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1/31 - 2/2 Obs. / Nowcast


TheSnowman
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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This event did not dissapoint.

Nope...not in the NW and W suburbs/exurbs it didn’t.

Definitely an old school 128 to 495 storm. 

Looks like about 15.5” in Holliston...though honestly it would prob be 3-4” more if the snow didn’t fall “in the wrong order”...it was absolute 20 to 1 blower powder for the first half of the event and then it went to slightly denser but still powdery snow...and finally it went to paste. That prob helped compact things down quite a bit despite the insane rates. Hopefully we limp home with a few more. 

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23 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I can tell you that it is just now raining in Attleboro, but it is still snowing in  Cumberland.  And in both places it looks like a small insignificant snowstorm came.  

Where I came from, in the mid-Atlantic a lot of people would appreciate a 6” storm even if it was less than expected.
 

I’m starting to get a little more spoiled now that I’m up here, but it’s the closeness to those 12”+ totals that really gets to me.

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10 hours ago, Drz1111 said:

As an aside, if I ever went back to school the project I want to do is applying this to the west to see if you can use it to untangle the different rain shadows and such.  The simple rain shadow / terrain explanation doesn't do a very good job of predicting Western climate. 

If ever you think about it seriously, talk to the NWS Burlington team. They do serious work in this area on nearly a daily basis during the winter. For example, here’s their AFD from this evening:

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020336
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1036 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Accumulating snow will make for difficult travel conditions
across the area, especially during the Tuesday morning commute.
Southern areas will only see light snow Tuesday night, but
northern areas will have the best chance for accumulating snow
and continued difficult travel conditions through Wednesday.
Overall looking at six to twelve inches of snow tonight through
Tuesday night with slightly less amounts for portions of the
Saint Lawrence Valley and parts of northeast Vermont.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1003 PM EST Monday...Overall, no significant changes were
made to the forecast. Only small tweaks were needed to speed up
arrival of precipitation by an hour so as snow is already being
reported at Rutland and Lebanon, NH. This precipitation shield
will continue to move into northern NY and VT overnight.
Interesting to note that east of the Greens temps and dewpoints
are in the 20s while the northern Champlain Valley and northern
New York remain firmly in the single digits/low teens. Have
adjusted the temp forecast accordingly based on these latest
observations. Still thinking that as the warm front continues to
move northward these locations will warm into the 20s by
morning.

Previous Discussion...Forecast remains on track for widespread
snow event across the North Country tonight through Tuesday
night. Only change to headlines will be to include eastern
Clinton County in the Winter Storm Warning. All other warnings
and advisories remain in place. Bottom line much of the area
will see six to twelve inches of snow with slightly less amounts
over parts of the Saint Lawrence Valley and northeast Vermont.

Snow spreads from south to north tonight and especially after
midnight and continuing through the morning commute on Tuesday.
Looking at a period of difficult travel conditions during this
time period. Main mechanism for the snow during this period will
be pronounced 700 mb frontogenesis lifting northward across the
area. In addition, favorable alignment of omega and snow growth
support the idea of a burst of steadier snow...around an inch
per hour. The snow will taper off from south to north during the
late morning and afternoon hours with best forcing lifting to
the north. However, flow will become more northerly Tuesday
night and moisture wrapping around the upper low will support
the idea of snow becoming more widespread across far northern
New York and northern Vermont. Northerly flow and very low
Froude numbers support the idea that snow should also be in the
Champlain Valley and not just confined to the higher terrain.

&&

 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nope...not in the NW and W suburbs/exurbs it didn’t.

Definitely an old school 128 to 495 storm. 

Looks like about 15.5” in Holliston...though honestly it would prob be 3-4” more if the snow didn’t fall “in the wrong order”...it was absolute 20 to 1 blower powder for the first half of the event and then it went to slightly denser but still powdery snow...and finally it went to paste. That prob helped compact things down quite a bit despite the insane rates. Hopefully we limp home with a few more. 

Must be 18"+ in Wilmington now...heading back

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I know Ray hates LBSW or whatever it is, but rates are starting to mean more to me. It’s how the storm materializes. Sure maybe you don’t get 3’, but a foot in four hours? That’s impressive.

Got to be honest, most LBSW are not this prolific...this may be my best one ever.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Got to be honest, most LBSW are not this prolific...this may be my best one ever.

It sort of had an elongated s/w with a low developing on it and a back bent WF. Probably not the classic LBSW that get DC and stall east or Wallops Island. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Got to be honest, most LBSW are not this prolific...this may be my best one ever.

This one was a bit unique in that it had a really good sig on the north side of the ML warm front. That firehose basically getting lifted over the top of the temp gradient...pretty good recipe for big time rates that can sustain for several hours rather than relying on putrid decaying mesobands. 

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12 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Takeaway for the coast: either the 900 mb level or the ground level was too warm to accumulate, but I don't know which. Probably both. 

The ground was pretty cold leading up to this so I would think the 900 were just a degree or two too warm. that may be the difference right there. As of now, I have very close to 20" right now but a little gun shy to report it to the National Weather Service. Concerned it may look too high or a little aggressive with the surrounding areas. But, I'll wait a little bit.

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