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1/31 - 2/2 Obs. / Nowcast


TheSnowman
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  On 2/1/2021 at 7:44 PM, dendrite said:

Dual pol has a melting layer in there?

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  On 2/1/2021 at 7:46 PM, Mr. Windcredible! said:

Really seems to be the sweet spot. Looks like some bright banding just to the south. Lot of reports of sleet from Bucks/Montgomery county and down into Philly.

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Yeah some of those echoes are removed just NW of the melting layer it seems. Pounding.

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  On 2/1/2021 at 7:58 PM, bobbutts said:

28 OVC.  Not all that impressed looking at models.  Just based on that I'd say 4-8" for Concord NH area.  Hopefully I'm missing the meteorology that causes us to get more.

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You’re not missing anything...run of the mill. So I’m cheering on a bust on the low side. 

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  On 2/1/2021 at 7:40 PM, dendrite said:

Actual ice pellets? My guess is some convectively rimed flakes in that band. 

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A lot of forecast soundings have the biggest lift below the DGZ, would set up riming well.

  On 2/1/2021 at 7:52 PM, PWMan said:

I'll take the over on that. We're not going to see the insane numbers that are piling up south of here (we rarely do when the MA is really hammered), but I think a foot is realistic.

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Relatedly, the above response to Brian is what I'm seeing on most modeling for our area. We're going to want a more RAP/HRRR scenario of strong lift verifying higher in the column to juice ratios. A foot is realistic, but I am expecting most totals to be just under.

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