier and warmer....but at least we'll see some snow, let's talk about the positives now.  Let's find some mitigating circumstances. The positive is.....we're gonna see some snow!

I know you genuinely feel like you are just being realistic.  And you are.  But we already know what drier and or warmer means.  You beat that horse until that ****er is glue. 

Laughing out loud here...  That's a classic Randy!  Could be the start of a new meme.  Most don't know where hide glue comes from.  Been around for thousands of years...