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1/31 - 2/2 Obs. / Nowcast


TheSnowman
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From wdrag on the NYC forum.

Good morning: straight cut and paste on the NOWcast for today only. Left the graphics on the topic thread.  Dangerous storm today. Safety first.  DPW's and first responders need priority. Recovery begins tomorrow. Difficult for me to understand why no bans on travel today (10A-10P)in NNJ/ne PA.  

Sleet up to Allentown early today and so when precip lighter this morning, sleet could mix in to LI/NYC but you should be good for several hours of 1/4S+BS and 1"/hour snowfall rates as the temps rise into the 30s...already above freezing parts of e LI. Not ideal lift in the dendrite zone for LI but good enough. No matter, take what you can get there. Tonight I see little way that is snows on LI as max lift has shifted nw of I95 and the deep ice nuclei seeding from CI is gone (dry slot) with the only hope that salt nuclei might be able to keep a little snow going there. 

Expecting per modeling 15-20 more inches between 6A and 10PM NNJ (especially Sussex/Passiac/Morris counties),  ne PA near KMPO and interior se NYS with another half foot 10P tonight-sunrise Wednesday. Drifts to at least 4 feet ridges. 

Damaging wind and I think big power outages this afternoon-evening from combined wet snow load of 6"snow on trees/wires and gusts probably 55-70 MPH on LI (even NYC though I think the 70MPH is reserved for ISP east.) and 40-55 MPH elsewhere in our forum just n and w of NYC.  

Coastal flooding: looks like 3-4 successive high tide cycles beginning late this morning-midday with the first minor or moderate, the midnightish tonight high tide moderate to major ; and then followed by two minors tomorrows high tide cycles

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Just now, dendrite said:

7.7° overcast 

I can understand if we get substantially lower amounts once the coastal banding starts to crank But I’m not sure why Merrimack County would get lower amounts from the initial warm advection band coming straight from the south. That should be fairly uniform and GYX is saying 1 to 1.25 in that band. Why would we do worse on a van moving straight up from the south?

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7 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

2 inches at the shop in Simsbury...kind of surprised considering the radar. can't wait to see the heavier stuff 19 Degrees

This reminds me so much of that Morch 2013 storm. Radar never looked overly impressive, yet many of us racked up 20-26”. 2” already here .Respect the hose 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This reminds me so much of that Morch 2013 storm. Radar never looked overly impressive, yet many of us racked up 20-26”. 2” already here .Respect the hose 

Radar will fill in. Whats your call for your hood? I am amazed at the modeling differences at go time.

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The worst of it here will come when the snow turns to slop tonight. It will be the third time this winter where I have to exchange my snow blower for a shovel so I can lift water logged garbage. Only hope is that the CT valley snow hole extends eastward. Guess I'm getting too old to enjoy this kind of storm. Was surprised to see temps in mid 30's tonight with a changeover to mixed. What a change from last night!

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Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

The worst of it here will come when the snow turns to slop tonight. It will be the third time this winter where I have to exchange my snow blower for a shovel so I can lift water logged garbage. Only hope is that the CT valley snow hole extends eastward. Guess I'm getting too old to enjoy this kind of storm. Was surprised to see temps in mid 30's tonight with a changeover to mixed. What a change from last night!

I think you're really over-selling this phase-change.

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8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I can understand if we get substantially lower amounts once the coastal banding starts to crank But I’m not sure why Merrimack County would get lower amounts from the initial warm advection band coming straight from the south. That should be fairly uniform and GYX is saying 1 to 1.25 in that band. Why would we do worse on a van moving straight up from the south?

It’s pretty much all the same thing once it gets up here. The mini “firehose” so to speak. The waa is coming into the midlevels from the east. It looks like a meh storm for us no matter how you slice it unless the wildcard happens...we need those CMC models to verify with the tertiary low backing in toward the seacoast. Some of the other models are trying to do that now too, but they’re too far offshore.

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