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1/31 - 2/2 Obs. / Nowcast


TheSnowman
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25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s pretty much all the same thing once it gets up here. The mini “firehose” so to speak. The waa is coming into the midlevels from the east. It looks like a meh storm for us no matter how you slice it unless the wildcard happens...we need those CMC models to verify with the tertiary low backing in toward the seacoast. Some of the other models are trying to do that now too, but they’re too far offshore.

Yes but why would we be forecasted for 6-8 on a 1"+ qpf.  What I don't understand in the snow hole in Merrimack county with more to our immediate east and our immediate west.  We don't get shadowed or down sloped in east flow, but do in nne flow. sorry for another question. GYX: 

Starting first with the main band...later today into tomorrow
morning, upper level jet dynamics will phase well with mid-level
mesoscale forcing along a warm frontal axis sailing north over
the region...producing a band of moderate to heavy snowfall.
This band crosses the Mass border into southern NH by this
evening with heavy snowfall (rates of 1-2"/hr) and impacts to
the evening commute. The band will track north through the area
overnight, reaching the international border by mid-day
Tuesday. The strongest forcing and thus highest snowfall totals
with this band will be over southern zones and along the coast,
closest to the mid- level circulation near the Mid- Atlantic
coast. Hires model guidance gives 1-1.5" of QPF for these
areas... with snow ratios around the climatological norm, this
produces up to around a foot of snow for southern New Hampshire
into southwest Maine with 6-8" a good bet elsewhere. 
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-5°F / -11°F here just south of Burlington. Probably not much mixing with the storm here. :^P  Virga is now only 3 counties to the south away. It’s going to be a long day of radar hallucinations waiting. 
 

For those of you struggling with the NWS “upgrade” of the radar page, here’s my favorite mosaic from Univ of Washington. Change the number of frames there in the link for longer or shorter loops and to auto if you want it to auto refresh every 6 minutes:
https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?radar_us_full+30+-noauto


And, if any of you want to pass the virga watching time and read up on Froude numbers for blocked flow, here’s an excellent primer from the team at NWS Burlington:

https://www.weather.gov/btv/froude

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16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Yes but why would we be forecasted for 6-8 on a 1"+ qpf.  What I don't understand in the snow hole in Merrimack county with more to our immediate east and our immediate west.  We don't get shadowed or down sloped in east flow, but do in nne flow. sorry for another question. GYX: 


Starting first with the main band...later today into tomorrow
morning, upper level jet dynamics will phase well with mid-level
mesoscale forcing along a warm frontal axis sailing north over
the region...producing a band of moderate to heavy snowfall.
This band crosses the Mass border into southern NH by this
evening with heavy snowfall (rates of 1-2"/hr) and impacts to
the evening commute. The band will track north through the area
overnight, reaching the international border by mid-day
Tuesday. The strongest forcing and thus highest snowfall totals
with this band will be over southern zones and along the coast,
closest to the mid- level circulation near the Mid- Atlantic
coast. Hires model guidance gives 1-1.5" of QPF for these
areas... with snow ratios around the climatological norm, this
produces up to around a foot of snow for southern New Hampshire
into southwest Maine with 6-8" a good bet elsewhere. 

You’re not in that 1” QPF zone...it’s MHT south. Some of the models are giving us under 0.50” QPF. Firehose is a bad term to use with this...it hasn’t really looked like that for awhile. We have a quick moving arc of fronto moving through that gives us some snow and that’s about it. There may be some coastal front goodies near the coast, but up here the low level flow is more NE which is downsloping for us. The more E flow is in the mid levels. Sometimes the snow hole gets overdone by the models, but it’ll be there to some extent. Just pray to the RGEM.

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