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1/31 - 2/2 Obs. / Nowcast


TheSnowman
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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

From Stein’s article about the odd totals near the coast 

D7EF6BDE-695D-40CB-90A3-89EB8868BEAA.jpeg

Love me some coastal front. Getting blizzard conditions with a ESE wind was new to me as the front sat just a mile to my NW late that night.  Don't think I have seen trees pasted on the ESE side before up here 

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9 hours ago, DotRat_Wx said:

LBSW

20210202_215902.jpg

that little "peninsula" of blue in central NH was on most of the models for several days leading up to the storm. what was the impetus for that? Like, what would cause that gap in between the yellow/orange to the north and south?

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4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Still snowing only a 4-6 hour break yesterday midday now 52 of 56 hours of snow now. 18.8” after adding another .8” last night.  This is Kevin’s infamous days and days of snow finally, it does actually happen! 

It happens a couple times in most winters.. most people just don’t realize it 

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32 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

that little "peninsula" of blue in central NH was on most of the models for several days leading up to the storm. what was the impetus for that? Like, what would cause that gap in between the yellow/orange to the north and south?

I think we were really looking at a decaying band of deformation lift north and weaken, but then a second spoke of vorticity rotated around and gave western ME a bunch of QPF yesterday. While it was sleet near the coast, it stayed all snow farther inland.

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Try nailing a forecast that had 22 inches in Newburyport on the ocean but nada in Gloucester 10 miles south or 12 inches in Westerly RI but 2 on the coast in Charleston RI 7 miles away.

Also the gradient within Tolland city limits was insane. A five inch gradient in one town, ALMOST unheard of. Can’t be expected to nail that.

 

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9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Mod Snow. It doesn’t want to end. Putting amounts aside, this is the greatest storm of my career...it feels like deep Alaska.

sure does....I have been watching an episode or 2 of Life Below Zero every night....wait until the artic unloads, it will look and feel like it for a bit

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Try nailing a forecast that had 22 inches in Newburyport on the ocean but nada in Gloucester 10 miles south or 12 inches in Westerly RI but 2 on the coast in Charleston RI 7 miles away.

And not only that, but BOX could get quite good if they only ever had to worry about just KTOL or a single point. With thousands of 1x1km grids to forecast for there is always going to be some element of smoothing across sharp gradient areas. 

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Added 4.0" after 7 AM yesterday for a 9.5" total.  Odd sequence for that 4", with tiny rimey flakes thru 1 PM, 30 minutes of quarters-plus feathers for about 3/4" then back to the tiny stuff.  BY 4 precip was all but stopped and when I went out to clear the driveway at 5 there were little rime things rattling off my jacket.  Finished at 6:05 in S+ with 1" new where I'd started and another 1/2" by accumulation's end at 7.  The 1st 5.5" was 10:1, the later 4" was barely over 5:1, with 0.77" LE.  Pack at 16" this morning, right on the average for the date though I expect some settling to maybe 14" by tomorrow night.  My old NNJ hometown got 18-24.  

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think the forecast they had in borderline areas was too aggressive, but yeah as far as the sharp gradient...good luck with that. 

It's tough when you have multi-model guidance showing what looked like a good hit.  My takeaway from the setup, respect the firehose easterly winds lowering snow ratios/totals along the cost when 925mb temps are below 2C.  

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