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1/31 - 2/2 Obs. / Nowcast


TheSnowman
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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Dual pol has a melting layer in there?

 

Just now, Mr. Windcredible! said:

Really seems to be the sweet spot. Looks like some bright banding just to the south. Lot of reports of sleet from Bucks/Montgomery county and down into Philly.

Yeah some of those echoes are removed just NW of the melting layer it seems. Pounding.

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8 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

GYX chiseled us down from 9 to 7". Wake me up when we get a real storm

I'll take the over on that. We're not going to see the insane numbers that are piling up south of here (we rarely do when the MA is really hammered), but I think a foot is realistic.

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Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

It's struggling to acum here in Brighton. It wants to. It's flipping from good to bad rates but a little too warm right now. 

Do or die time on the coast there is about 4-5pm or so onward....that's when the really good lift with the cross-hair sig moves in.

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Just now, bobbutts said:

28 OVC.  Not all that impressed looking at models.  Just based on that I'd say 4-8" for Concord NH area.  Hopefully I'm missing the meteorology that causes us to get more.

You’re not missing anything...run of the mill. So I’m cheering on a bust on the low side. 

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19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Actual ice pellets? My guess is some convectively rimed flakes in that band. 

A lot of forecast soundings have the biggest lift below the DGZ, would set up riming well.

7 minutes ago, PWMan said:

I'll take the over on that. We're not going to see the insane numbers that are piling up south of here (we rarely do when the MA is really hammered), but I think a foot is realistic.

Relatedly, the above response to Brian is what I'm seeing on most modeling for our area. We're going to want a more RAP/HRRR scenario of strong lift verifying higher in the column to juice ratios. A foot is realistic, but I am expecting most totals to be just under.

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